Spurs-Warriors
All basketball fans are excited to see Curry, the emerging star, take the floor once again tonight. What a first round series he did have. 24.3 ppg, leading all playoff players with 9.3 assists, and shooting 43% from downtown. So far, he has been the third most efficient player in the post-season. The Warriors were +52 when he was on the court and -27 when he was off. He is the only NBA player in history to get 7 or more assists and make four three pointers in four straight playoff games. But still, I only called him a star and not a superstar. This is because amid all his spectacular play, Curry still had two glaring weaknesses, which were his turnovers and his clutch ability. The Warriors nearly blew games 3 and 6 against the Nuggets because they were so sloppy near the end of the games, which highlights not only their young age but also their playoff inexperience and Curry?s lack of leadership. The greatest players become better in the biggest moments, not sloppy. Reference Durant last night, as he took five of the Thunder?s final six shots (in possessions where he started with the ball in the backcourt) and made four of them. He had 12 fourth quarter points and touched the ball 15 times. Superstars get better in the clutch. The Nuggets had many chances to turn this series around, and they didn?t take advantage. But you can?t be sloppy against the Spurs, and give up big runs to them, because they will take full advantage. In his postgame interview, Curry said there was ?A lot of miscommunication and playing on their heels?, and this is exactly the type of chaos that the regimented, tested Spurs will exploit in this series.
The Warriors took advantage of Denver?s poor perimeter defenders in the last series, but the Spurs match up way better and will not have to trap Curry so much. Parker, Ginobili, Leonard, and Green are all tough perimeter defenders, and they can slow down the Warriors shooters and force turnovers. The Spurs were the best first round fastbreak team in the playoffs, and they will feast off of turnovers and long rebounds during this series. During the regular season, the Spurs forced 14.5 turnovers from the Warriors. The Spurs are just a way better defensive team than the Nuggets, and the Warriors offensive efficiency rating is not going to post astronomical numbers like in the first round. In the regular season, the Spurs starting lineup outscored the Warriors by 20 points per 100 possessions, which was mainly due to the fact that they held the Warriors to 17.3 points under their average scoring efficiency rating.
Some teams just own other teams, and some players own other players. Sure, it is different rosters, different coaches, etc, but you can look back in history and verify that this does occur for certain franchises - they just can?t beat certain other teams. This would be true for the Warriors against the Spurs. In fact, Golden State has never beat a Duncan manned Spur?s team in San Antonio (yes, that would span back for 16 years). Duncan in his career is 28-0 at home against the Warriors in games that he played in, and 19-6 in Oakland, adding up to a solid 47-6.
Let?s talk Timmy for a minute. His 36 minute scoring average this season is higher than it has been in eight seasons. His blocks per minute and free throw percentage are the highest they have ever been in his career. He is one of the quietest superstars in the league. He doesn?t get much media hype, but he is the nucleus of this championship Spurs franchise. Duncan will have his way on the inside with whoever guards him in this series, but he also knows when to pass and is one of the better bigs in the league at finding open players. The Warriors play good on-ball defense, but they are going to have a hard time against a Spurs team that passes the ball from side to side and executes multiple actions around the floor in pick n? roll situations. It is too much rotating for the Warriors to keep tabs on, and the Spurs have too many weapons. The Warriors were able to stymie the Nuggets by switching into a zone that really bothered them, but this won't work against a Spurs team that is much better at shooting and exploiting open space.
In the Warriors post-game interviews after the Nuggets series, they did not sound like a team on a mission, or a team convinced they could get to the finals. In fact, they were a team that was happy to be in their position, just happy to be moving on to get another shot. Curry said they were all relieved to finally win a playoff series. The Spurs have a completely different mentality. Duncan is having one of his best seasons in years, but he realizes that he is a superstar on the fall, not the rise. His chances of achieving the ultimate goal are limited. This team is bound and determined. The Spurs are mentally tough, and they know better than to take the Warriors for granted. Pop and other players stressed how good the Warriors were in their pre-game interviews.
The Warriors did accomplish something great by getting out of the first round, and now they may play that way. Both teams played above expectations in the first round. The Spurs swept their series, but have now had a few days off. For some teams, this may kill momentum, but for an older team like this I think it will help them recuperate. In the past ten playoff years, the Spurs are 6-0 in the playoffs when playing on four or more days of rest, winning by nearly 11 points per game. Starting with a win is always a good thing.
The Spurs and Warriors split the season series, but that means little to nothing. The Spurs lost in overtime on a back to back after beating the Clippers, and Tony Parker hobbled through the game. Then in April, the Spurs played without Duncan, Leonard, Parker, or Ginobili, and were still only down three going into the fourth, eventually losing by ten.
The Warriors are fun. They exemplify the new school in the NBA - young, fast, fiery coach, emerging star. The Spurs are the opposite - old school, same veteran players year after year, tried and tested coach, a superstar that has been there for 16 years and is having one of his best. This series is a battle between a team that is blossoming and a team that is ripe.
In the end, all things can't be equal. The team with the best coach, best superstar, and the best supporting players, will find a way to get this done.
Spurs in 5
