Post Mortem - CA Championship at Doral

[Scooter777]

AKA "Hindsight Discussion".

Perhaps this should be part of the main "CA Championship at Doral" thread.
But I wanted people to notice this, and figured many people may have abandoned that thread entirely at this point.

I thought it would be helpful (I know it would be for me) if there was discussion post tournament.
In this case, specifically, was there anything we overlooked in not playing Els outright?

I looked at selections on many sites including this one, and didn't see anyone picking Els (nor Schwartzel). I did see about 2 dozen other golfers selected.
For that matter, Stanley gave a number of excellent reasons in his matchups vs Els as to why Els would likely have a letdown in the last 2 rounds.

Els was available at +3500 - +4500 or better for outrights pre-tourney.

Looking at his last events, he was T 67 at Honda Classic, and T10, T5, T12, in the previous 3 strokeplay events.

I don't see anything that stands out in his stats for 2010.

Does anyone have any insight into what perhaps was overlooked?

If anyone has comments about any other players and their finish, either surprisingly high or low, would be interested.

Perhaps this is a topic that's not of much interest to the posters here, but thought I'd give this a try.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

I haven't been focusing on outrights that much but Els had not won in five years in the US I believe. So not even a consideration.

 

[Scooter777]

I haven't been focusing on outrights that much but Els had not won in five years in the US I believe. So not even a consideration.

Even going into day 4 Harrington was 1 behind and was essentially the same odds to win as Els.

 

[Chip Hilton]

Els

Els

Even going into day 4 Harrington was 1 behind and was essentially the same odds to win as Els.

I noticed that same thing and factored it into my final round matchups by playing Harrington over Els @ -125 and even tried Schwartzel over Els @ plus money. Els burned me but I had a decent tournament outside of those plays.

Will be interesting to see how Els follows up this victory.

 

[JimmyTime]

els did win the Honda in 2008 over Luke Donald but i Wouldn't beat myself up over not having him this past week. He had failed to close a tournament many time the past two years. Last fall he choked in China against Phil, the the Dubai tournament with woods where hit the 5 wood into the middle of the lake on 18 losing to tiger. This week no one challenged him besides schwartzel and he couldn't let his protege beat him

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

He did win in 2008. My mistake. I heard an announcer say that, I think. Should have double checked that. Sure seemed accurate though.

 

[Tommyjay]

This post-mortum idea is good. We need to do it every week.

I had no action on Els for anything last week. I felt he was warming up, but I couldn't see myself backing him. Els has been on my permanant fade list for a few years now. His win a couple of years ago was very good for me. I got great odds fading Ernie after the win, and I expect to get great odds now too. Just waiting for him to cool off a little, then jump with both feet on the guy he's matched up against.

I don't have anything against Ernie, I like the guy actually. I feel that he's getting older, past his prime, and his non-golf schedule is too demanding.

 

[DerrickTulips]

My computer has been dead, but Els was confident on his blog leading into the event. He had a past win at Doral.

I like this post mortem, i will be back for bay hill

 

[Scooter777]

Glad people like this thread.

Everybody who's contributed also understood what I was after - it's not a "What a bad beat" or "How unlucky am I" thread, but it's seeing if we can learn something from the results of a tournament which will help us in the future.

Such as, when there's an unexpected winner like Els on Sunday, is there anything which may have been overlooked which could have helped predict this.