Please explain!!!

[Bill]

Often I find situations like today. Book "A" has team "X" at -118 and "Y" at +110. Book "B" has team "X" at -135 and "Y" at +120.

It seem to me that if I bet 590 on team "X" to win 500 at book "A" and then bet 500 on team "Y" to win 600, the worst I could do is win 10.

I know it is not a huge win but it would add up over time.

What don't I understand?:shrug:

Thanks,
Bill

 

[MadJack]

you understand perfectly. it's called scalping. that's why you should have multiple outs when betting serious money on sports.

good luck!

jack@madjacksports.com

 

[redking]

Isn't the worst case you win nothing?

Wagers:

At Book A = Team X 590/500

At Book B = Team Y 500/600

Possible Outcomes:

Team X wins. You gain 500 (won at A) - 500 (lost at B) = 0 (net)

Team Y wins. You gain 600 (won at B) - 590 (lost at A) = 10 (net)



So best case = $10 profit with no risk and worst case is $0 profit with no risk. That's if you use reputable books, not taking into account deposit/withdraw fees!

 

[Mr Hockey]

Isn't the worst case you win nothing?

Wagers:

At Book A = Team X 590/500

At Book B = Team Y 500/600

Possible Outcomes:

Team X wins. You gain 500 (won at A) - 500 (lost at B) = 0 (net)

Team Y wins. You gain 600 (won at B) - 590 (lost at A) = 10 (net)



So best case = $10 profit with no risk and worst case is $0 profit with no risk. That's if you use reputable books, not taking into account deposit/withdraw fees!

No, you bet certain amounts that obviously vary on each side & assure yourself something regardless of outcome. I look to scalp before I play everyday. The only drawback is sometimes you have to deal with alot of lesser known books.

 

[redking]

Thanks!

Thanks!

Thanks Mr. Hockey for the quick reply.

If you don't mind, can you let me know the books that you've scalped at? If you don't feel confortable posting them here, feel free to email me at:

redkingRANGERS@myrealbox

just delete the non-playoff team and add .com before you email!

 

[royalfan]

That is a major method of my livihood. Takes a lot of time but scalping or "arbitrage" as I define it is all over the place with 20 or so different outs. Cannot list them all here as about 5 of them are not sponsors. I really enjoy looking for these opportunities. The more rare the sport the more the lines vary. Middling is also along these lines. My goal is always to make enough in arbitrages to cover my losses on middles and therefore make my middle wins gravy.

 

[BuzzMan]

Bill,
I am sure you can find these scalping situations ocassionally if you have enough books and like to spend lots of time looking up lines trying to make a few dollars. I think its a lot of work. I only tried it once and got burned. I saw my two sportsbooks had significantly different lines on a game and figured I could make $10 easy. As I recall, it was a baseball game and I could get both teams at +102 at the different books. So I bet $500 on the first team and then went to wager $500 on the other team and got a message that the line had changed and they were now at -105 (minus 105). So if I bet it I would be locking in a guarantted loss. I let my first wager ride and lost the whole $500.

If you do this just be sure your web pages are refreshed and bet immediately when you see the scalp because it probably won't last long before someone else bets it and the book will then adjust the line eventually.

 

[THE HITMAN]

I have found that there are several steps that you can take to help lessen the chance of getting "burned" in these situations:
If you are going to lay, say, $1000, lay it in increments of $200 five times instead of the whole 1k at once. If there is the line change that you dread, it will come somewhere in between, not jeopardizing the whole $1000. Also, if you do have a preference in the game, bet on with that team first, then the other.one ............so if you do have to stop in the middle and have one extra play in without the other, at least it will be on the team of your choice.
And, if you have an extra phone line or cell handy, you can almost do both books at one time, one online & one in your hand, virtually eliminating the chance of the line change against you.
Just a couple of thoughts..............GL & Hit Em Big, THE HITMAN

**PS there was a decent play yesterday as I saw Hou Over 9 at +117 and the U at +103, both at books listed up top.......anyone else catch it ??

 

[BuzzMan]

Hitman,
Thanks for the good ideas to reduce the chance of getting caught on the line change. Do you find these scalp situations very often? I would think it would be very rare to find a scalp with a 20 cent difference in the lines like the one you found but I never tried to find scalps so I don't know how often they happen. I always thought to make any money scalping that someoone would have to spend many hours each day just looking for a few games to make a few dollars but maybe it is easier than I thought. I still doubt I would have the patience to look for scalps but I am curious about how often they happen.

 

[THE HITMAN]

Buzz...........I don't really go looking, per se. Once in awhile something will show up.........it sorta jumps out at you, if you know what I mean. It is a lotta work for a few $. The really nice ones are far & few between. I play, maybe 3 to 5 per year. If I have the funds available both ways, I give it a try every now & then, but never go out of my way to find such. I have a local book who is verry erratic with lines, and it is easier to catch a big jump with him than find both online. And, that way, you don't need the $$ up front as you would online. I find that it is easier to middle him than both online, also. ( I middle , perhaps 20 times per year, usually in football. If you hit one of those, I come out even............... anything more than that is gravy. Last year I remember hitting 3.) If it is inconvenient ( maybe necessitating a deposit or withdrawal) I pass on it. The +117 & + 103 that I mentioned above didnt' get a play from me as I was a bit low on funds in one account. To make it really worthwhile, you need to bet alot to get a worthwhile return, I would think at least $1000. I don't keep that much extra available in all my accounts anymore, just a couple.............not since the couple of book "el foldos" of last year. GL THE HITMAN

 

[THE HITMAN]

A small one...6:30 tonitee has Dall/Edm O 5 at +132. I see some U 's out there at between -125 & 130 .

 

[ferdville]

Hitman - excellent advice on wagering to avoid a sudden line change. It can still happen, but you aren't fully exposed. Love your idea of using two phones at same time. Easy enough to have a partner - though he better be good at reading your script -no place for errors here!

 

[Mr Hockey]

Hitman,
Thanks for the good ideas to reduce the chance of getting caught on the line change. Do you find these scalp situations very often? I would think it would be very rare to find a scalp with a 20 cent difference in the lines like the one you found but I never tried to find scalps so I don't know how often they happen. I always thought to make any money scalping that someoone would have to spend many hours each day just looking for a few games to make a few dollars but maybe it is easier than I thought. I still doubt I would have the patience to look for scalps but I am curious about how often they happen.

Patience is the most important thing when it comes to scalping. It is never as easy as it might seem with them being right there waiting. You usually have to do some searching, have multiple outs of course & be fast as it can be there one minute & gone the next. It isn't for everyone as sometimes you just won't find much & a big thing is you usually have to trust some cash to some lesser known books which isn't a feeling alot of people want to deal with considering the small profit made dealing with small betting amounts but of course the more you put into it the more you get back.

Since we have so many clone books nowadays it can be a real pain in the ass to get some scalps going as the glorious days of it are behind us for sure.

Another thing is sometimes scalpers will take an early lead anticipating which way a line will move but since you are anticipating it obviously comes with no guarantee you will get your desired movement.