Playoffs Round One

[Happy Hippo]

Regular season posts:

ATS: 160-115 (+51.3) 58.2%
OU: 77-64 (+5.3) 54.6%
ML Dog: 5-12 (-0.4)

TOTAL: +56.2 UNITS, ROI: 11.8%
____________________________________________


Very excited for this time of year. I will post my analysis of each series match up, along with relevant trends in this thread. Hopefully I can provide some useful information.

Cheers, and good luck!


Home Court Advantage

Home court advantage is important in the regular season. In the last ten NBA seasons, home teams have won at a rate of 60.1%. Home court is especially important in the playoffs, as the rate of home wins rises to 66.5% over the last ten seasons. The advantages of playing at home include:

Familiarity with court and routines
Fan support
Referee favoritism
Better rest in comfortable surrounding

Playoff teams that boast the best home courts this season:

1: Nuggets (won 92.7%, 28-13 ATS)
2: Heat (won 90.2%, 22-19 ATS)
3: Spurs (won 85.4%, 18-21-2 ATS)
4: Thunder (won 82.9%, 27-14 ATS)
5: Clippers (won 78%, 25-15-1 ATS)
6: Grizzlies (won 78%, 22-18-1 ATS)
7: Knicks (won 75%, 24-16 ATS)
8: Pacers (won 73.2%, 20-18-3 ATS)



ROUND ONE SERIES, LAST TEN SEASONS

1 seeds won the first round: 90%
2 seeds won the first round: 95%
3 seeds won the first round: 75%
4 seeds won the first round: 65%

Only 5 eight seeds have ever advanced past round one in the NBA playoffs.

In the last ten seasons in round one, individual games:

Home team SU 67.6%
Home team ATS 53%
Favorites SU 73.7%
Favorites ATS 54.1%
Unders 52.3%

Round 1, individual games:

1 seeds 71.8% SU, 51.5% ATS
2 seeds 74.3% SU, 60% ATS
3 seeds 61.6% SU, 51.8% ATS
4 seeds 55.1% SU, 50.9% ATS
5 seeds 44.8% SU, 49.1% ATS
6 seeds 38.4% SU, 48.2% ATS
7 seeds 25.7% SU, 40.0% ATS
8 seeds 28.2% SU, 48.5% ATS

Round 1, ATS at home:

1 seeds 61.8%
2 seeds 58.6%
3 seeds 52.5%
4 seeds 51.6%
5 seeds 50%
6 seeds 49%
7 seeds 38.3%
8 seeds 60.4%

Round 1, Game 1

1 seeds won 80%, 70% ATS, 70% O/U
2 seeds won 80%, 40% ATS, 47.4% O/U
3 seeds won 55%, 50% ATS, 45% O/U
4 seeds won 60%, 52.6% ATS, 55% O/U

 

[Happy Hippo]

Futures pending:

Pacers +1450 to win the East (2 units)

Pacers vs. Thunder in finals +2675 (1 unit)

Nuggets +2000 to win the West (2 units)


The first two are probably dead weight, but I like the odds I got with the third one, as I think their chances are better than 20-1.

 

[canuckfan77]

Good luck Jess, it is good to have you back. :0008

I look forward to perusing your thoughts and insights :toast:

 

[Happy Hippo]

ROUND 1 MATCHUPS WEST



Thunder-Rockets

The old adage ?defense wins championships? is just that... old. First of all, it is not even true (as proven by Dean Oliver), and second, the Bestern conference is redefining successful style of play for the whole NBA, which is partially based on the current analytics rage (where the Rockets are at the forefront). Some of the fastest paced teams are in the western conference playoffs this season. 6 of the 8 playoff teams in the west are in the top ten in pace. This series should be a fast paced matchup between two very young and very efficient offensive teams (Thunder rank #1 in the league and the Rockets #6).

Durant is unbelievable. He joined an exclusive group of elite players this year by averaging 50% from the field, 40% from beyond the arc, and 90% from the free throw line. Being 6'9" with a wingspan of 7'5" and these shooting attributes makes him nearly impossible to guard, and the Rockets surely don?t have any answer for him. He has great mental toughness as well (and it helps keep his hot-headed partner Westbrook in line). In the three games this year against the Rockets, the Thunder have posted an offensive efficiency rating of 113.2, which is above their league best average. The Rockets just can't stop them.

There is not much to say about this match up, as both teams play similar styles, but one team just plays it a whole lot better. The Rockets are not a good road team, and playing against the team that boasted the biggest margin of victory at home (+13 ppg) this season does not help their chances of winning one on the road. If they shoot lights out from distance, they might be able to steal a game at home. Of course the storyline will be Harden vs. his old team. The small advantage that the Rockets have is that they are playing with house money - all the expectations and pressure are on the Thunder.

Brooks: ?Our guys have very high basketball IQ because of the time they've put in on the practice floor and the playoff experience they've had the past three years.?

The Thunder are 2-1 SU and ATS against the Rockets this season, and all three games went over the total (average 225.7 points).


My prediction: Thunder in 5.

Current Series Price:

Rockets +1150
Thunder -1800

No play on this series.

 

[Bear Tracks]

Welcome back Happy Hippo - great info as always! :0074 I look forward to hearing your thoughts on Bulls/Nets. I think both Bulls & Grizzlies have value to win their series. GL! :toast:

 

[Happy Hippo]

Spurs-Lakers

aka...THE OLD PEOPLE WITH LOTS OF INJURIES SERIES

This is the best first round match up the Lakers could have hoped for down the stretch...if Kobe was still in uniform. With him, they would have a fighting chance, but without him, they have none. The Spurs are the fifth best team in the league at converting the pick and roll into points, and they rely on that play more than any other in their arsenal to score. This has been the achilles? heel (oh I had to go there...) of the Laker?s defense all season, as they are in the bottom ten in the league at defending this play. The Spurs have too many weapons for the Lakers to try to contain. The Spurs rank third offensively and fourth defensively in the league. Without Kobe to step up in the needed moments, I think the Lakers are going to find themselves in deep well of frustration.

The Lakers only respite is the recent injuries and perceived turmoil that the Spurs have undergone. Parker has clearly suffered from his ankle injury and has not regained his form since - his early MVP-like performances diminished in the month of April, when he averaged 13.6 points, 6 assists, and 39% from the field. I think he will regain his form facing the porous defense of the Lakers. Ginobili is just returning from a hamstring injury that has also taken its toll on his performance. Duncan is the rock for this team, and he is having one of his best seasons in years. But the Spurs have great depth, and the system they play within utilizes the strengths of many different players.

The Lakers have stepped up nicely in the last two games without Kobe on the floor, with Gasol ending the season with a triple-double and Howard dominating inside. But with a possibly hobbled Nash, who is also a shell of his former self, and no Kobe, their guard play is going to struggle. When the Lakers are down by 10, Kobe took over 40% of their shots this season. Who is going to do that now (well, maybe that?s a good thing...)? If their big men get into foul trouble, it could be a long night for the rest of the team. And don?t forget who is there to stop Howard and Gasol inside - Duncan and Splitter are the best two-man combination in the league this season in defending the paint, limiting opponents to just 43.7% inside. In fact, there are only five players in the league who have a better defensive rating than Splitter.

The Lakers are the worst free throw shooting team in the league, while the Spurs are third best, and in games where every point is important, that could make a difference. But the final part of the equation is... Pop. He?s just one of the best. The Spurs have been in the playoffs for a record 15 straight years, and his team has won 60.5% of their playoff games.

In the end, it is going to be too much pick and roll, too much Parker, too much Duncan, too much Pop, and too much frustration for the Lakers. X-factor in this series - McGrady. OK, not really, but should make for some interesting moments.

My prediction: Spurs in 5

Lakers +600
Spurs -900

No play on this series.

 

[Happy Hippo]

Thanks Canuck and Bear Tracks - I have finished the west and should have them all up tonight, but still working on the East.

Cheers, and best of luck

 

[Happy Hippo]

Nuggets-Warriors

I have to be honest. I was ready to unload on the Nuggets, until I saw the series line. Well damn, I was thinking it would be a lot smaller considering Gallinari is out and Faried hurting. But for the Nuggets, one player doesn?t matter all that much. Yes, the Nuggets net rating differential on paper suffers without him, but it is hard to equate this all to Gallinari, since he plays with the rest of the starters. Fournier has stepped up very nicely in his absence, and the Nuggets actually have a better net rating when Brewer, Chandler, and Iguodala are on the floor without Gallinari. The Nuggets style is to wear down opponents with their relentless attack inside. For this style, able bodies matter a lot more than one star, and they have by far the deepest roster in the league. With focus on the fast pace and transition game, the incredible defense of the Nuggets, led by one of the best defenders in the league in Iguodala, is often overlooked. Since March, the Nuggets are the most efficient defensive team in the league.

What matters a lot in this series is home court. The Nuggets are a league best 38-3 at home this season, with an average margin of 10.7 ppg, and winners of 23 straight. They are also 28-13 ATS at home (also a league best). During their 23 game home winning streak, their average margin of victory is 12.4 points, and their domination of opponents both offensively and defensively has been impressive.

The Warriors have struggled defensively all season, and they have given up 102.9 ppg on the road. When they allowed opponents over 100 points on the road, they were just 6-17 SU (-8.7 ppg). When the Nuggets score more than 100 at home, they are 31-1 SU (+12.4 ppg) this season. Inside, David Lee is not a good defender, as he tends to lapse on limiting offensive rebounds and defending the paint, which are points of strength for the pesky Nuggets. Although the Warriors have a lot of good shooters, they do not have a lot of good play makers, and for this reason they struggle in half-court sets. If Thompson or Curry are not on fire, there is little threat elsewhere on the floor, so teams do not need to double team on the outside. Jack is really the only other player that creates offense. The Warriors style can lead to short term success, but it is not a sustainable style of play, which is completely opposite of the Nuggets, who rely on high quality shots in the paint.

The Nuggets are not a public favorite in the playoffs. They are the team that is easy to disregard - they have no superstar, they fail to match up with typical NBA championship teams, their style of play is not adaptable for the playoffs. And it is somewhat true - according to 82games.com, 92% of NBA champions in the years 1956-2005 had a recent NBA first-team selection. However, Zach Lowe did a great piece on grantland, and he shows how the Nuggets are able to do three things that are important to playoff contenders: Score in the clutch, efficient half court offense, and play elite defense. In fact, surprisingly the Nuggets rank as the fifth best offensive team in the clutch, a stat that is usually reserved for teams with a bonafide superstar.

Setting aside statistics, it can be defeating to play the Nuggets. Their style is relentless. They are second only to Miami in converting turnovers into points, and possibly the best at turning defensive rebounds into transition points. It is mentally fatiguing to play against a team that never stops going.

Finally, the coaching advantage. Although he has not been super successful in the playoffs, Karl has 21 years of consecutive winning records. He has continually compared this team to the team he had in Seattle that he took to the finals.

The Nuggets are the only team in the West that have won the season series over every other Western conference playoff team. The Nuggets believe they can beat anyone, and sometimes, belief can be a powerful tool.

My prediction: Nuggets in 5

Warriors +380
Nuggets -475

No play on this series.

 

[Happy Hippo]

Clippers-Grizzlies

This should be the best series of the western conference first round match ups. The Grizzlies have historically struggled in the playoffs, and they were beat by the Clippers last year in game 7 in the first round. I wish the Grizzlies would make it all the way through the western conference, because I think they pose the toughest match up against the Heat this season, but I don?t think they will. I do think they will make it out of the first round.

The Clippers have posted some great numbers statistically in the regular season, but they have also had games where they are offensively stagnant. They seem to completely forget how to play at times, and rely purely on the fact that they have one of the best point guards in the league on the floor, and a couple other good players who can dunk really good. Del Negro is not a good coach. If the Clippers didn?t have Chris Paul, they would be dead in the water. He makes everything tick, but the Grizzlies have some of the best defenders to stop their flow. There will not be ?lob city? going in this series, as the Grizzlies are the fourth best team at guarding transition baskets, and the third best at guarding the paint. The highlight reel for the Clippers' bigs will consist of free throw shooting for Jordan and Griffin, and this is not their strong suit. Defensively, the Clippers struggle to guard the three point line and they double unnecessarily all over the floor, so that good passing teams can pick them apart. Their defensive strategies seem to change from game to game, and play to play, which was a point of contention between Griffin and coach a few weeks ago.

With all the focus on Chris Paul, it is easy to forget that Mike Conley is one of the most cerebrally gifted point guards in the league. Wins produced is not the greatest metric in my opinion for measuring performance, but it is highly regarded by many, and Conley is the third best point guard in the league in this statistical measure, and the best on his team. Conley is smart, and he knows how to run this team. Although the Grizzlies do not appear to be an offensive juggernaut, their offensive efficiency improved drastically after trading away a super inefficient Rudy Gay. Their rating jumped from 28th in December, 23rd in January, to 8th in March.

Consistency is important in winning playoff series and championships. This is measured by the game to game offensive and defensive differential. The Clippers are the fourth most inconsistent team in the league this season, while Memphis is the ninth most consistent. I think this reflects the inconsistent offensive and defensive sets they are given by their coach. Del Negro's playoff win percentage is 34.8, and despite his team's success this season, his name seems to be constantly on the chopping block.

The Clippers have won the season series 3-1, but two of those losses came before the Gay trade. The Clippers have a great home court, but the Grizzlies are the third best team in the league on the road this season. The playoffs are all about winning road games, because it can completely swing momentum. The X-factor this playoff series - Randolph is healthy. Last year he was coming back from an MCL tear, but this year he is 100%, and he will be the damage that the Clippers cannot contain. The Grizzlies will not squander a 27 point third quarter lead this season.

The Grizzlies will dictate the pace in this series and they excel when they control the style of play.

My prediction: Grizzlies in 7

Grizzlies +145
Clippers -165

Series play: 2 units Grizzlies +145

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

Clippers-Grizzlies

This should be the best series of the western conference first round match ups. The Grizzlies have historically struggled in the playoffs, and they were beat by the Clippers last year in game 7 in the first round. I wish the Grizzlies would make it all the way through the western conference, because I think they pose the toughest match up against the Heat this season, but I don?t think they will. I do think they will make it out of the first round.

The Clippers have posted some great numbers statistically in the regular season, but they have also had games where they are offensively stagnant. They seem to completely forget how to play at times, and rely purely on the fact that they have one of the best point guards in the league on the floor, and a couple other good players who can dunk really good. Del Negro is not a good coach. If the Clippers didn?t have Chris Paul, they would be dead in the water. He makes everything tick, but the Grizzlies have some of the best defenders to stop their flow. There will not be ?lob city? going in this series, as the Grizzlies are the fourth best team at guarding transition baskets, and the third best at guarding the paint. The highlight reel for the Clippers' bigs will consist of free throw shooting for Jordan and Griffin, and this is not their strong suit. Defensively, the Clippers struggle to guard the three point line and they double unnecessarily all over the floor, so that good passing teams can pick them apart. Their defensive strategies seem to change from game to game, and play to play, which was a point of contention between Griffin and coach a few weeks ago.

With all the focus on Chris Paul, it is easy to forget that Mike Conley is one of the most cerebrally gifted point guards in the league. Wins produced is not the greatest metric in my opinion for measuring performance, but it is highly regarded by many, and Conley is the third best point guard in the league in this statistical measure, and the best on his team. Conley is smart, and he knows how to run this team. Although the Grizzlies do not appear to be an offensive juggernaut, their offensive efficiency improved drastically after trading away a super inefficient Rudy Gay. Their rating jumped from 28th in December, 23rd in January, to 8th in March.

Consistency is important in winning playoff series and championships. This is measured by the game to game offensive and defensive differential. The Clippers are the fourth most inconsistent team in the league this season, while Memphis is the ninth most consistent. I think this reflects the inconsistent offensive and defensive sets they are given by their coach. Del Negro's playoff win percentage is 34.8, and despite his team's success this season, his name seems to be constantly on the chopping block.

The Clippers have won the season series 3-1, but two of those losses came before the Gay trade. The Clippers have a great home court, but the Grizzlies are the third best team in the league on the road this season. The playoffs are all about winning road games, because it can completely swing momentum. The X-factor this playoff series - Randolph is healthy. Last year he was coming back from an MCL tear, but this year he is 100%, and he will be the damage that the Clippers cannot contain. The Grizzlies will not squander a 27 point third quarter lead this season.

The Grizzlies will dictate the pace in this series and they excel when they control the style of play.

My prediction: Grizzlies in 7

Grizzlies +145
Clippers -165

Series play: 2 units Grizzlies +145

I like it a lot....best of luck Jess this playoff season....let me know if it wins cause I won't be watching.....but appreciate the angles we've talked about

 

[Happy Hippo]

I like it a lot....best of luck Jess this playoff season....let me know if it wins cause I won't be watching.....but appreciate the angles we've talked about

As always, your insight is much appreciated in all aspects. In between watching hot, sweaty men compete on the more important court, don't be afraid to flip over to the Nuggets series and watch a few plays. They are the opposite of the individual glorification filled superstar team, and you might actually find some enjoyment in their unique style of team play.

Then again, Serena is pretty slammin' - hard to find more compelling viewing. I know how much you enjoy her.

Cheers

 

[Happy Hippo]

ROUND 1 MATCHUPS EAST


Heat-Bucks

Not sure this series even needs a write-up, but I?ll attempt one anyway. The Bucks major defensive strength, in an otherwise bad scheme, is their interior defense. Sanders is one of the best defenders of the paint in the league. Unfortunately, Bosh is the best mid-range shooter in the league this season (52% from 16-23 feet), so the Bucks can?t pack the paint against the Heat and wait for them to penetrate. If Sanders moves out on Bosh, other players will have their way inside, so it is a no-win situation. Although Milwaukee has a good backcourt, they are certainly outclassed in this one. The Bucks have taken great care of the ball this season, but against the aggressive traps and constant pressure of Miami, they may struggle.

Spoelstra continues to impress, even with his world class players. The patient offense he has developed exposes weaknesses of opponents. In a league heavy on pick and rolls, the Heat use them to their advantage as distractions for other developments happening off the ball. Their small ball approach has them often playing a 5-out system, with players moving around the three point line probing for gaps, and it works. They are near the bottom in mid-range jump shots, the worst shot in the league (even with the best shooter in this range). They are not a good rebounding team, but rebounding is not a good indicator of great teams, as it actually punishes teams for good offensive efficiency. The Heat also maintain their possession margin by forcing turnovers and blocking shots. It is evident how well Spoelstra?s system works, because even when the star players don?t play, the Heat win games.

This series is just teams in two completely different classes. It is unfortunate for the Bucks, because they could actually make waves against some other playoffs teams, but against the Heat it will be ripples. Ripples are not enough to extinguish this flame.

My prediction: Heat in 4

The line is not even worth posting.

No play in this series.

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Thanks for sharing the info, HH!! Much appreciated!!

GL with the post-season and your props bets!! Nuggetts could be a sleeper in the West, especially playing at home!

:0074

 

[Happy Hippo]

Knicks-Celtics

In what is being dubbed the ?Honey Nut Cheerios? series, the hot heads should be rampant. There is no love lost between these playoff foes. Beyond the obvious basketball match ups, there will be jeers and lots of game talk going on behind the plays. Carmelo and J. R. Smith are in the top 8 in technical fouls this year, and Chandler is not far behind, showing their propensity for allowing opponents to get in their heads. Carmelo has struggled at times when players are able to emotionally disturb him. Keeping cool will be important for both these teams.

Pierce has historically played great against the Knicks. Avery Bradley is one of the best on ball defenders in the league, and the Celtics defense has improved greatly since his return. They struggled defensively early in the season, but Bradley has powered them to the fifth overall defensive rating. The Celtics are 12th in the league in defending the three point line, and the Knicks are the most three-reliant team in the league. In their wins this season, the Knicks have averaged nearly 40% from beyond the arc, and in their losses they have averaged just 32.6%. They are last in the league in points in the paint. The Knicks actually play a lot like the Warriors offensively, in that they are dependent on long range shooters. The difference is that they have more players that can create their own shots.

If the Celtics can limit their good looks outside, they have a chance to win some games. Aggressive defense is the key for the Celtics. The Knicks have been the best team in the league this season at limiting turnovers, and the Celtics are in the top ten in turnovers against.

The Knicks have some injury concerns - Prigioni sprained his ankle and Shumpert banged up his knee again, Chandler?s neck and a bunch of other old guys who are not in the prime of their health. The Knicks need a healthy Chandler inside to defend against Garnett. The key for this series may be who can stay healthier.

The Celtics have struggled recently, losing ten of their last fifteen games, while the Knicks are coming in red hot. A star having an outstanding year, momentum, and home court should make the difference in this one. I have not had a great feel for either of these teams this season. I think this series has the most potential for a big upset, but the Knicks will probably pull it out at the end.

My prediction: Knicks in 7

Celtics +290
Knicks -350

No play in this series.

 

[Happy Hippo]

Thanks for sharing the info, HH!! Much appreciated!!

GL with the post-season and your props bets!! Nuggetts could be a sleeper in the West, especially playing at home!

:0074

Thanks Wild man - best of luck to you as well. Great to see you close out the second half of the season with some nice money!

 

[Happy Hippo]

Pacers-Hawks

The Pacers have had a rough go of it lately, but this is the perfect series for them to recover form. For those of you who I correspond with regularly, you know there are two teams all season that I basically refused to bet on except in extreme circumstances: the Pistons and the Hawks. Two teams with bad coaches and inconsistent play.

Josh Smith is one of the most over-rated players in the league. He is a horrible shooter when he tries to create his own shot off the dribble and has very bad shot selection from outside. It is no wonder the Hawks also have one of the worst home courts in the league - I don?t know who would want to go see this guy play. He should have plenty of inefficient mid-range jumpers in this series, as the Pacers are the best defensive team in the league, and they smartly concede this statistically bad shot to willing, and not-so-smart opponents.

The Hawks team has very little identity, while the Pacers are clearly defined by their defensive prowess. In this playoff series, the Pacers will dictate the style and should have their way with the half-court sets. They allow only 99.7 points per 100 possessions, leading the league in this category. The Pacers hold opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 45.3% on the season (42% shooting percentage). When the Hawks shoot below 44% this season, they are 8-21 SU (-7.1 ppg), averaging just 87.8 ppg. The Hawks rely on spot up shooting for the majority of their points, and the Pacers are the number one team in defending this play.

Hibbert has been playing great near the end of the season, and he has really developed his offensive game to go along with his great defense. The Hawks have been injury prone with their frontcourt. If Petro logs a lot of minutes, expect Hibbert to have a field day inside, as Petro?s defensive rating this season vs. the Pacers was 131.7. The Pacers don?t have a great offense, but they are very balanced and have a lot of different options for their go-to plays. They should be able to exploit match ups all over the floor, depending on how the Hawks decide to play them.

The Hawks are the third to last team in the league at home ATS this season, covering only 35.9% of their games, which shows how they consistently underperform at home. The Pacers are the ninth best road team this season, and playing on the road in an arena with one of the worst home crowds should allow them to grab a game or even two in Atlanta. This series should be short and sweet, and I expect the Pacers to find some of their early season form against a team that is just not very good.

Personally, I think a team that manages less than 60 points in 48 minutes of an NBA game during the regular season should be automatically excluded from the playoffs. But, until they wisely instigate my rule, the Pacers will have to take care of business. I?ll give the Hawks one, and only because Kyle Korver is their best player and he wears high socks.

Hopefully it can be swift and sweet, so Larry Drew can join Lawrence Frank on the shores of Bora Bora, and they can sip Mai Tais in peace and discuss their mutual woes.

My prediction: Pacers in 5

Hawks +305
Pacers -365


Play: Parlay Pacers-Nuggets Series

Risking 3.69 to win 2 units

 

[THE KOD]

nice record

gl in playoffs

:0008

 

[Happy Hippo]

Thanks KOD



Nets-Bulls

Thibodeau has worked magic with this injury prone Bulls team that has been short-handed and ever changing this season. The Bulls have used 14 different starting line ups, and managed to be successful without one of the best players in the league.

The Nets do not allow teams to score very many points, but this is not related to their defensive efficiency, but rather is due to the sluggish pace they play. Defensively, they rank right in the middle of the pack, but they play the second slowest pace in the league. Offensively, the Nets are one of the most isolation dependent teams, and their offense is not particularly fluid. This makes the Bulls job on defense a bit easier, as the only way to break down really good defensive teams is through fast side to side passing, which the Nets do not employ. The Nets are 25th in the league in assist rate and 4th in the league in isolation points. They don?t really run any other offensive plays well, which is probably why they don?t even try, and the Bulls should be well prepared and able to shut them down defensively. In this season's match ups, the Bulls have forced a turnover in nearly a fifth of the Net's possessions.

The Nets are in the top five in both defensive and offensive inconsistency in the league. This season, the Nets scored above their season average only 10 times against teams with a winning record, and defended better than their season average only 15 times against teams with a winning record. They are really good...sometimes, and a lot of times when they play bad teams.

The Bulls are not exactly an offensive powerhouse, but they somehow manage to score just enough points to beat opponents. The Nets have no answer for Boozer, who has averaged over 20 points and 53.8% from the field, as well grabbed 10.7 rebounds against them this season. Butler has been playing great lately, and should see a lot of time during this series. Noah is still nagged by a foot injury, but if he can play through the pain and cover enough ground on defense, the Bulls should be able to pull this out.

In a series that will be micromanaged by both coaches, the Bulls play a smarter game than the Nets, and in the end their defensive nature will be enough to win what should be a slow, low-scoring, rather boring, series.

My prediction: Bulls in 6

Bulls +115
Nets -135

Series play: 2 units Bulls +115

 

[Jaxx]

Thanks for the write-ups HH !
Best in Town
GL

:0008

 

[margwellus]

love the write-ups Hippo and welcome back...really agree with the Pacers especially. Hawks look lame and with no ZaZa or Lou Williams don't think they can stay with the Pacers. If I could suggest ONE PLAY to make it would be on the pacers to win this series..The juice isn't that high and think this one's about as easy as it could get....a good way to build some cushion for the rest of the playoffs....will be playing them in the 1st game as well....max bet money line play....Was hoping you might have better things to say about the Warriors, but i think that's my heart talking, not my head...was hoping that without Gallinari and Fareed hurting and Lawson not 100% that you might see some shot for the Human Torch and the crew..but your points have made me shy away from playing GS. same goes for the Clip Show...love that team and can't stand Zach Randolph and the pesky Grizzlies crew. again, you make great points and while the Clips do "go to sleep" for stretches of games I think CP3, Blake and 6th man of the year (sorry Jarett Jack) Jamal Crawford find a way to push past the Grizz once again...as for the rest of the east, I was born and raised a knick fan, but haven't been invested in that team since Van Gundy left..can't stand Dolan and what the MSG brass did to that team, the whole Isiaah debacle, etc. But love Melo and there's life in the Garden again. But I can't count out the heart of a warrior in DOC, PP and KG...but I agree, i think the Knicks eke it out....at least I hope so....anyway, good luck, enjoy the action and thanks, as always for sharing your insight and thoughts....:0008