4*
Clem -28 -- QB Simmons in his 4th start finally gets a chance for a coming-out party against a D that has allowed 5.3 ypr and 9.5 ypp vs. Mizzou & Indiana State (opposition that averages 17 points weaker than Clemson's opponents). Revitalized defense has faced three good/excellent O's in UGA, La Tech, and Ga Tech and wants a shutout here. That is a realistic prospect given Ball State's trouble with the passing game. Streaky Clemson team gets its seventh straight ATS win. (Over the last 21 games, you'd be 17-3-1 ATS if you just bet that Clemson would repeat its ATS result from the previous game.)
3*
Ill -23.5 -- Last week's win puts Illinois in a solid momentum situation, and Beutjer in just his second start should be focused on playing well this Saturday even with Michigan on deck. Solid returning starter angle also favors Illini.
Iowa -21.5 -- I have a nice bounceback angle on Iowa, and dominant offensive line gives Iowa the ability to score at will on weak D's. Ferentz seems to like to use these games as confidence builders, and Iowa is 5-0 ATS as double-digit favorites under Ferentz.
2*
Ohio St -17.5 -- I have a momentum angle on Ohio State, and a letdown angle against Cincy after last week's loss as a home favorite. Ohio State looks much better this year.
K St -2.5 -- Two underrated teams here, but I rated K State the most underrated team in the country coming into this season, and I will back them here against a very sound USC squad. Several momentum angles favor K State, a team that I rate 2 points better on a neutral field.
Ariz +4.5 -- Arizona QB had a breakout game last week, and I have to give the PAC-10 its due -- the conference has been very strong this season. An ascendant Arizona team with a history of playing well as a road dog gets the nod here against a disappointing Wisconsin team that has not had success as a home favorite.
Duke +45 -- FSU has internal problems, and has not been covering big spreads recently. Duke's improved D gives them a good chance of staying within the number. This is the second-most FSU has ever been favored by against Duke, and this FSU team -- while better than last year's -- is still not up to FSU's usual high standards. With new DC Roof, Duke has improved to a point where it is merely very bad (see 1998 and 1999) as opposed to atrocious (2000 and 2001). In 10 years of ACC play, FSU has beaten Duke by 45+ just twice, and both times the margin was 49. Despite the fact that Duke has been the worst team in the confercence while FSU has been a member, FSU has bowed up and beaten Ga Tech, Clemson, Wake, NC State, UNC, and Maryland by 49+ at least once -- i.e., FSU has beaten every other ACC team except Virginia by as much as -- or more than -- their maximum margin over Duke. It looks like FSU simply can't get interested in poor, pitiful Duke.
La Tech +14.5 -- If UCF could hang within the number at Happy Valley, I don't see why these guys can't as well. Penn State is improved this year, but this looks like a letdown and Penn State may be a little overrated in their own minds, as they probably did not get the "Nebraska is overrated" memo that has been circulating among handicappers for several weeks. Luke McCown gives Tech an excellent chance at a backdoor cover should Penn State give a good effort early. Conference opener vs. Iowa on deck for PSU.
GT -9 -- BYU's dominating season-opening win, I suspect, says more about Syracuse's weakness this year than about BYU's strength. I watched this Georgia Tech team last Saturday, and the defense is solid. They were simply beaten by a very underrated Clemson team. Living in Dallas, I'm skeptical of Coach Gailey, but I expect them to bounce back here.
Notre Dame +3 -- Michigan State has beaten Our Lady of the Lake five straight times, but the coaching change gives us a reason to think that things will be different this year. Notre Dame's current form is far superior to Michigan State's, and I was very surprised to see Noter Dame as a dog here. FWIW, Willingham's Stanford team smoked Michigan State -- Willingham's alma mater -- 38-0 in a bowl game in '96.
1*
Utah +10.5 - a road dog that can play D is attractive against an offensively challenged traditional power that is 23-42-1 ATS as a favorite of 4 points or more under Carr. Utah is 16-1 ATS as a road dog of 2 or more points. Michigan could be focused to bounce back off loss to ND, so I will play this small.
Troy +17 -- I'm not entirely sold on the Iowa State hype, but regardless -- Troy State is a decent team that played well against an overrated Nebraska team. This looks like a letdown/lookahead spot for ISU, although ISU is 3-0 ATS off a win over Iowa and 7-0 ATS before playing Nebraska under McCarney. A solid letdown angle applies against ISU, but proceed with caution.
Kansas +10.5 -- Strictly an angle play. The same angle that applied in BGSU's favor last Saturday applies against them this week. Kansas is awful, but I'll venture a small wager against a Bowling Green squad that may be a bit overconfident.
UConn -4 -- UConn is improving, and Ohio U misses Coach Grobe. I'll try the Huskies -4.
Good luck to all.
Clem -28 -- QB Simmons in his 4th start finally gets a chance for a coming-out party against a D that has allowed 5.3 ypr and 9.5 ypp vs. Mizzou & Indiana State (opposition that averages 17 points weaker than Clemson's opponents). Revitalized defense has faced three good/excellent O's in UGA, La Tech, and Ga Tech and wants a shutout here. That is a realistic prospect given Ball State's trouble with the passing game. Streaky Clemson team gets its seventh straight ATS win. (Over the last 21 games, you'd be 17-3-1 ATS if you just bet that Clemson would repeat its ATS result from the previous game.)
3*
Ill -23.5 -- Last week's win puts Illinois in a solid momentum situation, and Beutjer in just his second start should be focused on playing well this Saturday even with Michigan on deck. Solid returning starter angle also favors Illini.
Iowa -21.5 -- I have a nice bounceback angle on Iowa, and dominant offensive line gives Iowa the ability to score at will on weak D's. Ferentz seems to like to use these games as confidence builders, and Iowa is 5-0 ATS as double-digit favorites under Ferentz.
2*
Ohio St -17.5 -- I have a momentum angle on Ohio State, and a letdown angle against Cincy after last week's loss as a home favorite. Ohio State looks much better this year.
K St -2.5 -- Two underrated teams here, but I rated K State the most underrated team in the country coming into this season, and I will back them here against a very sound USC squad. Several momentum angles favor K State, a team that I rate 2 points better on a neutral field.
Ariz +4.5 -- Arizona QB had a breakout game last week, and I have to give the PAC-10 its due -- the conference has been very strong this season. An ascendant Arizona team with a history of playing well as a road dog gets the nod here against a disappointing Wisconsin team that has not had success as a home favorite.
Duke +45 -- FSU has internal problems, and has not been covering big spreads recently. Duke's improved D gives them a good chance of staying within the number. This is the second-most FSU has ever been favored by against Duke, and this FSU team -- while better than last year's -- is still not up to FSU's usual high standards. With new DC Roof, Duke has improved to a point where it is merely very bad (see 1998 and 1999) as opposed to atrocious (2000 and 2001). In 10 years of ACC play, FSU has beaten Duke by 45+ just twice, and both times the margin was 49. Despite the fact that Duke has been the worst team in the confercence while FSU has been a member, FSU has bowed up and beaten Ga Tech, Clemson, Wake, NC State, UNC, and Maryland by 49+ at least once -- i.e., FSU has beaten every other ACC team except Virginia by as much as -- or more than -- their maximum margin over Duke. It looks like FSU simply can't get interested in poor, pitiful Duke.
La Tech +14.5 -- If UCF could hang within the number at Happy Valley, I don't see why these guys can't as well. Penn State is improved this year, but this looks like a letdown and Penn State may be a little overrated in their own minds, as they probably did not get the "Nebraska is overrated" memo that has been circulating among handicappers for several weeks. Luke McCown gives Tech an excellent chance at a backdoor cover should Penn State give a good effort early. Conference opener vs. Iowa on deck for PSU.
GT -9 -- BYU's dominating season-opening win, I suspect, says more about Syracuse's weakness this year than about BYU's strength. I watched this Georgia Tech team last Saturday, and the defense is solid. They were simply beaten by a very underrated Clemson team. Living in Dallas, I'm skeptical of Coach Gailey, but I expect them to bounce back here.
Notre Dame +3 -- Michigan State has beaten Our Lady of the Lake five straight times, but the coaching change gives us a reason to think that things will be different this year. Notre Dame's current form is far superior to Michigan State's, and I was very surprised to see Noter Dame as a dog here. FWIW, Willingham's Stanford team smoked Michigan State -- Willingham's alma mater -- 38-0 in a bowl game in '96.
1*
Utah +10.5 - a road dog that can play D is attractive against an offensively challenged traditional power that is 23-42-1 ATS as a favorite of 4 points or more under Carr. Utah is 16-1 ATS as a road dog of 2 or more points. Michigan could be focused to bounce back off loss to ND, so I will play this small.
Troy +17 -- I'm not entirely sold on the Iowa State hype, but regardless -- Troy State is a decent team that played well against an overrated Nebraska team. This looks like a letdown/lookahead spot for ISU, although ISU is 3-0 ATS off a win over Iowa and 7-0 ATS before playing Nebraska under McCarney. A solid letdown angle applies against ISU, but proceed with caution.
Kansas +10.5 -- Strictly an angle play. The same angle that applied in BGSU's favor last Saturday applies against them this week. Kansas is awful, but I'll venture a small wager against a Bowling Green squad that may be a bit overconfident.
UConn -4 -- UConn is improving, and Ohio U misses Coach Grobe. I'll try the Huskies -4.
Good luck to all.
