Looking for help! Leaning on taking the philly's -150. I rely on this site for feedback and good information. Thanks
Philly vs. T.B. Opinions on this game?
- Thread starter Birdmann33
- Start date
I understand the temptation to take the phillies in this spot, but I think there are other games that may provide better value. There is no doubt that tampa is a bad team, but the truth of the matter is that they are playing decent baseball of late (won 3 of 4, and four of last six), while the phillies have not (losing 4 of last five and seven of last nine).
The only reason I would not back tampa is because of how bad rekar is, but he has won the last two out of three against the phillies. The phillies have only won three out of chen's last nine starts, and in those wins they give him 8.3 runs in support, but with the bad play of late will they be able to put up that kind of run support? That's a question I would not be willing to bet on it.
Even the total is a bit shaky as the D-rays cannot hit lefties, and seven out of the last ten in this series went under (since 1998) Bill Miller up against the 9.5 has the O/U at 6/13.
However the over has been hot in Tampa as you can see in these trends....
10-2 o/u last 12 games
15-5 o/u last 20 home games
4-1 o/u @ home on Wednesday this season
9-2 in the Rays last 11 overall.
6-2 in Rekar's last eight starts this season
the over has been kind to the phillies too..
13-4-1 o/u last 18 games
Chen's last three starts have played over.
I would pass on both the side and the total. If I had to make any play on this game it would be to take the Devil rays plus the money.
I hope this helps...
JT
Sneaks
[This message has been edited by JT Sneaks (edited 06-13-2001).]
The only reason I would not back tampa is because of how bad rekar is, but he has won the last two out of three against the phillies. The phillies have only won three out of chen's last nine starts, and in those wins they give him 8.3 runs in support, but with the bad play of late will they be able to put up that kind of run support? That's a question I would not be willing to bet on it.
Even the total is a bit shaky as the D-rays cannot hit lefties, and seven out of the last ten in this series went under (since 1998) Bill Miller up against the 9.5 has the O/U at 6/13.
However the over has been hot in Tampa as you can see in these trends....
10-2 o/u last 12 games
15-5 o/u last 20 home games
4-1 o/u @ home on Wednesday this season
9-2 in the Rays last 11 overall.
6-2 in Rekar's last eight starts this season
the over has been kind to the phillies too..
13-4-1 o/u last 18 games
Chen's last three starts have played over.
I would pass on both the side and the total. If I had to make any play on this game it would be to take the Devil rays plus the money.
I hope this helps...
JT
[This message has been edited by JT Sneaks (edited 06-13-2001).]
I concur. Philly is playing their worst for the last week or so while Tampa Bay has been playing some of their best ball. It's like one of the first lessons I learned when I started day trading in equity options. "THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND" ... and don't ever bet against it!
JT,
WOW!! Thank you!! great insight. I try to only play one game a day, and if I do not see anything I pass for the day. Its hard because I do not have the same control when it comes to baketball and guess what? There is a basketball game tonight! Last night I took a big hit on the CWS, and game back with the S.F. Giants to get some of it back. Probably trying to do the same thing tonight....chase lost money.
I hate playing 4-10 baseball games because of the lines and the amount of money that can be lost if they all lose.
Thanks again for the time to give me some feed back. Still have not seen some posts from some cappers that I follow but I will keep my eye out for the one!
WOW!! Thank you!! great insight. I try to only play one game a day, and if I do not see anything I pass for the day. Its hard because I do not have the same control when it comes to baketball and guess what? There is a basketball game tonight! Last night I took a big hit on the CWS, and game back with the S.F. Giants to get some of it back. Probably trying to do the same thing tonight....chase lost money.
I hate playing 4-10 baseball games because of the lines and the amount of money that can be lost if they all lose.
Thanks again for the time to give me some feed back. Still have not seen some posts from some cappers that I follow but I will keep my eye out for the one!
Bigdog,
Thanks for your post I think I will stay away from this game. I have looked at several consensus sites and the world is on Philly. 91%,81%, and 72%. I usually remember looking at scores after high consensus and the opposite seems to happen. Any help on another game that would be worth a chunk of money.
Thanks for your post I think I will stay away from this game. I have looked at several consensus sites and the world is on Philly. 91%,81%, and 72%. I usually remember looking at scores after high consensus and the opposite seems to happen. Any help on another game that would be worth a chunk of money.
I guess it's Devil's Advocate time
Gotta go with the PHI consensus here. You've got TB at their weakest against LHP (.230) plus they've never faced Chen before which should be good for at least 5 or 6 innings, while Rekar is off a ND with a 9.00 ERA and if the bullpen gets involved it's set up much better tonight for Philly.
MOV
[This message has been edited by Man O' Vegas (edited 06-13-2001).]
Gotta go with the PHI consensus here. You've got TB at their weakest against LHP (.230) plus they've never faced Chen before which should be good for at least 5 or 6 innings, while Rekar is off a ND with a 9.00 ERA and if the bullpen gets involved it's set up much better tonight for Philly.
MOV
[This message has been edited by Man O' Vegas (edited 06-13-2001).]
Can someone tell me why this line has not moved from philly -150? I have watched it all day looking for a jump in the line based on the high consensus on philly??
I saw it open at -147 here this morning and now I see it's at -152 in some books. Maybe not a jump, more like a skip
TB is bad. They are even worse vs LHP, only 4-8 and scoring just 3.6 runs per game. They face Bruce Chen today. He is just 2-3 4.55 era....but 1-0 3.71 in his last 3 games. His only real problem so far this year is the Home Run Ball. TB sends Brian Rekar to the mound. He is 0-7 5.33 era...0-1 6.16 in his last 3. In his last game he gave up 5 runs on 9 hits with 0 walks and 2 Ks in 5 innings. Rekar throws strikes and doesn't walk very many that should help the free swinging Phillies. Phil is 30-20 vs RHP.
Phil is the better team. They have the better pitcher, the better hitters and the LHP/RHP match-up in "need a win" situation.
Phil is the better team. They have the better pitcher, the better hitters and the LHP/RHP match-up in "need a win" situation.
That is what this forum is all about, just glad that I am not sitting back and just reading posts but putting up threads and asking questions. For over 7 months I have been just watching and reading. About a month ago I probably would have played that game.
JT,
My weakness still continues in Baskets played the over of 188.5 and lost? Poor free throw shooting tonight was one reason, just wish I would not have played anything tonight but thats the way it goes. Tough to lose by 3 points when you look back at all the free throws that were missed.
Til Tomorrow....Good luck
JT,
My weakness still continues in Baskets played the over of 188.5 and lost? Poor free throw shooting tonight was one reason, just wish I would not have played anything tonight but thats the way it goes. Tough to lose by 3 points when you look back at all the free throws that were missed.
Til Tomorrow....Good luck
Tampa Bay 5
Philladelphia 3
Trend 1
Strategists 0
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If you're not the lead dog, your view never changes.
Philladelphia 3
Trend 1
Strategists 0
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If you're not the lead dog, your view never changes.
My initial thought was to play the Phillies today to avoid the sweep, BUT I agree with Big Dog stay away from a trend and that is the Devil Rays are winning right now. Game 3 has T.B up 3-0 in the first. Since I was going to play this game large I can breath without losing any more hair on playing catch-up. I stayed far, far, far, away from this game. Almost pulled the trigger on the under, but just decided to watch.
BigDog,
Did you edit the time of your post?? 5 - 3 ?? I'm watchin' the game and it is 5 - 3 TB. I think I hear the theme to "Twilight Zone" in the background!!!
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Double-up and beat the bank, stick & stay, & make it pay!
Did you edit the time of your post?? 5 - 3 ?? I'm watchin' the game and it is 5 - 3 TB. I think I hear the theme to "Twilight Zone" in the background!!!
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Double-up and beat the bank, stick & stay, & make it pay!
like i said earlier.. am sooo glad i stayed off the crappy phillies..b/c they have now lost 9 of 11. down the toilet they go!!
