Lines as of the time wagers were made:
Full plays:
Iowa St +24.5
Ill +2
TTU -3.5
K St -13
Miss St +12.5
Neb -14
ECU +14.5
Half plays:
UConn -14
FSU/Miami over 43
Colo +3
GT/Clem under 46
Quarter plays:
Fla St +1.5
Mich St -26
Pur -30
ND +13.5
UGA -8
FAU +7
Ark St +41
Ole Miss +11
E Mich +37.5
Marsh +16.5
UCF +21
Temple +27
__________________
Analysis:
Iowa St +24.5
Iowa lost three starting OL and struggled on the ground, gaining just 197 yds on 57 carries (<3.5 ypr) vs. the atrocious rush D of Kent. Iowa D was as stout as last year, 110 yds on 55 plays or 2.0 yppl.
Iowa St put up very similar numbers against a Northern Iowa team that is considerably better than a Cribbs-less Kent (and probably better than Kent *with* Cribbs): 56-204 on the ground (3.6 ypr); D allowed 80 yards on 41 plays for ... 2.0 yppl. Iowa St obviously quit last year, but that kind of performance requires some effort, and they should play hard against the instate rival. Note that as bad as Iowa State's season turned out last year, they still stayed within this number (losing 40-21 at home as +4) and outgained Iowa 390-243. Post hoc ergo propter hoc? Well, who knows, but Iowa State didn't cover agin after that loss, their first loss to Iowa after 4 straight wins. Note that Iowa was just -29 last week vs. Kent. Incredibly, with this line, the oddsmaker is making the statement that ISU is just 4.5 points better than Kent -- without Cribbs!
________________
TTU -3.5
It's interesting to watch the psychology of the sports bettor. Everyone was on Tech last weekend, but I stayed off it just as a matter of courtesy to a friend (an SMU alumnus) who swore the line should be SMU +9. Good thing I did! I saved a bunch of money, and just as importantly I can now look at this game without an anti-Tech prejudice. It seems like almost everyone was on Tech last week, and they got burned and they want nothing to do with Tech this week. In contrast, last year no one thought the 13.5 points were enough in this matchup that followed on the heels of a 58-10 spanking of SMU (Tech covered by half a point against UNM, 42-28); this year I haven't seen many bettors looking to play Tech at -3.5 on the road.
Tech actually outgained SMU by more yards this year (530-230 vs. 437-280) while winning by 34 fewer points. The new QB Cumbie was 40-66 for 481 yds (7.3 ypp) with 4-0 TD-INT. Although UNM probably should have beaten WSU last week, UNM may still prove to be weaker than last year's edition, at least on defense. I also have a 20-0 momentum angle backing Tech, and Tech is 20-9 as a favorite under Leach.
____________________
ECU +14.5
I love this play - ECU looked horrible against the run last week, allowing 56-478 for 8.5 yards per rush. Wake runs the ball, they should roll, right? Well, that's how it looked last year, after ECU started 0-3 before heading to Winston-Salem. The first three games were similar to last week's game v. WVU:
at Cincinati: allowed 361 rush yards at 6.4 ypr
vs. WVU: allowed 361 rush yards at 7.5 ypr
at Mia Fla: allowed 234 rush yards at 6.2 ypr
But Wake managed just 193 yards at 3.5 ypr. Wake's scheme is not a power running game; it's not what bad rush defenses tend to have a problem with. And this is not the role in which Wake thrives. Wake is just 4-10 as a favorite under Grobe, including a non-cover vs. ECU last year as -19.5 in Winston-Salem (the only time the Deacs have laid more than two TD's to an opponent), despite Wake being +4 in turnovers. (Score was 34-16.) I like ECU to stay within the number at home.
Full plays:
Iowa St +24.5
Ill +2
TTU -3.5
K St -13
Miss St +12.5
Neb -14
ECU +14.5
Half plays:
UConn -14
FSU/Miami over 43
Colo +3
GT/Clem under 46
Quarter plays:
Fla St +1.5
Mich St -26
Pur -30
ND +13.5
UGA -8
FAU +7
Ark St +41
Ole Miss +11
E Mich +37.5
Marsh +16.5
UCF +21
Temple +27
__________________
Analysis:
Iowa St +24.5
Iowa lost three starting OL and struggled on the ground, gaining just 197 yds on 57 carries (<3.5 ypr) vs. the atrocious rush D of Kent. Iowa D was as stout as last year, 110 yds on 55 plays or 2.0 yppl.
Iowa St put up very similar numbers against a Northern Iowa team that is considerably better than a Cribbs-less Kent (and probably better than Kent *with* Cribbs): 56-204 on the ground (3.6 ypr); D allowed 80 yards on 41 plays for ... 2.0 yppl. Iowa St obviously quit last year, but that kind of performance requires some effort, and they should play hard against the instate rival. Note that as bad as Iowa State's season turned out last year, they still stayed within this number (losing 40-21 at home as +4) and outgained Iowa 390-243. Post hoc ergo propter hoc? Well, who knows, but Iowa State didn't cover agin after that loss, their first loss to Iowa after 4 straight wins. Note that Iowa was just -29 last week vs. Kent. Incredibly, with this line, the oddsmaker is making the statement that ISU is just 4.5 points better than Kent -- without Cribbs!
________________
TTU -3.5
It's interesting to watch the psychology of the sports bettor. Everyone was on Tech last weekend, but I stayed off it just as a matter of courtesy to a friend (an SMU alumnus) who swore the line should be SMU +9. Good thing I did! I saved a bunch of money, and just as importantly I can now look at this game without an anti-Tech prejudice. It seems like almost everyone was on Tech last week, and they got burned and they want nothing to do with Tech this week. In contrast, last year no one thought the 13.5 points were enough in this matchup that followed on the heels of a 58-10 spanking of SMU (Tech covered by half a point against UNM, 42-28); this year I haven't seen many bettors looking to play Tech at -3.5 on the road.
Tech actually outgained SMU by more yards this year (530-230 vs. 437-280) while winning by 34 fewer points. The new QB Cumbie was 40-66 for 481 yds (7.3 ypp) with 4-0 TD-INT. Although UNM probably should have beaten WSU last week, UNM may still prove to be weaker than last year's edition, at least on defense. I also have a 20-0 momentum angle backing Tech, and Tech is 20-9 as a favorite under Leach.
____________________
ECU +14.5
I love this play - ECU looked horrible against the run last week, allowing 56-478 for 8.5 yards per rush. Wake runs the ball, they should roll, right? Well, that's how it looked last year, after ECU started 0-3 before heading to Winston-Salem. The first three games were similar to last week's game v. WVU:
at Cincinati: allowed 361 rush yards at 6.4 ypr
vs. WVU: allowed 361 rush yards at 7.5 ypr
at Mia Fla: allowed 234 rush yards at 6.2 ypr
But Wake managed just 193 yards at 3.5 ypr. Wake's scheme is not a power running game; it's not what bad rush defenses tend to have a problem with. And this is not the role in which Wake thrives. Wake is just 4-10 as a favorite under Grobe, including a non-cover vs. ECU last year as -19.5 in Winston-Salem (the only time the Deacs have laid more than two TD's to an opponent), despite Wake being +4 in turnovers. (Score was 34-16.) I like ECU to stay within the number at home.
