Pinnaclesports.com posts odds on upcoming Canadian election

[IE]

Despite No Confidence Vote, Liberals Favored Over Conservatives


WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (November 30, 2005)-After Monday's vote of
no-confidence brought an end to the 17-month reign of the ruling Liberal government, Canadian voters will head to the polls in January to decide the future governance of the nation. With the sitting government falling for the first time since 1979 and possibly ending Paul Martin's hold on Canadian politics, PinnacleSports.com today announced odds on the outcome of the upcoming election for control of the Canadian Parliament.

Despite being the first government to fall on a straight motion of
no-confidence, PinnacleSports.com lists the Liberals as favorites to win the most seats in the upcoming election at 2/5 odds. The Liberals have also been made a 12.5 seat favorite over Stephen Harper's Conservatives for the total seats won in January's vote. PinnacleSports.com has also created unique over/under betting lines on the total number of seats won by each of the four major political parties. Although they held 133 seats in Parliament after the last election, PinnacleSports.com believes that recent government corruption and scandals will not go unpunished by the electorate and lists the over/under on seats won by the Liberals at only 120.5. The loss of Liberal MP's means potential gains for the other political parties and the bookmaker predicts that the Conservatives (over/under 107.5), Bloc Quebecois (over/under 60.5) and NDP (over/under 29.5) will all gain seats in the House of Commons.

"After losing the parliamentary majority in June 2004, the public's
confidence in Paul Martin and the Liberal party has continued to wane
and the no-confidence vote in Parliament seems to reflect widespread
public sentiment," said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. "Despite all of the recent controversy, the polls indicate that the Liberals will gain the most seats in this historic election, but with little chance of gaining an overall majority."

In addition to offering betting on the Parliamentary seats won by the
parties, PinnacleSports.com has also posted odds on some of the key
ridings in the upcoming election. The oddsmakers currently list Liberal Carolyn Bennett as a 10,000 vote favorite to win re-election in the riding of St. Paul's in Toronto over Conservative challenger Peter Kent. In what is certain to be one of the most closely watched votes, NDP party leader Jack Layton is favored by a mere 3,000 votes over Liberal Deborah Coyne in the Toronto-Danforth riding.

PinnacleSports.com will accept wagers on the Canadian Election until the vote on January 23, 2006. For more information and a complete list of odds, please visit PinnacleSports.com .

Current Odds: *All Odds Subject To Change*

Which Party Will Win More Seats?

Liberals 2/5
Conservatives 12/5

Total Seats Won, Including All Recounts

Liberals -12.5 seats
Conservatives +12.5 seats


Total Seats Won By Liberals

Over 120.5 seats 11/10
Under 120.5 seats 5/6


Total Seats Won By Conservatives

Over 107.5 seats 5/6
Under 107.5 seats 11/10


Total Seats Won By Bloc Quebecois

Over 60.5 seats 1/1
Under 60.5 seats 10/11


Total Seats Won By NDP

Over 29.5 seats 10/11
Under 29.5 seats 1/1


St. Paul, Toronto Riding

Carolyn Bennett -10,000 votes
Peter Kent +10,000 votes


Toronto-Danforth Riding

Jack Layton -3,000 votes
Deborah Coyne +3,000 votes



About PinnacleSports.com

PinnacleSports.com is the Internet's largest
sports betting site serving customers in more than 80 countries
worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional
bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum
limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading
reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional
customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and
regulated in Curacao and the United Kingdom, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.

 

[GM]

Interesting. If anyone can find a bet on "Will we see a minority government?" I would LOVE to bet the Yes on that at any reasonable price. (For those who don't know what a "minority government" is, this just means no one party gets over half of the 308 seats, and thus two or more parties whose seat count combined exceeds 154 must declare an alliance to form a government). I think there is VERY little chance any party gets 154+ seats by themselves.

Standings when the government was dissolved:

Liberal: 133
Conservative: 98
Bloc Quebecois: 53
NDP: 18
Independent: 4
Vacant: 2

In the government that was just dissolved, the Liberals and NDP, along with 3 of the 4 independent candidates, voted together most of the time.

Most of those bets on the number of seats each party will get look pretty accurate, but I think the Under on the NDP may be worth a look. The Bloc and the Conservatives should definitely gain a few seats and those numbers (60? and 107?) both look very close to being correct. The Liberals will likely lose a few seats. But there is a portion of NDP support which could be considered soft. The NDP is their party of choice, but if they feel there's a chance the Conservatives could possibly win the election outright, they will switch their votes to Liberal at the last moment to try to prevent this (better to have a middle-left party in power than a right-wing party, in their estimation). I've seen this phenomenon before. The NDP's numbers suffer when elections are expected to be tight in my opinion. Definitely worth a look as the campaign goes on, if neither of the two main parties screws up too badly and it's still expected to be tight.

As for the Bloc...well they're just separatists and the same people are going to vote for them time and time again. A lot of people are angry at the Liberals and this can only help the Bloc in Quebec (in most regions of Quebec these are the only two parties who will be considered). A low of 55 seats and a high of 62 is a virtual certainty election after election.