Preakness 2011 Unofficial Thread

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hogman14

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Post Positions

Post Positions

No. 1 Astrology
No. 2 Norman Asborjson
No. 3 King Congie
No. 4 Flashpoint
No. 5 Shackleford
No. 6 Sway Away
No. 7 Midnight Interlude
No. 8 Dance City
No. 9 Mucho Macho Man
No. 10 Dialed In
No. 11 Animal Kingdom
No. 12 Isn't He Perfect
No. 13 Concealed Identity
No. 14 Mr. Commons
 

hogman14

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Past winners/Post positions

Past winners/Post positions

Here is a look at Preakness winners since 1990 and their post position:

2010 ? Lookin at Lucky ? 7
2009 ? Rachel Alexandra ? 13
2008 ? Big Brown ? 6
2007 ? Curlin ? 4
2006 ? Bernardini ? 8
2005 ? Afleet Alex ? 12
2004 ? Smarty Jones ? 7
2003 ? Funny Cide ? 9
2002 ? War Emblem ? 8
2001 ? Point Given ? 11
2000 ? Red Bullet ? 4
1999 ? Charismatic ? 6
1998 ? Real Quiet ? 10
1997 ? Silver Charm ? 7
1996 ? Louis Quatorze ? 6
1995 ? Timber Country ? 7
1994 ? Tabasco Cat ? 1
1993 ? Prairie Bayou ? 3
1992 ? Pine Bluff ? 4
1991 ? Hansel ? 4
1990 ? Summer Squall ? 7
 
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hogman14

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Odds (subject to change, will not be updated)

Odds (subject to change, will not be updated)

No. 1 Astrology - 15-1
No. 2 Norman Asborjson - 30-1
No. 3 King Congie - 20-1
No. 4 Flashpoint - 20-1
No. 5 Shackleford - 12-1
No. 6 Sway Away - 15-1
No. 7 Midnight Interlude - 15-1
No. 8 Dance City - 12-1
No. 9 Mucho Macho Man - 6-1
No. 10 Dialed In - 9-2
No. 11 Animal Kingdom - 2-1
No. 12 Isn't He Perfect - 30-1
No. 13 Concealed Identity - 30-1
No. 14 Mr. Commons - 20-1
 

hogman14

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animal-kingdom.jpg

:shrug:
 

hogman14

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Owners/Breeders

Owners/Breeders

Owners: 1 - Stonestreet Stables & George Bolton; 2 - Thomas McClay & Harry Nye; 3 - West Point Thoroughbreds; 4 - Peachtree Stable; 5 - Michael Lauffer & W. D. Cubbedge; 6 - Batman Stable, C. Olsen, G. Wallace, A. Sharp & B., E., and P. Lebherz; 7 - Arnold Zetcher LLC; 8 - Estate of Edward P. Evans; 9 - Reeves Thoroughbred Racing and Dream Team One Racing Stable; 10 - Robert V. LaPenta; 11 - Team Valor International; 12 - Kharag Stables; 13 - Linda S. Gaudet & Morris Bailey; 14 - St. George Farm Racing LLC

Breeders: 1 - Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, LLC; 2 - Thomas G. McClay, Harry C. Nye III &Horseshoe Valley Equine; 3 - Bob Austin; 4 - Silverleaf Farms, Inc.; 5 - Mike Lauffer & Bill Cubbedge; 6 - Billy Tillery & Bob Sliger; 7 - Arnold Zetcher LLC; 8 - Edward P. Evans; 9 - John D Rio & Carole A Rio; 10 - W. S. Farish, Madeleine Pickens &Skara Glen Stables; 11 - Team Valor; 12 - Diamond A Racing Corp.; 13 - Bowman & Higgins Stable &Patricia L. Chapman; 14 - St. George Farm LLC
 
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hogman14

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Jockeys

Jockeys

1. M E Smith
2. J Pimentel
3. R Albarado
4. C H Velasquez
5. J L Castanon
6. G K Gomez
7. M Garcia
8. R A Dominguez
9. R Maragh
10. J R Leparaoux
11. J R Velazquez
12. E S Prado
13. S Russell
14. V Espinoza
 

hogman14

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Trainers

Trainers

1. S M Asmussen
2. C W Grove
3. T Albertrani
4. W W Ward
5. D L Romans
6. J Bonde
7. Bob Baffert
8. T A Pletcher
9. K Ritvo
10. N P Zito
11. H G Motion
12. D Shivmangal
13. E D Gaudet
14. J A Shirreffs
 

terpfan2

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I'm going to post early because I don't want to listen to any TVG or HRTV bullshit and start doubting myself! I've got a clear picture in my head of how this race should play out so I'm posting now and sticking with it.


1) #11 Animal Kingdom Can't accuse me of only liking favorites cause I liked him at 20:1 also! Truthfully though, I think he's the real deal. As long as he doesn't bounce after that career best effort in the Derby I think he repeats again. As I mentioned in another post he's won on different race tracks on different surfaces with different jockeys. Takes a real quality horse to do that.

2) #10 Dialed In Well this horse has about 6 million reasons to win this race! In the Derby the pace was so slow that once he fell far back he had no shot to catch the horses that were up front or the closers making their run from better postions. I don't think that will happen again saturday. The presence of Flashpoint will insure a more honest perhaps fast early pace. That definetly helps a one run closer like Dialed In. Just think Animal Kingdom has more versatility and quickness when it will be needed.

3) #8 Dance City This is my longshot special for the Preakness. In the Arkansas Derby he threw a fit before loading in the gate. Even so he ran a very nice third behind Archarcharch and Nehro. If it weren't for that and the fact that he collided with Sway Away in the stretch he might have even done better. The Ark Derby has proven to be the quality prep race this year. The fourth place finisher in that race Alienation just won the Peter Pan Stakes this saturday at Belmont. The fact that Dominguez rides gives even more credit to his chances. If he remains at 12-1 or better I'll have some WPS money on him as I did Animal Kingdom in the Derby.

4) #9 Mucho Macho Man This horse is a plugger. He doesn't win often but always gives a good account of himself. He was moving nicely at the end of the Derby but then flattened out. The slightly shorter distance of the Preakness can only be of benefit. As I stated in the Derby don't leave him off any of your trifecta or superfecta tickets. Reminds me so much of Musket Man a couple years ago.

5) #6 Sway Away This is the horse I bet in the Arkansas Derby but finished third. Perhaps he is a long sprinter and this race might be out of his range but part of his problem in the Ark Derby was a poor ride by P. Val. The switch to Garret Gomez here is a big improvement and again he comes out of what I think is the key prep race for the triple crown series.

6) #1 Astrology This is kind of a wildcard in this race. Probably got the worst draw in the race (#1pp) but has been a gem of consistency in his career with 2 wins, 3 places and 2 shows in 7 career starts. He has spent part of his career on the bench with various illness so perhaps he his just reaching his potential. Certainly having M. Smith aboard doesn't hurt.



Note I'm leaving Shackleford off my selections this time. I might regret that afterwards but I think the pace scenario here will compromise his chances. He got away with a lead in the Derby after a ridiculously slow 48+ sec half mile. I'm sure that won't happen again saturday. I think several horses led by Flashpoint will gun to the lead. Think Shackleford will not have enough in the tank this time to challenge. Again, many will not agree here but that's just the way I see it!


Good luck,

Terp
 
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azbob

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Thanks for the analysis Terp.

Maybe you could report on the weather and track conditions for today/tomorrow?
 

Striker13

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Will only be playing into the 1 million pick 4 pool using Animal Kingdom, Sway Away, Dance City, Mr. Commons, Mucho Macho Man, and possibly Shackleford. Last year this pick 4 had almost 2 million in the pool.
 
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Jimboski

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My OFFICIAL Preakness Pick :)

My OFFICIAL Preakness Pick :)

edited (don't think we can change the titles)... mj, do ya think you could change the title to Pleakness Plicks... .. please? Thank you.

Thanks for all the work, HM. :00x15

The Introduction (ya know, the Blah, Blah, blah part)

When capping the "just spin the ole Money Wheel" races like the Breeders Cup, Derby, etc. (NOT the Belmont though) - I have to go over the entries/pp-lines THREE times before I can come up with anything. The first time I do some of my "special" (well if not very special, thems were hard earned though) calculations for pace, class, and some basic stuff we all do, the second step I do some mo figurin like jockey/trainer combos and stats, post pos. draws, stuff like that. The third step is just to do some REASONING based on looking at the WHOLE forest and not individual trees.
Well, I knew who the pick would be this time after the FIRST step.

To the point..
No. 8 Dance City is the pick. There is no "bestest bet" in a these kinda races, but there's usually a VALUE play and this one is it methinks.

- found the "local" jockey I was looking for - Dominguez. Not local anymore, but he's won Riding Titles at this track and nobody else in this race knows this track better. Although I've always wondered about that "knowing the track" thingy? Always thought that knowing to pull the left stirrup when the road bears left and yelling "Giddyap" after coming outa the last turn ain't enough. Knowing how to ride/guide a hoss and measure out the horse's efforts on any track IS THE IMPORTANT PART. He knows that part too.

- found the kinda pp lines I was looking for like - excellent early speed to get good position someplace in back of Flashpoint (expected pace setter). And, more importantly, consistant IMPROVEMENT in his conservative prep. races leading up to this race.

- found a very acceptable trainer, Pletcher.

- In a year of NON-champions (we'll get a better idea abut the "Animal" after this race though) - with only two exceptions, those who ran in the Derby already looked a little leg weary finishing up the Derby race. Not having anything taken out of him from the Derby may give him a slight edge vs. the Derby horses. I very much doubt the Dancer will be doing any moon walking as they head toward the finish line.

Cons
- Don't forget that we're talikng very competitve Hoss Wacin here. :0033

- 12-1 odds? That's the only odds I've seen so far (no early betting?). Whatever the case - ya gotta be happy with 6-1.

- Post 8 is spossed to be good. I don't care for it and would really prefer a spot much closer to the rail with this horse. I think luck comes into the equation when you're in the outside half with hungry (for them there GREEN veggies) wolves packed on both sides of ya. and relying on luck ain't a good thang.

The play?
For me, I wind up betting much more with a straight W/Pl/Show@3x play than when I take the exotics route. I'll prob. make this kinda bet, a little on the heavy side, and only a few exactas, only $2 variety.

Exacta hosses
Don't like leaving out hosses like Astrology, King, Shack, Sway (check the odds on this one cause he's got 2 speedsters to his immediate left which give him some room to get closer to the rail into a good spot for the rest of the racel Looks like Gomez does a better job than Valenzuela when it comes to timing his move with this horse and IF he does that perfectly, this one can win it all. Gotta make this one a side bet IF he looks very good and ready to roll in the prerace.).... but I'll take my chances leaving them out.

Gonna play the percentages when finding the exacta hosses. IMO, there are 3 hosses that gots them huge booster rockets that come in handy when they get on the Blvd. of Broken Dreams (er.. that would be the stretch). Nos. 9,10,11.. oh, AND my "Shocker Pick", no. 13, Concealed Identity. Chances are that at least one of them will fire.

Shocker?
Like the Dancer, hims got some speed on both ends and betta believe that I'll have a few bucks ATB on this baby and include him if I play zactas. Could save the day :)

Trifectas/Zuppas?
Well, if ya that kinda bettor - what the hell, throw the SHOCKER in them.

Better yet.. .. play Philly, no 6 horse fields :nono: and ON SUNNY DAYS ONLY!


Wanna see the DANCER in action? Here ya go...

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Enjoy the waces.
 
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Jimboski

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How's that for boosting them Peepers, HM? :)

Thinking it might just be the entertainment they're looking for - NOT THE PICKS. LOL

Get ready, PLENTY MO will be heading this way now. :mj07:
 

Jimboski

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checking them out on the track

checking them out on the track

checking them out on the track...

bets are in :)
sho wish my no. 8 looked a little more interested:mj08:

I'll just edit this to add anything I see.

plenty of time to go.

almost forgot.. the nos. 4 and 6 look even LESS interested.

- thanks, AZ. I was worried bout the no. 6. AND he looks a little better on my second look. Damn, no. 11 looks READY. Worser yet, no. 8 doesn't :(

- Well, nos. 1 and 11 look better than most. My "Shocker" is looking pretty good :)

nos. 2,3,7 - not so good.

That's it. Gonna git me some no. 1 hoss.

gonna keep editing this reply for what I see.

- that no. 11 is starting to look like a bargain at 5-2

- see that no. 1 hoss's head going up and down? That's one of many kinda good things :(
 
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azbob

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I think Dance City catches Midnight at the wire and will wager the following:

Ex Box 6-7-8

Tri Box add 6,7,8 (all positions) add 1 and 9 for show

Alternative is Sway Away as the winner with 1 or 9 to place

Good luck to all.
 
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Hamster

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:00hour congrads HM

Going with 1,5 EX Box.
Tri Box 1, 5, 10, 11.
.

5 $27.20 $10.20 $6.80
11 . $4.20 $3.60
1 . . $8.00
Results: 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | ALL
Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$1.00 Exacta 5-11 $57.40
$1.00 Trifecta 5-11-1 $700.90
$0.10 Superfecta 5-11-1-10 $310.63
$1.00 Super High Five 5-11-1-10-8 $24871.00
$1.00 Double 4/5 $32.60
$0.50 Pick-3 2,3,4,7/3,4/5 3 of 3 $29.10
$0.50 Pick-4 2/2,3,4,7/3,4/5 4 of 4 $135.80
$0.50 Pick-5 5/2/2,3,4,7/3,4/5 5 of 5 $730.65
 
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hogman14

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Thanks Hamster!

Thanks to everyone here At the Track Forum also. The pick wasn't based solely on my own look at the card. Hope some people hopped on board and were able to cash a ticket!

:toast: :toast: :toast:
 
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