With Italians accounting for some 17 percent of the voters, a united front could be significant, but Reese said he saw no sign the Italians have rallied behind one candidate.
The editor of America said he thought the Italians would view this conclave as their "last chance" to get the papacy back and resume their domination. The pope appoints the cardinals.
But John-Peter Pham, a Vatican expert who worked at the Holy See from 1992 to 2002, said he was not sure that was the agenda. Still, the Italians "remain a force to be reckoned with," said Pham in a telephone interview from Virginia, where he is a professor at James Madison University.
"I think cardinals would be hesitant to elect a Bishop of Rome who is opposed by the bishops of Italy," Pham added.
Italians might have an advantage in lobbying, since fluency in conversational Latin, once expected of top churchmen, has largely slackened.
When cardinals gather, "if you watch their dining room behavior, they tend to sit in language groups," Pham said. "If there's a common language, it's Italian."