Please Read: The Service Fading Project

[GreyStreet]

Inspired by discussion started by arrow regarding bad services, I suggest that we all come up with a service we know is absolutely horrible. Based on what I've read, buying mid-season NBA and NCAA basketball packages would be best. Then, we just take the picks and fade pretty much all of them unless the fine cappers here at MadJack's determine that certain picks are actually worth playing for the win. I'd be interested to see what people think, I say we give it a shot, it would be fun at the very least, and I think VERY profitable.

Grey

(will be posting this in the General and Free Throws NCAA Forums also)

 

[themadmax]

sounds interesting. maybe you could get the ball rolling and everyone chime in when they have some info. i'll start by posting some services i have records on, that usually lose there free picks, and we can go the other way. i will not post the names of the services unless that's alright to do here. i hope i can have some info by monday. i'm 1 or 2 picks away from a solid night, it's hard to turn a profit because i bet nba, cbb, and nhl everyday, 3 to 4 picks in each. :shrug: GS, good idea and it's nice to meet you.

 

[mack the knife]

fading is not that easy.

you have to be really bad, really consistently, to fade.

for example, say a capper goes a "pathetic" 47% over 500 plays at -110 vig: 235-265 is the record. This capper is down 30 units on plays and another -26.5 on the vig = -56.5 units! Horrible!

But fading produces this: 265-235 or 53%, or + 30 units -23.5 (vig) = + 6.5 units. 6.5 units for 500 plays....

not manny people stay around for long posting when they lose 56.5 units....so you might not be able to continue playing against their picks--they vanish.

Besides, most services are 50%, which is losing money, but not fadable. You need to find someone that is 45% or worse, minimum, to make this worthwhile....

 

[themadmax]

mack, you're right it's hard but maybe we could post the ones that are cold, like i posted a pick in the college forum, the service is 0-5 on their comp plays this week. they have Ga T +4.5 and from what i see alot of cappers like NC. just any picks or info that can maybe help give us some better insight or something to help each other to find 1 or 2 extra picks a day. i'll keep and post the record if GS wants me to. i don't think it could hurt if we can get a few people that have the extra time for this. i also think we should use 1 place for the picks. maxy

 

[mack the knife]

maybe it can hurt. Why would you think someone is "cold" when they are on a 0-4 run? Predicting when a person will win or lose is nearly impossible outside of knowing their long-term record. Losing 4 in a row happens to winning cappers all the time.

good luck, but as someone who has studied this and been wagering successfully for almost 10 years now, its just not that simple. For fun, sure; but don't take it too seriously.

 

[GreyStreet]

Mack,
I agree with what you have said, but remember, we will also be throwing out picks that we think might have some value. I think it would be worthwhile to at least follow through with for a season, just to see how it works out. A lot of services used by guys on this forum are down for hundreds of units already... that takes some real skill. In other words, I think services just throw out picks and hope they win. Their business is not happy repeat customers, but fresh suckers who don't know what they are getting into.

Grey

 

[infinii]

So basically, your intention is to monitor some crappy services, take their free picks handicap those games and throw out the ones that you may agree with and fade the rest.

Why not just handicap the games and play based off your analysis then? Just as much time involved. And at least you won't be playing the huge public plays that typically have very sharp lines.

If a service is so bad that it's worth your while to fade, it's inevitable that they pack up, change names and start over again. IMO, they won't stink long enough for you to make much money.

Unless it's Hondo of the NY Post. His baseball picks for the past 3yrs have sucked regularly. I can't believe he still has a column.

 

[themadmax]

fade #3 fade #2 in CBB forum last post 1-0

fade #3 fade #2 in CBB forum last post 1-0

hey guys i found another service that was 2-5 last week. here's their pick for today ORLANDO -1, if you fade take PHIL +1. GL2A! i posted college play #2 in cbb forum. maxy

 

[runks44]

HEY GREY,i'm game for anything,but i don't like the idea of throwing out picks,i've always wanted to buy a service and bet against every pick.If you start trying to say you like certain picks,you might as well just cap the games.I say ,pick the worst service we can find and bet against every game.Or just for the fun of it ,get certain guys free picks and bet against them just for kicks.

 

[themadmax]

NBA FADES 1-0 & CBB FADES 1-1

NBA FADES 1-0 & CBB FADES 1-1

I will be following services that are having bad runs and i play their comp plays, along with the plays i cap.i'm just trying this at 1/2* and i don't just do it blindy. the service i used was 2-5 last week, now they're 0-1 to start this week. back later with todays pick. maxy

 

[GreyStreet]

sounds good max, i will be following the plays also and will probably bet them small as well. should be fun! best of luck,

Grey

 

[themadmax]

FADE #4 YTD 2-1

FADE #4 YTD 2-1

Hey GS, the service has E ILL. My local does not use the added games, so i will post another service to, this one is 2-6 l8. I think i'll just use this forum because there will be more NBA. GL maxy

 

[themadmax]

FADES

FADES

Hey GS, i found 2 services that are 1-6 L7 they both have KY -1 and 1 thats 0-6 they have MIA +13.5 GL! maxy

 

[pappy77]

hey guys my service was 1-1 last night, Play theese games tonight my service has the other side!!

MISS
BUCKS
SONICS

 

[lowell]

nobody beats me ten days in a row or do they

nobody beats me ten days in a row or do they

boston celtics and over,under san ant,under houston,in college iona and western carolina.i am playing these.fade material

 

[themadmax]

RECAP OF FADES

RECAP OF FADES

Hey GS,did you get on se missouri? i only took Miss st +1.5, so i got the win instead of the push, nice comeback. I passed on the Mia play. i'll count Ky as a push, and mia covered. service #1 2-7 L9...service #2 1-6-1 L8....service #3 0-6-1 L7 i will use these 3 only. Fade record stands at 3-2-2. My record is 3-1. i'll be back when i can get some picks, GL! maxy

 

[lowell]

sevice plays kent 5 units ohio 5 unit-hellah likes them too.marquette 6 units

 

[pappy77]

Last night 2-1 since monday 3-2! Tonight play theese.


Miami Ohio
Buffalo

 

[lowell]

pappy

pappy

are you playing plays or fading.all 3 action plays in college lost last night.when was last winning night.

 

[themadmax]

TODAYS FADES YTD 3-2-2

TODAYS FADES YTD 3-2-2

Hey guys here goes. service #1 2-7 L9 they have MARYLAND -2....#2 1-6-1 L8 N.CAR +2.5.....#3 0-6-1 L7 ST JOHNS -2....I'm on Maryland and maybe MIA. good luck. maxy Remember play the opposite of what's up.