Early looks for now:
NC State over FSU
FSU is coming off their emotional win against Duke and now have to face a very difficult NC State team on the road.
Arkansas over Miss St.
Same basic reasoning as for the play on NC State. . . Miss State is coming off a huge win in overtime against Kentucky after trailing by 15 at the half. I was on that 2nd half play, but certainly did not expect Miss State to actually win the game. Complete fluke if you ask me. . . they played well, but should suffer an emotional letdown at Arkansas.
Indiana over Michigan State
Michigan State still hasn't proven anything to me on the road.
*Additional factor*
This trend is in regards to the Arkansas and Indiana picks. Take an unranked home favorite over a ranked away underdog. . . if anybody has numbers on this scenerio, I would appreicate knowing the exact percentage over a given time period, but I know it is a good trend to play. . . gotta be close to 70% ATS (or higher).
The reason for these high amount of ATS covers is very simple: Vegas knows more than those who vote in the polls!
Vegas issues a line, the public notices that a ranked team is getting points on the road against an unranked team and feel it has value. They bet the line down to where the real value is to take the home favorite.
Needless to say, I will wait as long as possible for the lines above to come down. Still looking at other plays but would appreciate any thoughts on these games.
NC State over FSU
FSU is coming off their emotional win against Duke and now have to face a very difficult NC State team on the road.
Arkansas over Miss St.
Same basic reasoning as for the play on NC State. . . Miss State is coming off a huge win in overtime against Kentucky after trailing by 15 at the half. I was on that 2nd half play, but certainly did not expect Miss State to actually win the game. Complete fluke if you ask me. . . they played well, but should suffer an emotional letdown at Arkansas.
Indiana over Michigan State
Michigan State still hasn't proven anything to me on the road.
*Additional factor*
This trend is in regards to the Arkansas and Indiana picks. Take an unranked home favorite over a ranked away underdog. . . if anybody has numbers on this scenerio, I would appreicate knowing the exact percentage over a given time period, but I know it is a good trend to play. . . gotta be close to 70% ATS (or higher).
The reason for these high amount of ATS covers is very simple: Vegas knows more than those who vote in the polls!
Needless to say, I will wait as long as possible for the lines above to come down. Still looking at other plays but would appreciate any thoughts on these games.