PITT/BUFF TOTAL

[Nolan Dalla]

I have seen a few other posts here from handicappers I respect who are on the PITT/BUFF game to go OVER the 5.5 total.

This concerns me as, at first glance, I like the game UNDER.

Obviously, anytime you make an UNDER wager on a PENS game you are in jeopardy, because they are an explosive team with a great line. But here I see the PENS who have been playing more defensive-oriented hockey facing a better goaltender (CAPS were good, but were not in Hasek's league). Furthermore, Hacek did not have a good series, and I don't see him giving up 3 or more goals very often as he did versus WASH. BUFFALO scored plenty of goals against PHILA's rookie goaltender, and it seemed the FLYERS just gave up, especially in the final game. Assuming Hasek has a decent game (which means allowing 1-2 goals) that requires BUFF to score 4 to break the total. Can the SABS do that?

I love getting 5.5 in NHL games because the hook is huge. A 2-2 game that goes into overtime is a winner (since max of 5 goals are scored).

I'm sure there may be reasons to lay off the total, but I'm just curious as to why some of you like the OVER in tonight's game. I haven't sent my action in yet, so I would like to get a different point of view.

Thanks.

Nolan Dalla

 

[CrazyHorse]

Nolan,

I do like the over in the Pittsburgh game. But my line is an even 5, not 5.5. It is also at -105 to take the over which makes it more attractive. I am sure there are other cappers who can go into #'s as to why they like the over better than I can. Here is my reasoning:

1st off I believe the Sabres will score more than Washington. As well as Pittsburgh played defensively in round one I really feel a part of that was Washington's anemic offense. I am not trying to downplay what Pit did but I feel Buffalo will really test Hedberg much more than Washington did. I also believe this is not the Hasek of old and while he is still great, I think he is no longer unstoppable.

I will say I disagree with your statement that the CAPS are not in Hasek's league. I would say right now if I had to pick a goalie between the 2 I would take Kolzig. Ask me that 3 years ago, the answer would be Hasek. Now if you are talking defense overall I still think these teams are about even.

Also understand getting and even 5 now my thinking is as long as both teams can score 2 I will at least get a push. But please understand I have only been betting NHL for about 1.5 years and am still learning. But when you consider the trades Buffalo made for offense I feel they will score more than Washington did and I really believe Pittsburgh will get as many goals per game vs. Hasek then they did against against Kolzig. I hope some other great cappers on this board will add their thoughts as this was potentially a big play for me and I have to admit when I see you taking the under it has me worried. This is just a testament to your capping skills as I, as well as many others, followed you all year in the NFL. Good luck to you whatever you decide. Hope this info helped in any way.

 

[thepoolguy]

I actually found Buf/Pitt over 5 +100.

A lot of NHL teams play to keep the game close, because as long as it is close they have a chance to win at the end. Nobody has played more regular season games under the total over the last couple of years as Buffalo. When I handicap the playoffs I break it down as, first round, second and third round together, and the finals. Over the last 4 years Buffalo in the second and third rounds has played 13 games over 5, 7 games under 5, and 6 games with 5 goals(some of these with 4.5 or 4 as a total). Buffalo seems to open the game up, knowing Hasek will save most of their mistakes. If they score first against Pitt, they should know that one goal won't stand up and continue to press. On the other hand Pittsburg seemed content to keep it close, and shut down Washington. This won't work against Buff. If Pitt scores first, Buffalo will really open the game up which is Pitt. strength.

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Gentlemen:

Thank you for the details justifying the UNDER play. I was fortunate to get the 5.5 at Palace Station around noon, but if the number is 5, I can see reason to take the OVER since a 2-2 gave gives you (at worst) a push. Also, good point about Kolzig being a better GT than Hasek at this stage, combined with the trades that helped BUFF scoring threat. Really good analysis, which is what this board is all about. I actually considered getting money to an offfshore going for a "middle" if it lands on 5, but I'm going to stick with the UNDER 5.5 laying the vig.

Best wishes,

Nolan Dalla

 

[wannabe whale]

Good Call Nolan--I was at the game and Hedberg was very sharp. Expect a high scoring game in Game 2 on Saturday.

 

[Ice Picks]

2 cents:

Pittsburgh's coach changed their defensive scheme with about 3 weeks left in the season to allegedly cut down on the number of breakaways against their goalie. This was also supposed to lower the goals scored by Pitt.

Whether this happened is dubious, as Pitt scored 34 goals their last 10 games going 5-4-1 [3.4 GPG] but allowed 32 [3.2 GAA].

In the 7 game series against the Caps, they scored 17 goals [1.7 GPG] and allowed only 10. [1.42 GAA][4-3]. They were 3-1 against Buffalo in regular season - for some reason the Sabres have difficulty with the Pens.

I believe that Buffalo is a better defensive team overall than Washington. And I think the new goalie in Pittsburgh has improved that aspect of Pitts defense, as shown against the Caps.

Buffalo scored 26 goals their last 10 [2.60 GAA][6-4], allowing 17 [1.7 GPG] and scored 21 in their 6 game series against Philly [3.5 GPG] allowing 13 2.16 GAA.

Philly scored 3 goals against the Sabres 4 times, going 2-2 in those games. I think the Pens may have more offense than the Flyers, and the Sabres will have to give a better effort than they did tonight to be able to advance.

Obviously the 8 Buffalo goals scored against the Flyers in the last game was an aberation, sort of like the Giants blow-out of Minnesota in the NFL play-offs.

The Under 5.5 was the right call Thursday night, as Buffalo failed to scratch. With 2 good goalies, you can always look for a shut-out or 1 goal game. You can look for Buffalo to tighten up in front of Hasek, and another low scoring game, in my humble opinion, next Saturday.

[This message has been edited by Ice Picks (edited 04-27-2001).]