My OFFICIAL Preakness Pick
My OFFICIAL Preakness Pick
edited (don't think we can change the titles)... mj, do ya think you could change the title to Pleakness Plicks... .. please? Thank you.
Thanks for all the work, HM. :00x15
The Introduction (ya know, the Blah, Blah, blah part)
When capping the "just spin the ole Money Wheel" races like the Breeders Cup, Derby, etc. (NOT the Belmont though) - I have to go over the entries/pp-lines THREE times before I can come up with anything. The first time I do some of my "special" (well if not very special, thems were hard earned though) calculations for pace, class, and some basic stuff we all do, the second step I do some mo figurin like jockey/trainer combos and stats, post pos. draws, stuff like that. The third step is just to do some REASONING based on looking at the WHOLE forest and not individual trees.
Well, I knew who the pick would be this time after the FIRST step.
To the point..
No. 8 Dance City is the pick. There is no "bestest bet" in a these kinda races, but there's usually a VALUE play and this one is it methinks.
- found the "local" jockey I was looking for - Dominguez. Not local anymore, but he's won Riding Titles at this track and nobody else in this race knows this track better. Although I've always wondered about that "knowing the track" thingy? Always thought that knowing to pull the left stirrup when the road bears left and yelling "Giddyap" after coming outa the last turn ain't enough. Knowing how to ride/guide a hoss and measure out the horse's efforts on any track IS THE IMPORTANT PART. He knows that part too.
- found the kinda pp lines I was looking for like - excellent early speed to get good position someplace in back of Flashpoint (expected pace setter). And, more importantly, consistant IMPROVEMENT in his conservative prep. races leading up to this race.
- found a very acceptable trainer, Pletcher.
- In a year of NON-champions (we'll get a better idea abut the "Animal" after this race though) - with only two exceptions, those who ran in the Derby already looked a little leg weary finishing up the Derby race. Not having anything taken out of him from the Derby may give him a slight edge vs. the Derby horses. I very much doubt the Dancer will be doing any moon walking as they head toward the finish line.
Cons
- Don't forget that we're talikng very competitve Hoss Wacin here. :0033
- 12-1 odds? That's the only odds I've seen so far (no early betting?). Whatever the case - ya gotta be happy with 6-1.
- Post 8 is spossed to be good. I don't care for it and would really prefer a spot much closer to the rail with this horse. I think luck comes into the equation when you're in the outside half with
hungry (for them there GREEN veggies) wolves packed on both sides of ya. and relying on luck ain't a good thang.
The play?
For me, I wind up betting much more with a straight W/Pl/Show@3x play than when I take the exotics route. I'll prob. make this kinda bet, a little on the heavy side, and only a few exactas, only $2 variety.
Exacta hosses
Don't like leaving out hosses like Astrology, King, Shack, Sway (check the odds on this one cause he's got 2 speedsters to his immediate left which give him some room to get closer to the rail into a good spot for the rest of the racel Looks like Gomez does a better job than Valenzuela when it comes to timing his move with this horse and IF he does that
perfectly, this one can win it all. Gotta make this one a side bet IF he looks very good and ready to roll in the prerace.).... but I'll take my chances leaving them out.
Gonna play the percentages when finding the exacta hosses. IMO, there are 3 hosses that gots them huge booster rockets that come in handy when they get on the Blvd. of Broken Dreams (er.. that would be the stretch). Nos. 9,10,11.. oh, AND my
"Shocker Pick", no. 13, Concealed Identity. Chances are that at least one of them will fire.
Shocker?
Like the Dancer, hims got some speed on both ends and betta believe that I'll have a few bucks ATB on this baby and include him if I play zactas. Could save the day
Trifectas/Zuppas?
Well, if ya that kinda bettor - what the hell, throw the SHOCKER in them.
Better yet.. .. play Philly, no 6 horse fields :nono: and ON SUNNY DAYS ONLY!
Wanna see the DANCER in action? Here ya go...
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Enjoy the waces.