Philly @ G.B. Week 1

[BigFatLooza]

Hey guys, I'm curious about your opinions on this game. I'm looking to drop BIG on just one game for the opening week and Philly -3 is my strongest play. Even though the Eagles looked HORRIBLE against Pitt the other day and the Pack has looked pretty good thus far, I still like Philly. As bad as Philly's D looked against Pitt, I have a hard time believing the Packers' O will be able to exploit them. Favre is probably good for a couple of picks in this game and it is still uncertain who will be their starting RB going into the regular season. On the other hand, the Eagles' biggest question this offseason was McNabb, but so far this preseason he has played pretty well and looks very comfortable out there. The Eagles have covered the past few times they played the Pack including last season when Philly beat G.B. 31-9 on Monday Night (The game was @ Philly, but Westbrook didn't play).

Thoughts?

 

[ThomasJ]

A couple of stats concerning Philly@GB

Since 89 Philly is 11-2 ats and 9-4 su, the o/u was 4-9

they haven't been a road fav since 90 and 91 so I won't bore you

More recently since wk 1 03 Philly is 4-0 ats and su and 1-3 o/u

Of those 4 games only one was in gb and Philly won outright as 4.5 point dogs 17 -14 wk 10 2003 a Monday nighter

I like your pick here but the line is -3 +103 at pinny and that worries me a little as the opener was 3.5. Seems to me like this line should be 5 or 6. I'd keep an eye on that line to see what's going on for awhile but don't let the 3 get away from you, if starts moving away on the ml you better grab it if that's who you like.

Tom

 

[BigFatLooza]

A couple of stats concerning Philly@GB

Since 89 Philly is 11-2 ats and 9-4 su, the o/u was 4-9

they haven't been a road fav since 90 and 91 so I won't bore you

More recently since wk 1 03 Philly is 4-0 ats and su and 1-3 o/u

Of those 4 games only one was in gb and Philly won outright as 4.5 point dogs 17 -14 wk 10 2003 a Monday nighter

I like your pick here but the line is -3 +103 at pinny and that worries me a little as the opener was 3.5. Seems to me like this line should be 5 or 6. I'd keep an eye on that line to see what's going on for awhile but don't let the 3 get away from you, if starts moving away on the ml you better grab it if that's who you like.

Tom

Thanks Tom! I appreciate the input. Now that you mention it, I think the line did in fact open up at -3.5, which means more bets are on Green Bay. And I also thought the line would be up to Philly -5 by now! I definitely like to bet against the public, but I'm not sure if it's public money or wise guy money that moved this line from -3.5 to -3. I'm going to assume it is the public that's all over Green Bay because of McNabb's injury and the fact that Favre is returning for another season (even though I look at Favre as a liability at this point). After Philly's poor performance against Pitt the other day and the Packers' impressive preseason performance thus far, I am hoping more of the public will be betting on Green Bay. I'm hoping this line will drop to -2.5 or maybe even -2.....

 

[ThomasJ]

Just did a quick check using a 4 gm rolling avg using end of the year data 2006. Both teams finished strong with GB out of the playoffs.Using my formula I figure the line to be pk using those stats. I think that is where the confusion comes in here for the public: Philly went 4-0 su and 3-1 ats while GB also went 4-0 su and 3-1 ats. Philly was in the fight of their life trying to make the playoffs while GB was playing an uninterested Chi in wk 17 and Det, Minny and SF before that.

I see value with those misconceptions in play here and I'm pretty sure this line won't go down to 2.5 and if it does I'm on it. Feel like I'm missing something here but I only just gave it a brief look, It deserves an in depth peek. Also Driver got hurt last week and he his doubtful for the opener,,, don't get it should be 4 or 5

Tom

 

[FirstnGoal]

Without an in-depth look at the game the Eagles -3 looks pretty good to me at this time.

I think that Brett Favre and the Packers home-field advantage may be getting too much respect from the oddsmakers in this one. The Packers have some quetionmarks on the offensive side of the ball with Donald Driver being questionable at this time and given the state of the Packers backfield with Ahman Green gone and Vernand Morency still sidelined with a knee injury. Morency has a chance to play in the opener but hasn't seen the field this preseason due to his injury. Rookie Brandon Jackson has been inpressive at times but suffered a cuncussion in practice just recently. However, Jackson is a big liability for the Packers because of his blocking and inability to pick up the blitz which won't bode too well against an Eagles defense that loves to blitz from all angles under DC Jimmy Johnson.

 

[Emersonboozer]

The -3 looks way too easy for the obvious reasons but you have to look at Andy Reids Eagles record in season openers. Alot of emotion in openers and Dmac may come out flat and give the Packers some hope. If this game wasnt an opener Id be with you. Goodluck

 

[Gmarco]

I am not sure why Dmac would come out flat, he will be in the running for comeback player of the year.

I really think this game has under written all over it. Johnson will blitz and bend but not break all season. GB does not have a stellar RB to exploit the Eagles run defense weakness. Im not sure what the status of Driver is, but the eagles strength is in Sheppard and S. Brown. So in that sense, I see GB scoring 13-17 points.

On the other side of the ball, S. Andrews and TE LJ Smith are coming off injuries and have not played at all this preseason. They will be rusty. The eagles run game will suffer not only from that, but also from the GB front 7, which might be one of the most underrated in the NFC. There corners, physical, Woodson and Harris will give Brown and Curtis trouble. I see the Eagles winning 20-13 or 17-13 type of game that will go down to the wire.