Playoffs Round One
- Thread starter Happy Hippo
- Start date
- Mar 18, 2009
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Beware of Memphis this could be the sleeper team out of the west in my opinion. Had a great year in the Association and hopefully we can all do it again next year HH. Great write ups:0074
Good stuff Hippo!! Thanks for the write ups. Thank Agent for the dog food post as well.Good luck with your plays. :toast:
Love the write-ups, HH! Great regular season record and glad you're back posting in the post-season.
Let's do damage this post-season! :0074
Let's do damage this post-season! :0074
- Mar 2, 2006
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Thanks all -
margwellus - good thoughts. Love the Pacers, in my opinion the second best team in the East, and Hawks are not even playoff caliber. Their stumbles down the stretch against the Knicks surge is a big reason for the lower juice in this match up, and I agree that it is probably the most valuable line of any series.
The Warriors sure got out to a hot start this season, but they really fumbled down the stretch. Teams caught on to their strategies, and Jackson just didn't do much to adjust. They were just 5-11 SU against teams with a winning record after the all-star break, whereas the Nuggets were a super impressive 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS. These two teams have just gone in completely different directions over the course of the season, and the Nuggets are peaking at the right time.
I love the fact that the series line opened at Nuggets -550, and has dropped as low as -450. Again, there is a perception of the Nuggets that they are not playoff material, and the lack of a superstar makes them unpopular among the general public. I love it. I spend about an hour a day reading articles on basketball and NBA teams in general, and the analysis I have read of the Nuggets this season has been some of the most impressive. George Karl should be coach of the year.
The Clippers series will be tough played, but again I think there is a general perception that the Clippers are better because they have bigger stars than the Grizzlies. The biggest factor for me in this series is coaching, and I just think Del Negro sucks. The Clippers might win in spite of that, but I have to give the edge to the Grizz.
Cheers, and best of luck
margwellus - good thoughts. Love the Pacers, in my opinion the second best team in the East, and Hawks are not even playoff caliber. Their stumbles down the stretch against the Knicks surge is a big reason for the lower juice in this match up, and I agree that it is probably the most valuable line of any series.
The Warriors sure got out to a hot start this season, but they really fumbled down the stretch. Teams caught on to their strategies, and Jackson just didn't do much to adjust. They were just 5-11 SU against teams with a winning record after the all-star break, whereas the Nuggets were a super impressive 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS. These two teams have just gone in completely different directions over the course of the season, and the Nuggets are peaking at the right time.
I love the fact that the series line opened at Nuggets -550, and has dropped as low as -450. Again, there is a perception of the Nuggets that they are not playoff material, and the lack of a superstar makes them unpopular among the general public. I love it. I spend about an hour a day reading articles on basketball and NBA teams in general, and the analysis I have read of the Nuggets this season has been some of the most impressive. George Karl should be coach of the year.
The Clippers series will be tough played, but again I think there is a general perception that the Clippers are better because they have bigger stars than the Grizzlies. The biggest factor for me in this series is coaching, and I just think Del Negro sucks. The Clippers might win in spite of that, but I have to give the edge to the Grizz.
Cheers, and best of luck
- Mar 2, 2006
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Completely agree. Like I said, wish they could get out of the west because I think they match up the best against the Heat of any team in the western conference, but... I don't think they have quite enough offensively to do it. But, they are my third favorite to come out of the west, and anything can happen.
Best of luck in the post-season, grindstone - look forward to your plays
- Mar 2, 2006
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Saturday, April 20
Game 1:
A match-up of slugs. Two teams in the bottom five in pace on the season. One team in the bottom five on offense, and the top five in defense. One team that is average at just about everything. A reffing crew that combined to go 4-11 O/U with a total under 185.5 this season. Players coming back from injuries and taking some time to acclimate. Hopefully, that's enough.
Bulls-Nets UNDER 181.5
Good luck...
Game 1:
A match-up of slugs. Two teams in the bottom five in pace on the season. One team in the bottom five on offense, and the top five in defense. One team that is average at just about everything. A reffing crew that combined to go 4-11 O/U with a total under 185.5 this season. Players coming back from injuries and taking some time to acclimate. Hopefully, that's enough.
Bulls-Nets UNDER 181.5
Good luck...
- Mar 18, 2009
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- Mar 2, 2006
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Saturday, April 20
4:20 pm
Yea, it's Nugget time.
The Nuggets are 3-1 SU and ATS this season against the Warriors, with three of these games coming in November when the Warriors were playing super stellar, and the Nuggets were still feeling out their team. The Nuggets have been favored in every match up this season, and the only game they lost was by one point with the Warriors playing on four days rest. In the most recent game in Denver, the Nuggets won by eleven. The Warriors were super hot at the beginning of the season, but since the New Year, they were just 1-14 SU (-9.7 ppg) and 4-11 ATS when facing winning teams on the road. On the flip side, the Nuggets were 17-0 SU (+11.8 ppg) and 14-3 ATS at home since the New Year when playing against teams with a winning record.
The total in this game indicates that it should be a fast paced, offensive game, which plays right into the Nugget?s strengths. The Nuggets are 19-0 SU (+12.2 ppg) and 17-2 ATS this season when playing in a game where the total is 210 or more.
I said a lot about this match up already in my series post. Three seeds playing as a home favorite against six seeds are 8-1 SU (+10.3 ppg) and 6-3 ATS in the last ten seasons when the total is 200 or greater. Although the head referee for this game has a slight favoritism towards road dogs, the two supporting referees support the home favorite, and in fact the Nuggets are 17-3 ATS in the last twenty games that these two referees have called.
The Nuggets are first in points in the paint this season, setting an NBA record while averaging 58 per game. The Warriors are fifth to last, and the Nuggets eclipse them inside by nearly 20 points per game. The Nuggets are also first in the league in fast break points, beating the Warriors average by over 5 ppg. Teams playing as a home favorite in the playoffs that win these two categories are 215-48 SU (+10.3 ppg average margin of victory of all games, and +14 ppg in wins) and they cover the spread 66.2% of the time since the 2002 season. And if they can win the points in the paint by 10 or more, teams cover the spread 72.2% of the time. The Nuggets should be up to this task today.
Faried will not start and will have limited minutes if he plays at all, and other players will have to step in and fill his role. This man may be one - Javale McGee: ''I don't feel any expectations. I feel like we're underdogs and that people feel we're lucky with what our record is, but we'll show them.''
Even though they are the favorite in this series and game, they are still the underdog. Who would think that a team with this starting line-up:
Ty Lawson, Evan Fournier, Andre Iguodala, Wilson Chandler, Kosta Koufos
would be all the great? Karl and Ujiri have built a team, and today they will prove why they had the best home court in the league.
Nuggets -7.5
Good luck...
4:20 pm
Yea, it's Nugget time.
The Nuggets are 3-1 SU and ATS this season against the Warriors, with three of these games coming in November when the Warriors were playing super stellar, and the Nuggets were still feeling out their team. The Nuggets have been favored in every match up this season, and the only game they lost was by one point with the Warriors playing on four days rest. In the most recent game in Denver, the Nuggets won by eleven. The Warriors were super hot at the beginning of the season, but since the New Year, they were just 1-14 SU (-9.7 ppg) and 4-11 ATS when facing winning teams on the road. On the flip side, the Nuggets were 17-0 SU (+11.8 ppg) and 14-3 ATS at home since the New Year when playing against teams with a winning record.
The total in this game indicates that it should be a fast paced, offensive game, which plays right into the Nugget?s strengths. The Nuggets are 19-0 SU (+12.2 ppg) and 17-2 ATS this season when playing in a game where the total is 210 or more.
I said a lot about this match up already in my series post. Three seeds playing as a home favorite against six seeds are 8-1 SU (+10.3 ppg) and 6-3 ATS in the last ten seasons when the total is 200 or greater. Although the head referee for this game has a slight favoritism towards road dogs, the two supporting referees support the home favorite, and in fact the Nuggets are 17-3 ATS in the last twenty games that these two referees have called.
The Nuggets are first in points in the paint this season, setting an NBA record while averaging 58 per game. The Warriors are fifth to last, and the Nuggets eclipse them inside by nearly 20 points per game. The Nuggets are also first in the league in fast break points, beating the Warriors average by over 5 ppg. Teams playing as a home favorite in the playoffs that win these two categories are 215-48 SU (+10.3 ppg average margin of victory of all games, and +14 ppg in wins) and they cover the spread 66.2% of the time since the 2002 season. And if they can win the points in the paint by 10 or more, teams cover the spread 72.2% of the time. The Nuggets should be up to this task today.
Faried will not start and will have limited minutes if he plays at all, and other players will have to step in and fill his role. This man may be one - Javale McGee: ''I don't feel any expectations. I feel like we're underdogs and that people feel we're lucky with what our record is, but we'll show them.''
Even though they are the favorite in this series and game, they are still the underdog. Who would think that a team with this starting line-up:
Ty Lawson, Evan Fournier, Andre Iguodala, Wilson Chandler, Kosta Koufos
would be all the great? Karl and Ujiri have built a team, and today they will prove why they had the best home court in the league.
Nuggets -7.5
Good luck...
- Mar 18, 2009
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- Mar 2, 2006
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adlock: ACTION
Boston C's +7.5
GLTA
Ended up close but a well deserved cover. Nice to start with a win. Great call!
:00hour
- Mar 18, 2009
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Boston C's +7.5 :00hour
GLTA
C's gave it away 8 points, 3-11 from the field, 8 turnovers in the 4th Q alone. May be the worst quarter of playoff basketball I've ever seen. Thank God I had the 1/2 pt it saved my day :0074
- Mar 18, 2009
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Thanks alot HH gonna be very picky in the playoffs so stay tuned. GL with your action today. Sprinkling a little beer $$$ on
ACTION
adlock: CHI BULLS +5
GL HH
- Mar 2, 2006
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Yes, they certainly did. Nuggets had a chance to close them out, but they were out of sync in the fourth. The Warriors did a nice job on them, especially in transition and with their defensive schemes. I was impressed.
The Nuggets did manage to outscore the Warriors in fast break points and by 10 in points in the paint, so they join the exclusive club of 27.8% home playoff favorites that fail to cover. I only watched from the middle of the third until the end - what a display by Andre Miller. Love that guy - plays like he is in slow motion and it is not pretty to watch, but he is very smart. Seems like the Nuggets missed Faried a lot. Awesome shot by Curry too - great game all around. As a basketball fan, can't ask for much more, even if as a bettor my balance is a bit lighter.
"Our personality is young, but we believe, we trust, we fight. Playoff basketball isn't about easy games." - George Karl.
- Apr 2, 2005
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Hippo, Warriors outplayed them in the 1st. Denver looked bad in the half court set. They miss Faried's energy. Miller saved the day. Warriors shot horribly and they missed David lee in the 2nd half. I hope his injury isn't season ending...that would be a big blow to that team. lotta ball left and I still don't count them out of the series. Line won't be 8.5 next game that's for sure...more like 7 or 6.5.. and as for da Bulls, well, they're done.....without Noah at full tilt they have no answer for Lopez and without Rose no answer for Williams...nuff said there...:shrug:
- Mar 2, 2006
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Thanks for the info - I read over the play-by-play and looked through the box score. Seemed like a good hard fought game by both teams. Things that stood out for me:
Bogut came up big in his protection of the paint, and the Warriors did a good job in transition, but Karl said if people think that one game is going to change his strategy, it?s not, and they are going to push even harder in the next game. The Nuggets were shooting just 19% from the field during one span of 18 minutes, and were still up 8 near the end of the game. Without Faried, their second chance points were the lowest they had all season, but big credit to Warriors there, as they are the best defensive rebounding team in the league. Denver shot 18.8% from beyond the arc and 64.3% from the line. Warriors struggled with turnovers, but Denver was not able to convert them into easy points. Given all this, the Nuggets were lucky to get the victory, which is huge credit to Karl for putting in the right personnel at the right time.
Faried should play next game, I hope Lee plays as well.
Not counting out the Bulls just yet - let's give them one more game. Thibodeau makes them a very resilient team, and the Nets are streaky. Didn't watch a minute of that game though, as it is too painful to watch the Bulls try to play offense.
Good luck!
- Mar 2, 2006
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