Pick Threes

[Patternseeker]

Don't know if this is where my post should be, but I have a question.

Do you guys like the pick three? Over the long haul, is it a viable bet?

Any thoughts would be appreciated. I lived in Lexingon for three years and did my 2x yearly donation to them; have since moved to Ohio, where Beulah (yea, Beulah) is my closest track. Thanks in advance.

 

[astacio]

I bet to win only with an occasional exacta no daily double, pick three, ect...
Over the long haul it may be a winning bet but here are my reasons against it.

1. For me its hard enough to find 1 or 2 win bet races on a card to begin with. I think the chances of finding 3 in a row is hard and rare enough to negate any advantage in the payouts.

2. I think its such a low percentage winner that the standard deviation will probably get the best of you.

However I think it may be a good tool when used to hedge a bet. I have no stats to back this up.

I have also read posts at other forums saying that pick N's are good bets but have not heard of any opinions as to why or stats of proof either way.

If anyone has experiences with betting this way please share...

 

[Valuist]

Yes, I play it quite often. The best thing about it is that its one pari-mutuel takeout spread out over 3 races. If you bet each of those 3 races individually, you'd face a 20% (or slightly higher) takeout on each race. This is why Pic 3s almost always pay much better than a parlay (about 50% better). They were fantastic when they first started the bet in the early 90s. You'd get 3 7-2 shots and it would pay $450. Just get a couple of favorites out. They still seem to pay really well in Kentucky but i know in Chicago the payoffs seem to have fallen a bit over the years.

 

[spang]

I feel that the pick 3 is by far the best value of all the exotics. Most of my "signers" have come via the pick 3 by using viable contenders in two races with "all" in a third wide open race. I have also hit some nice ones with a single-all-all ticket.If you catch one bomb in the right place you can cash a huge ticket.

It takes a great deal of time to plot out winning pick3 strategy, but those who do it well are often greatly rewarded.

 

[spang]

Saw that you live near Beulah. God, what a dump. We would often go there Sundays in the past if we were spending a football weekend in Columbus.

At least the racing there is alot more "wide open" than it is at Thistledown. Thistle is home of the 6 horse field and the $4.20 mutual.

The racing scene in Ohio is just awful right now. Mountineer offers far better value, and will continue to do so until the political jackasses bring in the casinos to help out the tracks.

 

[Patternseeker]

Thanks for the replies astacio, Valuist and spang.

Yea, spang Beulah is a dump. I spent the last three years living in Lexington, going to Keeneland often, so it's about opposite ends of the spectrum.

bris net has a newsletter that I receive; they had a strategy on pick 3's like this: key, 3, 3
3, key, 3
3, 3, key

18 each tickets, 54 bucks a race. this hasn't worked too well for me, but I'm not what you'd call a master handicapper, either.

Thanks again, and GL.
Pattern

 

[Valuist]

I've found its better to go 5x5x1 or 6x4x1 than say a 3x3x3 (fairly similar amounts). It really helps to get 2 favorites out. If you do use a heavy chalk, try to use at least 5-1 shots or higher in your other legs. Pic 3s with 9-5, 1-1 and 5-2 are almost always underlays.

 

[walleyek]

I as well like Pick 3's. A good strategy is to find a decent price in the first leg. Many people who play this bet will key the favorite in the first leg. This greatly reduces the payout. It's far better to key the favorite in the second or third leg than the first. Also, Aces Gold is the only online race book I know who accepts Pick 3's (no 10-99's either!).

 

[Patternseeker]

walleyek,

thanks for the tip about keying the first race. i have noticed MUCH higher payouts when the key (usually favored or low odds) is the second or third race. interestingly, to me, this has made me examination the 'psyche' of my horse betting strategy, if that makes any sense. Keying the favorite in the first race chosen is doing what "most" people do at the track, and what "most" people do is follow patterns that separate them from their money.

Thanks again.

 

[Patternseeker]

walleyek,
forgot to ask. what's a 10-99?

i've never bet horses through an offshore sports book. i have been looking into youbet, but frankly am a little confused by them.

 

[walleyek]

A 10-99G is the form the IRS requires you to file when you win a wager 300:1 or greater at US tracks. AcesGold doesn't make you submit a 10-99G. YouBet is cool, but paying a monthly fee just to belong to it isn't appealing to me. Check out www.acesgoldcasino.com. They do a real nice job with horseracing.