Portugal Masters

[Stanley]

Round 1 play (2pts):

Padraig Harrington to beat Nicolas Colsaerts -111 @ Bet365
Harrington has been working hard with his new coach, Pete Cowen, and it appears to have been reaping dividends - he shot his low round of the year en route to finishing 8th last time out at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship - and there is now more of a focus on his short game in training; this was the area in which he was the best in the world when he won his three Majors. He looks as though he should be a contender to win his first title of the year this week at a course on which he finished 3rd in 2009 in his sole previous visit. Colsaerts may be playing well, but a new, more confident Harrington should be more than a match for him.

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Thomas Aiken(33/1) e.w.
- - Almost always plays real well in bunches, loved his birdie on 18 last week (when it seemed nearly everyone was going the opposite direction) to break out of a logjam for 5th, and I've been expecting something strong from his fine South African pedigree before the book closes on his 2011 campaign.

Peter Hanson(16/1) e.w.
- - Something missing from his season, that for should.

Padraig Harrington(28/1) e.w.
- - We'll see.

Oliver Wilson(80/1) e.w.
- - - - When someone that hasn't won or can't win might be on the cusp of more of the same, and would make for a good story either way, it's very often a case of "Hold me back".

Pablo Martin(175/1) e.w.
- - Measured against the other longshots with circles, lines or marks on my sheet, this works for carrying my cash.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Tom Lewis to beat Tano Goya +125 @ SkyBet
A good back nine today should give Lewis momentum and confidence for tomorrow's round as he looks to continue his run of making the cut in every pro Tour event. Famous for leading the Open Championship after the first round in July, he earned a top-10 finish in his first start as a professional and was in contention in the early rounds of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. He is clearly a player with a great future and will rarely be available at these odds in the future against an opponent such as Goya.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Jaidee tb Kingston +100; Wilson tb Larrazabal +100]

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Christian Nilsson to beat Felipe Aguilar -120 @ Bet365
With no cuts made in his last three starts and cuts missed in the last two years here, it is a surprise that Aguilar lies 2nd after 36 holes. But with it being six months since his last top-10 finish, I can't see him playing as well over the next 36 holes. Nilsson had a top-10 finish last month in the Austrian Open and is in the better form.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Havret tb Lowry -120; Davies tb Lewis -120; Nilsson tb Cabrera-Bello -105; Aiken tb Gagli -111; Havret tb Lawrie Pa +100; Lawrie Pe tb Lewis -110; Quiros tb Larrazabal +100; Horne tb Aguilar +115]

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 play (2pts):

David Lynn to beat George Coetzee +100 @ Bet365

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Donaldson tb Gagli -110; Aiken tb Gagli -110; Bjorn tb Gagli -120]