Pre-Tourney Thoughts and Thread

[grey beard]

Unlike the tourneys where you've seen teams play against one another all year, the NCAAs are a totally different animal....these early games are all about matchups and recent observation (aka what your eyes are telling you) ...early thoughts are the following

Morgan State + 16 1/2 seems like too many for Oak to cover..you say the great Oak that almost got a no 1 bid..yes..in the later games they looked like a one man team and even their one man didn't seem like he was before he had his concussion...Morgan State beat Md...Md isn't a great team but they beat them legit, in Md...I'd say if Md and Morgan State met 10 times Md would win 7 probably..but my point is that Morgan State beat Md legitimately...Md is about 6-8 points to the negative to the Duke and NCs of the world...so why is Morgan State another 10 or so? I say Morgan State keeps this in the 6-12 range...they are a tough littler scrappy team going against a one man show...Oak may win but this will be tighter than folks think.

Clev State +8 against WF...Clev State a lot like Morg State..here you have the great ACC is why the line is so high...it's possible WF blows them out..but not the way they've been playing for the last two weeks...Clev State could win this outright...they are not bad

West Kent +4 1/4 against Ill....hell WKU beat Louisville this year..that alone tells you something...Illinios is not playing well at all..they have trouble scoring...if they get behind it's over...

What's in common here..three teams I think that are overrated and offstride....and combined with teams that are undervalued..these three stand out to me

 

[grey beard]

Adding Templle +4 1/2 to the mix

Adding Templle +4 1/2 to the mix

This one could be a very close game...Temple I think is the dark horse from the big ten..better than Xavier or Dayton who have easier competion in the first round...haven't seen Ariz State play other than one time and I have to admit, don't have a good guage on the PAC 10...but knowing their coach from the ACC he tends to play a very structure slow down offense...aka Priceton offense...Temple has very talented players who play both sides of the ball..they can score and hold the other team down...Ariz has one brute who will get his points...Temple's X-mas will get his...I see this as a nip and tuick game..give me the 4 1/2 points..

 

[LDB]

GL BUDDY

 

[Truckin']

GL with your Tourney Plays

Are you playing these all for the same amount?

average or big plays?

Thanks

 

[grey beard]

Adding FSU - 2 1/2

Adding FSU - 2 1/2

Normally like to play dogs but this one I'll take a average play on...FSU has more basketball talent than Wisky..Wisky via their coach win games with methodigcal, run the clock down and try to squeeze out a 45-44 win via good shooting..tight zone D and good block out rebounding...i.e,. beat talent with discipline...they've been doing that for years...this is the only strategy that has any chance of working when you don't have as much talent..however, at some point, talent wins out...every year...this year I think it's in the first round...I could see Wisky just frustrating the hell out of FSU...but for how long? the whole game...I don't think so...I could also see that FSU given time to prepare, will just win this wire to wire...2 1/2 points aren't much to give...I see an easier FSU then that...something like 66-55.

The other plays listed I like the Morgan State play a lot...the others about average...something tells me Morgan St puts a scare into Oakie...they could outplay them at 4 of 5 positions..2-15 upsets happen once in a blue moon and this has some slight potential for that

 

[grey beard]

adding Portland St +11

adding Portland St +11

Have to admit, haven't seen Portaland State play....what I've read is they are a perimeter team with lots of 3s being shot...they did beat Gonzaga which is impressive...but my play is more of an anti-Xavier play...seen Xavier several times and they just aren't as good as years past....they still play with a frenzy but it doesn't result in many positive things...they aren't an offensive juggarnaut like they've been in the past...I actually think Temple is a better team from their own conference, a conference that's in a down year..so I'll take an average play on Portland hitting some 3s and the X-men continuing to spin their wheels..an upset here is very possible...but 11 points..that's a lot for an average NCAA tourney team to give to another...

 

[grey beard]

Terps (homer play) and over WWU/Dayton -128

Terps (homer play) and over WWU/Dayton -128

OK, I'm a Terps fan, I admit it....don't know much about Cal other than they are very similiar to Md..not big inside, good guard play, etc.....what I really liked about the Terps the last few weeks is they absolutely played to their potential..winning against NC State Wake and losing a farily tough game against Duke...what I'm saying is they are playing at the very top of their game...everybody knows therr roles, everyone is hitting the shots you'd expect, Hayes the other guard has come up big time...they have a potential NBAer in Vazquez...so to beat them, you have to be better than them...Duke, yes, NC, yes...maybe FL state from the ACC..and any of the real good clubs will beat the Terps..is Cal one of them...don't think so...best team in the pac 10 is Washington I think...and UCLA...if Cal beats the Terps then I'd say the Pac 10 is better than the ACC..both are kind of middle upper part of the league..think the ACC is better..Terps win this by 6 or more

Over WVU/Dayton..I think WVU will come out smokin...they are good team that has talent...just lost that Syracuse game by inches n the tourney..which is OK..they should be primed...they could put up 80...Dayton scores in the 60s and think they get behind and have to launch threes...WVU 81 Dayton 70