Plays for Tuesday. . .

Nickelback

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Early looks for now:

NC State over FSU

FSU is coming off their emotional win against Duke and now have to face a very difficult NC State team on the road.

Arkansas over Miss St.

Same basic reasoning as for the play on NC State. . . Miss State is coming off a huge win in overtime against Kentucky after trailing by 15 at the half. I was on that 2nd half play, but certainly did not expect Miss State to actually win the game. Complete fluke if you ask me. . . they played well, but should suffer an emotional letdown at Arkansas.

Indiana over Michigan State

Michigan State still hasn't proven anything to me on the road.

*Additional factor*

This trend is in regards to the Arkansas and Indiana picks. Take an unranked home favorite over a ranked away underdog. . . if anybody has numbers on this scenerio, I would appreicate knowing the exact percentage over a given time period, but I know it is a good trend to play. . . gotta be close to 70% ATS (or higher).

The reason for these high amount of ATS covers is very simple: Vegas knows more than those who vote in the polls! ;) Vegas issues a line, the public notices that a ranked team is getting points on the road against an unranked team and feel it has value. They bet the line down to where the real value is to take the home favorite.

Needless to say, I will wait as long as possible for the lines above to come down. Still looking at other plays but would appreciate any thoughts on these games.
 

Nickelback

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Have a few final plays set in stone:

NC State laying 8.5

Pitt laying 2.5

4 team ML parlay:

NC State
Arkansas
Indiana
Virginia


Still looking into Miami. . . not sure that I will play it as big as Mistake Finder or Ray because St. Johns has won all six games at home ATS and straight up. . . two of those games they were home dogs. With that being said, Miami is still the better team on paper and one would expect them to rebound after their loss to UConn.
 
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Daydreaming

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I appreciate the thought and analysis into your games. Good stuff, although I think Michigan St cover and wins. Anyways good thoughts!

GOOD LUCK OR SKILLS
 

KsYaS

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Mich St??

Mich St??

I think Mich St can't do anything good when they'are out of home
 

Nickelback

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Decided to take out Michigan State and replace it with Pitt laying 2.5. I still believe Indiana wins the game against Michigan State and will keep them on my money line parlay.
 

Nickelback

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Daydreaming,

Not sure that they pound Rutgers, but I think Pitt gets the win and laying 2.5 is very reasonable IMO. I see this game turning into a defensive battle and low scoring affair. Both are horrible free throw shooting teams as neither is averaging sixty percent!

Red,

Good luck to you as well. . . still can't get over the game last night!
 

Nickelback

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Adding a small play on Bowling Green. . .

No question in my mind that BG is the better shooting and defensive team. . .however, they will have to outrebound Northern Illinois in order to cover this number IMO.

I think they get it done, but not willing to risk too much on it!
 

Nickelback

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Pretty good night overall. . . 3 out of 4 sides but lost the small ML parlay. Should have played Indiana and Arkansas as I posted above, but its easy to say that after the fact!

Let's get them again tomorrow night
 
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