PR WTF System

[NJHawgFan]

OK. Like I stated in Scott's Sagarin thread, I started tracking this system in week 3 of the college season.

Using the Statfox power ratings line, I compare it to the Vegas line as soon after the lines come out as possible. Sometimes, I'll do a sanity check on the Stardust opening line web site to see what a line was before a quick move, but usually, just checking the lines on Tuesday has worked well.

If Vegas has a team favored that the power ratings don't agree with (Wrong Team Favored), I used to think that they just screwed up. I must have better numbers than them, right? Well, no.

So, I started looking at it as Vegas begging me to take the other side by making it look so obvious. I would take the favorite in those games. It didn't do so well. So, I started looking for something to shave out the bad plays. I noticed that differences of greater than 8 points were very good plays. The plays less than 8 points were a miserable failure. So, I decided to play favorites over 8 points and dogs otherwise. It is now 20-7-3 on the season.

 

[NJHawgFan]

History of "Standard" Plays

History of "Standard" Plays

9/13 - 9/17 (3-2, 8+ diff 2-0)
Maryland -3
UCLA -6.5, 8 point difference
Miami-OH -6, 8 point difference
Oregon -2.5
Air Force -2.5

9/20 - 9/24 (0-4-1, 8+ diff 0-1)
Wake Forest -2.5
Ohio U -3
Michigan -1.5
UNLV -5
Idaho -3, 8 point difference

9/27 - 10/1 (4-1, 8+ diff 4-1)
Rutgers -1, 8 point difference
Colorado -3.5, 8 point difference
E Michigan -3.5, 8 point difference
Nevada -4, 8 point difference
UTEP -3.5, 8 point difference

10/4 - 10/8 (4-2-1, 8+ diff 3-0-1)
North Texas -2.5
Missouri -6, 8 point difference
Purdue -4.5
Colorado St -4, 8 point difference
Louisiana Tech -5
Houston -1.5, 8 point difference
UCLA -1.5, 8 point difference

10/11 - 10/15 (2-1, 8+ diff 1-0)
UTEP -7, 8 point difference
UAB -3.5
Midd Tenn St -5

10/18 - 10/22 (1-1, 8+ diff no plays)
missouri -3
lsu -6

10/25 - 10/29 (0-1-1, 8+ diff 0-1)
Florida -4 over Georgia
Missouri -5.5 over Kansas, 8 point difference

11/1 - 11/5 (0-1)
Louisiana-Lafayette -4

The overall record is 14-13-3 with all 8+ point differences going 10-3-1.

 

[NJHawgFan]

Then came the "Wrinkle"

Then came the "Wrinkle"

Less than 8 point differences sucked, so I decided that fading them would be the way to go. The plays become:

9/13 - 9/17 (4-1)
W Virginia +3
UCLA -6.5
Miami-OH -6
Fresno St +2.5
Wyoming +2.5

9/20 - 9/24 (3-1-1)
Maryland +2.5
Kent St +3
Wisconsin +1.5
Utah St +5
Idaho -3

9/27 - 10/1 (4-1)
Rutgers -1
Colorado -3.5
E Michigan -3.5
Nevada -4
UTEP -3.5

10/4 - 10/8 (5-1-1)
Troy St +2.5
Missouri -6
Iowa +4.5
Colorado St -4
Hawaii +5
Houston -1.5
UCLA -1.5

10/11 - 10/15 (2-1)
UTEP -7
Marshall +3.5
Fla Atlantic +5

10/18 - 10/22 (1-1)
Nebraska +3
Auburn +6

10/25 - 10/29 (0-1-1)
Florida -4
Missouri -5.5

11/1 - 11/5 (1-0)
N Texas +4

All of a sudden we have a great system that is 20-7-3.

 

[AR182]

nj,

interesting theory....

so what would the plays be for this week ?

good luck.

 

[NJHawgFan]

Plays for 11/8-11/12

Plays for 11/8-11/12

Using the standard system...

@Georgia -3 over Auburn, 8 points off
Colorado -2 over @Iowa St, 3 points off

Adding the "Wrinkle"...

@Georgia -3 over Auburn
@Iowa St +2 over Colorado

Another play that came up was one of Scott's Sagarin plays, Tulane +2 over Rice. The problem is that I checked the opening line according to the Stardust web site, and it looks like their line opened at Tulane -1, disqualifying the play from my system.

NJHawgFan

 

[Ratslla]

Good Day & Good Luck!