Plus 40 or more dogs.

[djv]

I was asked a day or two ago and forgot to do this. ? How do 40 + dogs do. Answer last two years 16 and 5. Unless my material is wrong that is answer.
This year 2 & 1 todate?
This week Duke + 45.
Just passing on info not suggesting a play.

 

[JEFF]

I don't think this is a "trend" I would go by without really taking a look at the matchup. Sure a lot of big faves don't cover, but there pretty much always capable.

I like FSU here, but may not play them b/c its such a big #. Probably will though - Bowden made MD look like a JV squad, and this is at home versus a far less talented team. And don't forget, last week that old fart was trying to run up the score til the final moments, running the shotgun and passing.

 

[NJO]

I don't follow this logic -- "Sure a lot of big faves don't cover, but there pretty much always capable" -- isn't that the whole point of taking these huge ugly dogs, recognizing that the big faves may be capable but the numbers are just too big for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th stringers from these big faves to overcome?

 

[djv]

NJO that seems to be tha case at this time. Can it all change tomorrow maybe?

 

[JEFF]

I don't follow this logic -- "Sure a lot of big faves don't cover, but there pretty much always capable" -- isn't that the whole point of taking these huge ugly dogs, recognizing that the big faves may be capable but the numbers are just too big for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th stringers from these big faves to overcome?

Yes that would be the point of taking the 40-plus dog. But if it was simple as you make it sound - that 2nd, 3rd, and 4th stringers can't push their team past the number _ then 40 point dogs would be an automatic play and we'd all be winning on them every week.

I have no idea what the numbers are but I bet there's no significant advantage if you took all the 40 point dogs during a season. I agree there's value in them sometimes, but it specific to each situation. No way I would bet against FSU covering 45 -- their scrubs are stillmore talented than Duke's starters. That said, I'm not gonna give the huge points either. Just my opinion.

 

[NJO]

I understand staying away from these games, but your first comment "that a lot of big faves don't cover" seems to imply that it's a winning proposition to play those big ugly dogs.

I don't know if it is or not, but the logic that "big faves don't cover" followed by "I wouldn't bet on big dogs" seemed at odds with each other.

 

[djv]

Jeff there is a significant advantage if you played against all 40 or more fav's last two years. The number is above 16 & 5 did not cover. I did not look back any father.

 

[mw]

I understand staying away from these games, but your first comment "that a lot of big faves don't cover" seems to imply that it's a winning proposition to play those big ugly dogs.

Well, we can't say that it IS a winning proposition to play every dog of 40+, but we can say that it WAS a winning proposition over the past 10 years. You have to pick and choose. In 2000, my game of the year was K State -46 over Ball State (K State won 76-0). Nebraska in its national championship years (1994, 1995, 1997) covered 40+ regularly (3-0 ATS as -40+), but was 0-2 ATS as -40 or more in 1996. Even Miami last year was 1-2 ATS when favored by 40 or more.

I like Duke here myself for the reasons stated in my picks thread.

 

[JEFF]

DJV - I stand corrected. But I don't understand your numbers, are you saying that only 5 of 16 40-plus point dogs didnt cover?


mw- My thoughts exactly, pick and choose, that's all I'm saying.

NJO - When did I say "I wouldn't bet on big dogs?" I didn't say that ..

I'm not saying there is a hard and fast rule either way. I said I wouldnt take them every week jus cuz they're getting 45.

 

[djv]

Jeff. the dogs covered 16 times and the fav's 5 times. I went back two more years and you have 10 more dogs that coverd and 6 fav's that did. And yes If you watch teams like KA St, And I believe Neb when they had chance to run it up they did. But last 4 years you just take the dog and you would have won 26 times and lost 11. Thats not to bad. Just a bunch of money in your pocket. GL

 

[djv]

Update Duke another +40 winner last week. We have another this week.
Rutgers +40 or +41 depending. Seems like advantage to +40 dogs covering continues.
Will have to pay close attention to this. If +40 stays so strong the line setters will try to be a little clever and throw some +38 and +39 numbers up that should be +40. We should be able to spot that because the +40 will get fewer and fewer.

 

[Skinar]

... if I may

... if I may

There has always been huge value in betting the big dogs in practically any sport and it gets some sunlight from time to time but it never effects the line. Here's why:

The reason those lines are SO high is because the books are in business to make money. The books know that the public will be all over these big favorites. Joe 6-pack wants to bet on FSU -45, sit back and watch the Noles just pound the hell out of whoever. But as you guys have stated, most of the time the scrubs finish those games and the underdog tries valiantly to save face, hence a lot of covers, and Joe 6-pack sits there shaking his head thinking 'these could have covered easily if they had just left the starters in for one more series of downs', and that's what he remembers the next time a game like this comes up. How many casual bettors are going to take a +45 point dog? Therefore the lines at the top end are always skewed up a few extra points so the books can clean up.

This applies to college and pro sports, football and hoops, the only difference is the threshold. I know, for example, that 17 point plus dogs in the NFL are a tremendous value over the long haul. How many people really wanted to lay out some hard earned cash betting against the Rams when they were really hot the past few years?

And I disagree with picking and choosing. Any time you know of an angle that yields anything close to 60% then you should just automatically play it every time, that puts the law of large numbers more firmly in your camp.

And don't worry, you could post this all over the internet, it's in the Gold Sheet, it's in every responsible analysis of sports betting ever published - but that doesn't change the mindset of the average bettor who wants to watch his heavy favorite just pound the hell out of a lesser opponent, so it won't appreciably change the lines.

Just my opinion.

Skinar

 

[bassmaster007]

im with u skinar if i find a trend that is working i will use it till it is not profitable. 4 instense when i play blackjack i will always hit 16 no matter what the 1st time u dont it will be a 5 ride it and keep records 2 know when the trends it not hitting gl

 

[djv]

Rutgers another +40 winner.
Someone told me there have been 5/6 , +50 or over spreads last 5/6 years. I did not take time to look. They to I was told are 75%winners.
Skinar I hope you have played all + 40 or more this year. Money in your pocket.

 

[Valuist]

I ran numbers on this from 1995-2000 and the percentage 40 pt dog covers was around 62%. That number hasn't gotten any worse in either 2001 or this season. With the margin of victory (over 21 pts) being eliminated as a BCS factor, there isn't the motivation to cover these ridiculous numbers.

Actually dogs of 35 pts or more cover around 58%.

 

[CrazyHorse]

UCONN is the only +40 dog in the opening lines for next week. They would seem to be in a good spot with Miami off the BC win and FSU next. I believe they are also 8-0 last 8 as 20+ pt dog.

 

[EARVIN]

Crazyhorse---I have UCONN as 8-1 ats as a dogg of 20 points points or more, including 2 covers this year, at BC and against Georgia Tech. As you might imagine all of the eight covers came with UCONN on the road.

Earvin

 

[djv]

Miami now -44 many places. Could be last -40 or more this year.
I agree with the 35 and up. The incentive is down as to why run it up. but watch out for K St. There coach for what ever reason will ride it up. At least it seem more then other coach last 6 years.

 

[mw]

First, I shouldn't have said "you have to pick and choose" -- you don't, because this is a long-term winning angle (though past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance). What I meant is you can probably do even better if you pick and choose.

The books know that the public will be all over these big favorites. Joe 6-pack wants to bet on FSU -45, sit back and watch the Noles just pound the hell out of whoever. But as you guys have stated, most of the time the scrubs finish those games and the underdog tries valiantly to save face, hence a lot of covers,

But there's more to it than that. When the line's 40+, it affects the way the favorite plays right from the start. It's not that they are necessarily aware of the spread, but they're aware of the reasons for the big spread -- i.e., that the game is a total mismatch. They think it's a game they can win just by showing up.

AND THEY'RE RIGHT! Correct me if I'm wrong, but a 40-point dog has never won straight-up. Back in '85 UTEP (vs. BYU) and some PAC-10 team won as +36, and there have been other upsets in that price range. Since Temple beat VPI as +35.5 in '98, I think there was one even bigger upset, but I don't think it was quite at +40.

 

[THE KOD]

this is good reading material .


thanks

Scott-Atlanta