Part III
Part III
The Game Of The Year
I did not have $300 to send and had a bad feeling about the GOY as I actually have rarely ever won any money with this Capper. YTD way down.
So I asked for the plays and said we would work something out if it was a BIG NIGHT :
THE SUNDAY NIGHT RESPONSE.
I am only doing this because I consider you a friend
and want you to get on the play and I gave you some
bad selections in the NFL. Nonetheless I am keeping
you to your word and expect prompt payment when this
wins and since you did not pay up front, you are not
eligible for any guaruntee.
Looking to make some profit on what actually should be
a very entertaining game.
One Unit Selection:
None
Two unit Selection:
Over f/h
Three Unit Selection:
Over 36
Four Unit Selection:
Browns ?6
Browns ?3-115 f/h
The Ravens were a much different team last year and
they suffered a Monday Night hangover as they won
against Tennessee and then followed that up with a
loss the very next week to the Browns. I look for the
same sort of response tonight.
The Monday night game was a very impressive won that
was fueled by the Raven defense and special teams.
Quarterback Chris Redmen did not impress me as most
of his TD passes were jump balls that were caught by
his Tight End. In the past Butch Davis has thrown
multiple defensive looks at the Ravens that have
caused fits for the opposing Quarterback and it should
be no different tonight.
Also look for the Browns to unveil a high powered four
wide offense tonight. Well, it will not be the first
time they have done this but I look for them to do
tonight more than usual.
When the Browns employ their four-receiver offense,
they move the ball. Spreading out their top four
receivers does two things. One, it brings two
defensive backs onto the field that make the Ravens
more vulnerable ? 32-year-old cornerback James Trapp
and rookie safety Chad Williams. Two, it gets Dennis
Northcutt into the offense. The Browns have waited
three years for Northcutt to make plays. Now that he's
making them, they should keep getting him the ball.
The Browns also know that this is a chance for them to
shine under the Sunday night spotlight and allow them
to make up for performances in the past that were less
than spectacular.
We know the whole world will be watching this game,"
Fuller said. "This is definitley a chance for us to
send a message to the rest of the NFL." "We're a
football team looking for respect," Browns coach Butch
Davis said. "This is an opportunity and maybe a
precursor to play in a Monday night game. And for guys
with Pro Bowl aspirations, these are games that
everybody in the country can take a look at."
"I know that within the industry, one of the things
about playing on Monday Night Football is you know
your peers are going to be watching. It's true on
Sunday, as well.
"Most guys are going to go home, turn on the TV and
see what happened during the day and catch at least
the first half of that Sunday night game. It means a
little something more any time you get the national
exposure."
The Browns have been craving the country's attention
since that painful night on Sept. 12, 1999, when the
Steelers forced fumbles -- and home viewers to channel
surf.
"To get a chance to play on national TV is big for
this team," Couch said. "This is definitely a great
game for TV, too. The Baltimore-Cleveland game with
the history these two teams have.
"With Baltimore being the old Browns, and all that.
It's a big rivalry, a division game and there's a lot
riding on it for us."
The Browns defense will stop the ground game forcing
the Ravens to go to the air which will lead to
turnovers and scores for the Browns.
Cleveland Trends:
Play Against - Road underdogs (BALTIMORE) - off a huge
double digit upset win as an underdog of 6 more.
(22-10 ATS) (68.8%, +11 units. Rating = 0*)
Play Against - Road underdogs of 7 points or less
(BALTIMORE) - off an upset win by 10 points or more as
an underdog. (49-27 ATS) (64.5%, +19.3 units. Rating =
2*)
Play Against - Road underdogs (BALTIMORE) - off an
upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog. (65-39
ATS) (62.5%, +22.1 units. Rating = 2*)
Play Against - Road underdogs (BALTIMORE) - off an
upset win by 10 or more as a home underdog. (42-23
ATS) (64.6%, +16.7 units. Rating = 1*)
Play Against - Road underdogs of 7 points or less
(BALTIMORE) - off an upset win by 10 or more as a home
underdog. (31-16 ATS) (66%, +13.4 units. Rating = 1*)
CLEVELAND is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when they rush for
75 to 100 yards over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 20.6, OPPONENT 18.7
And the Over:
CLEVELAND is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) after allowing 99
or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was CLEVELAND 18.8, OPPONENT 22.0 -
(Rating = 1*)
CLEVELAND is 5-1 OVER (+3.9 Units) off a close loss by
7 points or less to a division rival since 1992. The
average score was CLEVELAND 12.8, OPPONENT 26.3 -
(Rating = 0*)
CLEVELAND is 16-5 OVER (+10.5 Units) off a division
game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was
CLEVELAND 16.5, OPPONENT 24.9 - (Rating = 1*)
CLEVELAND is 5-1 OVER (+3.9 Units) off a road loss
against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. The
average score was CLEVELAND 16.2, OPPONENT 32.2 -
(Rating = 0*)
CLEVELAND is 5-1 OVER (+3.9 Units) off an extremely
close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival
since 1992. The average score was CLEVELAND 12.8,
OPPONENT 26.3 - (Rating = 0*)
Browns in the first half:
There are 3 situations with a total rating of 4 stars.
Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 points or less
vs. the 1rst half line (BALTIMORE) - after playing on
Monday night football. (36-19 ATS) (65.5%, +15.1
units. Rating = 1*)
Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 points or less
vs. the 1rst half line (BALTIMORE) - off an upset win
by 10 or more as a home underdog. (34-16 ATS) (68%,
+16.4 units. Rating = 1*)
Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line
(BALTIMORE) - off an upset win by 10 or more as a home
underdog. (46-22 ATS) (67.6%, +21.8 units. Rating =
2*)
Potential StatFox Power Trends based on estimated
statistics favoring CLEVELAND to cover the first half
line
BALTIMORE is 1-7 against the 1rst half line (-6.7
Units) in road games when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards
per attempt since 1992.The average score was BALTIMORE
9.3, OPPONENT 10.5
CLEVELAND is 18-7 against the 1rst half line (+10.3
Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers since
1992.The average score was CLEVELAND 10.3, OPPONENT
10.4
CLEVELAND is 5-1 against the 1rst half line (+3.9
Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3
seasons.The average score was CLEVELAND 9.8, OPPONENT
6.8
CLEVELAND is 6-1 against the 1rst half line (+4.9
Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 net passing
yards/attempt since 1992.The average score was
CLEVELAND 12.0, OPPONENT 4.1
CLEVELAND is 9-2 against the 1rst half line (+6.8
Units) when they rush for 75 to 100 yards over the
last 3 seasons.The average score was CLEVELAND 11.8,
OPPONENT 9.3
BALTIMORE is 1-5 against the 1rst half line (-4.5
Units) in road games after allowing 300 or more
passing yards in their last game since 1992. The
average score was BALTIMORE 4.3, OPPONENT 13.8 -
(Rating = 0*)
BALTIMORE is 5-14 against the 1rst half line (-10.4
Units) in road games off a home win since 1992. The
average score was BALTIMORE 6.5, OPPONENT 10.0 -
(Rating = 0*)
CLEVELAND is 6-1 against the 1rst half line (+4.9
Units) in home games after a loss by 3 or less points
since 1992. The average score was CLEVELAND 11.6,
OPPONENT 6.7 - (Rating = 0*)
CLEVELAND is 5-1 against the 1rst half line (+3.9
Units) after a loss by 6 or less points over the last
3 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 12.3,
OPPONENT 7.7 - (Rating = 0*)
CLEVELAND is 7-1 against the 1rst half line (+5.9
Units) in home games after being outgained by opp by
100 or more total yards last game over the last 3
seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 10.1,
OPPONENT 7.5 - (Rating = 0*)
CLEVELAND is 14-5 against the 1rst half line (+8.5
Units) in the first half of the season over the last 3
seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 9.1, OPPONENT
9.3 - (Rating = 0*)
CLEVELAND is 6-1 against the 1rst half line (+4.9
Units) in home games off a cover where the team lost
as an underdog since 1992. The average score was
CLEVELAND 9.3, OPPONENT 10.0 - (Rating = 0*)
Predicted Final Scores:
Halftime: Browns 17 Ravens 6
Final: Browns 30 Ravens 12
YOU DO THE MATH -7 UNITS/-$700.
