Playoffs: 1-3 (-2.3)
Tuesday, 4/23:
Looking at the first games in many of these series, I try to see whether the performances by teams were typical, or if they were filled more with statistical anomalies. The first games in many of these series were outliers. The first game in the Bulls-Nets series provides a few examples. That was the first playoff game in Brooklyn since the 1950s, and adrenaline was running high. Gerald Wallace was an efficient 5-7 from the field, which is very unusual for him. The Nets outscored the Bulls in the paint 56-36 (40-8 in the first half), and the Bulls are the fifth best team at defending the paint. The Nets shot over 55% from the field, and this is just not going to happen normally in this series. Last night was more like how the this series should play out. When I look at the games tonight, this is the approach I use, and I think the Nuggets-Warriors game provides more examples of anomalies.
In the last game, the Nuggets only had five second-chance points, their lowest mark this whole season. The Nuggets were 7-for-30 from the field in one span of 18 minutes, which is uncharacteristic for the 5th best FGP team in the league. Denver shot 18.8% from beyond the arc and 64.3% from the line. The Nuggets scored under their season average for points in the paint, and were out-rebounded by ten. Even with all these factors, they were still up eight points late in the game.
The Lee injury hurts the Warriors a lot - he is their Faried, but even better... a constant hustler and playmaker. Landry can step in nicely on scoring and defense, but his presence also presents a lot of spacing problems, as both he and Bogut like to play in the low-post (which is why they only logged 53 total minutes together this season). In the first game, the Nuggets essentially just left Barnes opened and doubled on Curry with high traps, and also helped aggressively in the paint. They can use this strategy even more effectively without Lee on the floor. And now the Warriors are left with a bench of offensive bigs that can?t score in Green, Biedrins, and Ezeli. Perhaps the most important thing that Lee provides that these other players cannot is versatility and unpredictability. His player impact rating is 14.1%, and this is the highest rating for any player on his team (and good for 18th overall in the league).
Faried will play tonight, although he may not start. Karl said, ?In Game 1 we lost the rebounding game, and that?s something we don?t like to do, and he?s a key to maybe recouping that stat. And he?s contagious. His enthusiasm is contagious, having no fear is contagious, his competitive spirit is contagious.? Missing Lee?s 14 rebounds from the last game will have a significant impact on the Warriors, who rely on good defensive rebounding to maintain their possession margin. Denver is the best offensive rebounding team in the league, and this category should be swayed significantly in their favor tonight. The Warriors should play even more zone in this game, as it did bother the Nuggets, but Karl will make adjustments and the Nuggets should shoot better than their last attempts from beyond the arc.
All playoff trends are for the last ten seasons. Although none of these trends are eye-dropping, I will include them anyway. Teams playing as a road dog in the playoffs in the second game of a series are 7-21 SU (-10.8 ppg) and 11-17 ATS when they are coming off a loss where they had a 9 or more point lead. Road dogs playing against the same team in a playoff series are 11-41 SU (-9.9 ppg) and 16-36 ATS when they covered the spread by more than 5 points and the previous game also went under the total by 10 or more points. Teams playing in the second game of a series are 14-0 SU (+12.9 ppg) and 9-5 ATS when playing as a home favorite after winning the first game in the series but failing to cover the spread. Teams playing as a home favorite in the playoffs cover 57% of the time if they failed to cover in their last game.
The Nuggets have won 24 straight home games by an average margin of 12, and although they got a scare in the last one, I think they will win big tonight. During this stretch (not surprisingly), they are 71% ATS. The Nuggets are 13-1 SU (+16.9 ppg) and 12-2 ATS this season playing as a home favorite coming off a game that went under the total. They can easily fix their offense, and the defense is playing well.
Nuggets: 107-92
Nuggets -8
Good luck...
