I had a great time at the Super Bowl Party meeting some madjackers. I'd like to keep in touch with you guys and give my two cents worth. Although my time is limited I'm going to TRY to post NBA plays daily. I believe in keeping posted records so that's the reason I provide it. Those of whom I met know where to verify my record. All of my plays are from Widely Available lines which means you can always get the number at the time of the post and can get a better number more than 25% of the time. Nice meeting you guys and Good Luck!
Plays for 2/9-2/15 YTD 159-128-4
- Thread starter Pythagoras
- Start date
2/10
2/10
501 Det +4.5
504 Mia +2.5
517 Ut +4.5
I like Miami in this spot. I believe they have roughly a 55% chance to win the game, so Mia +130 ML has value.
2/10
501 Det +4.5
504 Mia +2.5
517 Ut +4.5
I like Miami in this spot. I believe they have roughly a 55% chance to win the game, so Mia +130 ML has value.
2/11
2/11
705 Mia +4.5
714 Hou +1
718 GS -5
IMO, Miami has better than 37.7%(breakeven % on +165 ML) chance to win SU. Assuming Miami has a 45% chance to win, the Expected Value of return is 19.25%
2/11
705 Mia +4.5
714 Hou +1
718 GS -5
IMO, Miami has better than 37.7%(breakeven % on +165 ML) chance to win SU. Assuming Miami has a 45% chance to win, the Expected Value of return is 19.25%
2/11 Adding
2/11 Adding
716 Ut +4
Pho/GS UNDER 194.5
Been waiting for Ut +4.5 to become Widely Available. Grab it if you can.
2/11 Adding
716 Ut +4
Pho/GS UNDER 194.5
Been waiting for Ut +4.5 to become Widely Available. Grab it if you can.
2/12
2/12
505 Den +5
Camby is out, so the line will maybe go up to +6 by gametime if your patient. With Camby I estimated Denver to have a 49% chance of winning this game, however without him it drops slightly to 43% and still has plenty of value on the Money Line. Assuming the chances are 43% for a win, Your Expected Value of Return on +175 ML(higher at some books) is 18.5%. However finding +5.5 will bump your +EV about 2%.
2/12
505 Den +5
Camby is out, so the line will maybe go up to +6 by gametime if your patient. With Camby I estimated Denver to have a 49% chance of winning this game, however without him it drops slightly to 43% and still has plenty of value on the Money Line. Assuming the chances are 43% for a win, Your Expected Value of Return on +175 ML(higher at some books) is 18.5%. However finding +5.5 will bump your +EV about 2%.