I am only handicapping two teams this football year. Rest of the time I follow a few select cappers here and around the net.
I live half way between Buffalo and Syracuse so i get alot of info on both the bills and Orangemen. Old man was a former running back at SU and grew up watching the orange from the Schwartzhalter days at Archibold Stadium to the present. Spent many an Sunday afternoon at the old War Memorial stadium in Buffalo watching from Jack Kemp and Cookie Gilchrist to Marv Levy's Super Bowl teams.
Record this year:
Bills 2-0
SU 2-0
Here is my take on the Bills this week:
Grab the 3 points as the Bills get their first win!
Reasons why Bills win:
1) Off what performance does Pittsburgh deserve to be a 3 point favorite? Week one where they got pushed all over the field in Jacksonville? The preseason game where the Bills mailed it in and lost 20-0? (Bills went vanilla that game and showed nothing) Or do the oddmakers have a new found respect for "Mr August" Kordell Stewart? Football bettor have the worst memories. Everyone is remembering the pounding the Bills took in indy on Sunday but who remembers the way Pitt got pushed around in week 1?
2)Pitt will have been off for 21 days by kickoff. Their timing, which was far from percision like in jacksonville, can be expected to be off abit in the first half. If the Bills can get an early lead they could be gold because Pitt is not a catch up team by any stretch of the imagination. They want to pound bettis and take the heat off kordell. if Pitt does play catch up will they be able to exploit the Bills secondary?
3. I don't think so. The Bills secondary is better then they showed Sunday, believe me. The Bills ran into a juggernant in indy and were picked apart by the best QB in the game and the best at preparation ( don't forget that manning had two weeks to get ready for the Bills). Indy also has the best overall group of receivers around and an all-world running back. I can forgive them for that performance because i think manning will do that to alot of secondaries this season. I have never confused Stewart for Manning, Will Blackwell for Harrison, or whatever WR won the job lottery in Pitt this year. Point is that Indy had the tools to exploit the Bills secondary. Pitt does not.
4. Bills players know that this is a rebuilding year ( even if the coaching staff rfuses to admit it) and know that wins are going to be hard to come by. They know this one is winnable. It is at home. They want to stop all the critisism that they are getting on talk radio, the newspaper, etc even if it is only for one week.
5. Moulds is questionable and to be honest, maybe the best thing for the Bills is if he sits one out. Make Price step up his play. Get Riemersa the ball. Lets see what McDaniel can do.
6. Johnson is not going to win games this year, especially playing catch up, he can only lose games for them. I can't see Pitt getting out in front more then a TD here so the Bills will be able to do what they want to do...get the ball to Travis Henry 20+ times. He has shown flashes of great potential in his limited touches in first two weeks. TD run from the 4 yard line against indy was a glimpse at his ability to break tackles. He is the guy who can win games for the Bills this year, not Johnson, and he can't do it when they are behind 14+ points.
6. Bills were not just beat sunday, they were humilated. That was the reason for the unsportsman like conduct penalities they got in second half. I think they felt that Colts ran it up on them. Bills need an opponent that they can beat up on, phyically. Pittsburgh wil play that role. Pitt is not a team filled with skill players like Indy. They have to play smashmouth to win, same as Buffalo. Bills should be more motivated here to win the war in the trenches. Bills OL sucks at pass protection but they do have some good run blockers and are looking for a chance to pound it out instead of having to pass protect the whole second half like the first two games.
7. Head coach Williams came from the Titans where he was defensive coordinator. Very familiar with Steelers and Stewart. By the way, have the Steelers changed their game plan in the last 20 years? Williams knows the key is to stop Bettis. Make Kordell think he has to win the game.
8. Pitt is only a few hour drive from Buffalo and I would expect alot of Steeler fans in the house. That just tends to rile up the Bills followers even more. Next to the Jets game, this will be the biggest fight day of the year. Even though the Bills are down, their fans will still fill it up with 80,000 people. i think that the Bills will feed off of the crowd, especially since they know they have to win this game or they could go to San Diego in October winless to face the Lord and savior, Doug Flutie.
Reasons why they could lose:
1. I am beginning to believe that Johnson in Buffalo is similiar to the George situation in Washington. Johnson has a great arm but the game plan is for short passes, three step drops, get rid of it. I think he would be better off in a seven step drop and throwing downfield. I get the feeling that he does not think fast enough to be sucessful in this scheme. He has noticebly gotten worse over past two seasons instead of improving. If Bills get down and Johnson has to rally them....forget it.
2. Bills defense is shell shocked. LB Wright and Spoon are inexperienced and were schooled last Sunday. DL got no pass rush all day. CB's got suckered on play action and got burned for long TD's. LB got no pressure on Manning and Newman was caught out of position on a few plays. If Bettis is sucessful on first down and Stewart has time, Pitt could move the ball against the Bills. Bills will send eight men up front to stop bettis and take their chances with Stewart throwing.
3. Ariens missed a 37 yarder vs. Indy but made two from 45+. Winds at RWS can be tricky. A missed FG in a close game could be diaster.
4. Williams was obviously outcoached. Colts were much better prepared for the game. Steelers have 21 days to get ready for the Bills. Cowher is good but does he have the talent to pull it off?
I think this is a must win for the Bills. After this it is the Jets at home and Jacksonville on the road. As I mentioned, they do not want to go to San Diego winless. Johnson might just decide to stay in California after that one. Bills did not match up physically to New Orleans and did not match up skill wise to Indy. Here they get an opponent that they do match up well with, at home, looking to avenge a humilating defeat.
A close one but I go with:
Bills 17 - Pittsburgh 13
Grab the 3 points
I live half way between Buffalo and Syracuse so i get alot of info on both the bills and Orangemen. Old man was a former running back at SU and grew up watching the orange from the Schwartzhalter days at Archibold Stadium to the present. Spent many an Sunday afternoon at the old War Memorial stadium in Buffalo watching from Jack Kemp and Cookie Gilchrist to Marv Levy's Super Bowl teams.
Record this year:
Bills 2-0
SU 2-0
Here is my take on the Bills this week:
Grab the 3 points as the Bills get their first win!
Reasons why Bills win:
1) Off what performance does Pittsburgh deserve to be a 3 point favorite? Week one where they got pushed all over the field in Jacksonville? The preseason game where the Bills mailed it in and lost 20-0? (Bills went vanilla that game and showed nothing) Or do the oddmakers have a new found respect for "Mr August" Kordell Stewart? Football bettor have the worst memories. Everyone is remembering the pounding the Bills took in indy on Sunday but who remembers the way Pitt got pushed around in week 1?
2)Pitt will have been off for 21 days by kickoff. Their timing, which was far from percision like in jacksonville, can be expected to be off abit in the first half. If the Bills can get an early lead they could be gold because Pitt is not a catch up team by any stretch of the imagination. They want to pound bettis and take the heat off kordell. if Pitt does play catch up will they be able to exploit the Bills secondary?
3. I don't think so. The Bills secondary is better then they showed Sunday, believe me. The Bills ran into a juggernant in indy and were picked apart by the best QB in the game and the best at preparation ( don't forget that manning had two weeks to get ready for the Bills). Indy also has the best overall group of receivers around and an all-world running back. I can forgive them for that performance because i think manning will do that to alot of secondaries this season. I have never confused Stewart for Manning, Will Blackwell for Harrison, or whatever WR won the job lottery in Pitt this year. Point is that Indy had the tools to exploit the Bills secondary. Pitt does not.
4. Bills players know that this is a rebuilding year ( even if the coaching staff rfuses to admit it) and know that wins are going to be hard to come by. They know this one is winnable. It is at home. They want to stop all the critisism that they are getting on talk radio, the newspaper, etc even if it is only for one week.
5. Moulds is questionable and to be honest, maybe the best thing for the Bills is if he sits one out. Make Price step up his play. Get Riemersa the ball. Lets see what McDaniel can do.
6. Johnson is not going to win games this year, especially playing catch up, he can only lose games for them. I can't see Pitt getting out in front more then a TD here so the Bills will be able to do what they want to do...get the ball to Travis Henry 20+ times. He has shown flashes of great potential in his limited touches in first two weeks. TD run from the 4 yard line against indy was a glimpse at his ability to break tackles. He is the guy who can win games for the Bills this year, not Johnson, and he can't do it when they are behind 14+ points.
6. Bills were not just beat sunday, they were humilated. That was the reason for the unsportsman like conduct penalities they got in second half. I think they felt that Colts ran it up on them. Bills need an opponent that they can beat up on, phyically. Pittsburgh wil play that role. Pitt is not a team filled with skill players like Indy. They have to play smashmouth to win, same as Buffalo. Bills should be more motivated here to win the war in the trenches. Bills OL sucks at pass protection but they do have some good run blockers and are looking for a chance to pound it out instead of having to pass protect the whole second half like the first two games.
7. Head coach Williams came from the Titans where he was defensive coordinator. Very familiar with Steelers and Stewart. By the way, have the Steelers changed their game plan in the last 20 years? Williams knows the key is to stop Bettis. Make Kordell think he has to win the game.
8. Pitt is only a few hour drive from Buffalo and I would expect alot of Steeler fans in the house. That just tends to rile up the Bills followers even more. Next to the Jets game, this will be the biggest fight day of the year. Even though the Bills are down, their fans will still fill it up with 80,000 people. i think that the Bills will feed off of the crowd, especially since they know they have to win this game or they could go to San Diego in October winless to face the Lord and savior, Doug Flutie.
Reasons why they could lose:
1. I am beginning to believe that Johnson in Buffalo is similiar to the George situation in Washington. Johnson has a great arm but the game plan is for short passes, three step drops, get rid of it. I think he would be better off in a seven step drop and throwing downfield. I get the feeling that he does not think fast enough to be sucessful in this scheme. He has noticebly gotten worse over past two seasons instead of improving. If Bills get down and Johnson has to rally them....forget it.
2. Bills defense is shell shocked. LB Wright and Spoon are inexperienced and were schooled last Sunday. DL got no pass rush all day. CB's got suckered on play action and got burned for long TD's. LB got no pressure on Manning and Newman was caught out of position on a few plays. If Bettis is sucessful on first down and Stewart has time, Pitt could move the ball against the Bills. Bills will send eight men up front to stop bettis and take their chances with Stewart throwing.
3. Ariens missed a 37 yarder vs. Indy but made two from 45+. Winds at RWS can be tricky. A missed FG in a close game could be diaster.
4. Williams was obviously outcoached. Colts were much better prepared for the game. Steelers have 21 days to get ready for the Bills. Cowher is good but does he have the talent to pull it off?
I think this is a must win for the Bills. After this it is the Jets at home and Jacksonville on the road. As I mentioned, they do not want to go to San Diego winless. Johnson might just decide to stay in California after that one. Bills did not match up physically to New Orleans and did not match up skill wise to Indy. Here they get an opponent that they do match up well with, at home, looking to avenge a humilating defeat.
A close one but I go with:
Bills 17 - Pittsburgh 13
Grab the 3 points
