Well it's appears I was the only one to post a vote on the poll so obviously members dont see the value in this market. Anyway, here are my thoughts and plays.
The most debated spreads market on offer given what happened in the last World Cup is the total tournament wides.
In 1999 Sporting set their mark in the high 200s and were steamrollered by buyers, I being one of many. What joy by the end of the competition as the bookmakers worst nightmares were realised as the final make-up was a massive 979, costing Sporting in excess of ?? million.
This time the quotes are set at 770-800 and there's a heated debate raging whether this is a sell or a buy.
Although there are more games this time, the make-up in England was sent spiralling upwards by the ball swinging around a lot and that is unlikely to be the case here.
Another strong piece of evidence is the effect of the toss. Due to being able to knock off the runs quickly and improve run-rates, big teams will virtually always insert minnows if they call correctly.
The effect of that is you get far less overs bowled in the match and the chance of wides is reduced. There's 26 of these big guns v minnows clashes so this really could have a big impact.
On the other side, the minnows if they win the toss usually insert the better team so bowling their full quota of 50 oovers. With in-experience bowlers, the wides can tick up.
In the recent ICC Trophy final stages there were 251 wides from 18 games for an average of 13.94. Times that average by 54 (the number of games in this World Cup) and you get 753. And that's presuming all 54 games are played which is still far from certain.
The VB Series in Australia produced almost identical figures (average of 13.92) so again the final count would be under.
If your thinking of selling total wides, then at the moment your looking good, but the tide starts to turn when taking into account matches played in South Africa. After all this is where the majority of the games are being played.
Across 2002/3, South Africa played 13 one-day games on home soil and they produced 200 wides. The average of 15.38 if multiplied by 54 comes to 830, suggesting a buy!
And what about the very latest evidence?
All the finalists have been playing warm-ups this week and up to the time of writing (Thursday pm) 28 games had been played.
In those 28 matches there were a mighty 486 wides at an average of 17.35. Mutiplying by 54 produces a total of 937 - sweet news for buyers but scary for sellers.
Now, you can argue that these are only warm-up games and the opposition are South African provincial sides but as we've seen they've been too strong for the visitors from Canada and Holland.
And although these games have been a good chance for the bowlers to get into a groove, you could argue that they're more likely to lose their line when under the pressure of tournament conditions.
And what if all the minnows have a Steve Harmison in their ranks? The wides would surely break four figures! Basically, given all the evidence discussed, you can make a decent case for selling or buying.
And that means I'm going to shoulder arms and advise no bet on the spreads, however I will play total wides with Sporting odds who quotr over / under 750.5 wides @ 10/11. The reason I feel is this is the safer option where I only lose 2 points instead of 30 or 40 if I bought or sold for 1/4 point or less.
I will bet 2 pts on OVER 750.5 @ 10/11
The big stakes punters will be looking to take on the minnows at every available opportunity when the World Cup gets under way.
And the gulf in class between the elite and the teams clearly making up the numbers has been shown to brutal effect in the warm-up games.
Holland were hammered by 10 wickets against Western Province while Canada lost by a massive 217-run margin against Northerns.
But despite all that I've found a market where we'll be looking for the minnows to do us a favour. That may sound strange but wait.
IG are quoting the lowest 1st 15 overs total at 24-27 - a figure which seems incredibly small.
It isn't a misprint but in all honestly what is the downside?
Firstly, let's play devil's advocate. In the recent VB Series, the fast-scoring Australians managed to score just 29 off their first 15 overs against England in Adelaide. So if they only just beat the figure, what chance have Namibia or Holland got?
Well, without doubt that 29 was a freakish occurence and probably had something to do with the fact that Australia had already qualified for the final.
And although I've pointed out that Holland and Canada were hammered in their warm-up games it's interesting to note that their scores at the 15-over mark were 45-4 and 54-4.
We would expect that figure to drop against the very best teams but not to a massive extent.
On bouncy pitches with field restrictions in place, there's plenty of chances of nicks for four and add in a few wides, no balls and some scampered singles and anyone not managing to beat 27 should hang their heads in shame.
Admittedly, the upside my not be great either but the mark still looks too low.
BUY over 27 runs in first 15 overs @ 0.5 pt / run
