Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)
Trevor Immelman to win 16/1 e.w. @ Boyle Sports [6 places]
Struggled to find any real value in the odds this week and could have easily passed, but six places and top prices for Immelman and Stricker are enough to tempt me and Oberholser just gets the nod over Ames & Langer (top-10 market). None of these have any real form in Florida, but this is not a typical Florida course now that it is being played in early season when the rough is thick rather than in late October. Stewart Cink has likened it to a U.S. Open-type course and the general consensus is that it is tough. And that should certainly suit Immelman who is stands out as a class player in this field: he ranks 2nd in ball-striking on Tour. He did gain some course experience in October, finishing 44th, and that should help even though the course will play much more to his advantage this time around. His form in Florida is not too impressive, but presumably that is the reason for the inflated odds on a player of this calibre in this weak field. And they are inflated enough to present some value this week.
Steve Stricker to win 40/1 e.w. @ BetInternet [6 places]
It is presumably the same case with Stricker. Before last week, he had missed eleven straight cuts in Florida, so he was certainly not considered last week. But he shot no worse than 70 all week at PGA National and finished just one shot out of the playoff for his second top-5 finish in four strokeplay events this year. That's not a bad ratio and as I'd price him at about 28/1, despite his game being very different to Immelman's, there should be value in his odds this week.
Arron Oberholser to win 50/1 e.w. available generally
If last week's performance is anything to go by, his early season back injury is much better. He shot three rounds under 70 and it was only his 2nd round 73 that left him too much work to catch up to the leaders. He finished 10th for his best finish in Florida, though it is also worth noting that the only time that he has missed the cut in 10 Tour starts in this State was due to a post-rd1 withdrawal (he was inside the cut mark at the time) at the 2005 Bay Hill Invitational. He did play here in 2004, finishing 38th, but the progression of his game is evidenced by his scoring average on this Tour. In that year, he ranked 82nd in scoring average on the PGA Tour; in 2005 he ranked 23rd; last year he ranked 11th; and he had played enough rounds to earn a rank, he would replace Stricker in 3rd place this year. Barring any repetition of his back problems, 50/1 looks a fair price.
Trevor Immelman to win 16/1 e.w. @ Boyle Sports [6 places]
Struggled to find any real value in the odds this week and could have easily passed, but six places and top prices for Immelman and Stricker are enough to tempt me and Oberholser just gets the nod over Ames & Langer (top-10 market). None of these have any real form in Florida, but this is not a typical Florida course now that it is being played in early season when the rough is thick rather than in late October. Stewart Cink has likened it to a U.S. Open-type course and the general consensus is that it is tough. And that should certainly suit Immelman who is stands out as a class player in this field: he ranks 2nd in ball-striking on Tour. He did gain some course experience in October, finishing 44th, and that should help even though the course will play much more to his advantage this time around. His form in Florida is not too impressive, but presumably that is the reason for the inflated odds on a player of this calibre in this weak field. And they are inflated enough to present some value this week.
Steve Stricker to win 40/1 e.w. @ BetInternet [6 places]
It is presumably the same case with Stricker. Before last week, he had missed eleven straight cuts in Florida, so he was certainly not considered last week. But he shot no worse than 70 all week at PGA National and finished just one shot out of the playoff for his second top-5 finish in four strokeplay events this year. That's not a bad ratio and as I'd price him at about 28/1, despite his game being very different to Immelman's, there should be value in his odds this week.
Arron Oberholser to win 50/1 e.w. available generally
If last week's performance is anything to go by, his early season back injury is much better. He shot three rounds under 70 and it was only his 2nd round 73 that left him too much work to catch up to the leaders. He finished 10th for his best finish in Florida, though it is also worth noting that the only time that he has missed the cut in 10 Tour starts in this State was due to a post-rd1 withdrawal (he was inside the cut mark at the time) at the 2005 Bay Hill Invitational. He did play here in 2004, finishing 38th, but the progression of his game is evidenced by his scoring average on this Tour. In that year, he ranked 82nd in scoring average on the PGA Tour; in 2005 he ranked 23rd; last year he ranked 11th; and he had played enough rounds to earn a rank, he would replace Stricker in 3rd place this year. Barring any repetition of his back problems, 50/1 looks a fair price.
