Greetings all 
I am back for Year 2 of the Predicted Score vs. Vegas Line thread. Last year, the 3 star games hit for 82%, the 2 stars for 47% and the 1 stars for 54%. Not bad, but plenty of room for improvement. I took off the first week of the season to tweak the numbers a bit. I made a few changes to the way I calculate the star ratings for each game. Details for star rating are listed below. I added a plus rating (+) to games where the majority of the predictions fall on one side of the line - these games deserve special attention. Each week I will post the games that have a star rating, and update as needed.
For the newbies, note that I pull the predictions from http://tbeck.freeshell.org/fb/predncaa.html and the lines from my book. I load all of the predictions into my spreadsheet and calculate the values. I throw out prediction values that are either too far away from the mean or virtually impossible. Then I press a few buttons and ka-pow!
1 star rating (*)
The delta is greater than or equal to 2.85 and less than or equal to 5.85.
Simply put, the average prediction is about 3 to 6 points on one side of the line.
Ex. Line -27.5, Avg Pred -32.72, Delta 5.22
2 star rating (**)
The delta is greater than or equal to 5.85 and the std dev is more than 60% of the delta.
Simply put, the average prediction is at least 6 points on one side of the line, but the predictions are not very reliable.
Ex. Line -16, Avg Pred -22.83, Delta 6.83, Std Dev 5.81
3 star rating (***)
The delta is greater than or equal to 5.85 and the std dev is less than 60% of the delta.
Simply put, the average prediction is at least 6 points on one side of the line, and the predictions are fairly reliable.
Ex. Line 14, Avg Pred 6.50, Delta 8.50, Std Dev 3.22
Plus rating (+)
The standard deviation is less than the delta.
Simply put, at least 68% of the predictions are on one side of the line.
Ex. Line 14, Avg Pred 6.50, Delta 8.50, Std Dev 3.22
Standard Deviation
- http://www.neatideas.com/stdev.htm
Delta
- The difference between the line and the average prediction.
Average Prediction
- The mean of all predictions.
Now, with all that said, here are the numbers with 27 of 39 predictions reporting....
Week 2
I am back for Year 2 of the Predicted Score vs. Vegas Line thread. Last year, the 3 star games hit for 82%, the 2 stars for 47% and the 1 stars for 54%. Not bad, but plenty of room for improvement. I took off the first week of the season to tweak the numbers a bit. I made a few changes to the way I calculate the star ratings for each game. Details for star rating are listed below. I added a plus rating (+) to games where the majority of the predictions fall on one side of the line - these games deserve special attention. Each week I will post the games that have a star rating, and update as needed.
For the newbies, note that I pull the predictions from http://tbeck.freeshell.org/fb/predncaa.html and the lines from my book. I load all of the predictions into my spreadsheet and calculate the values. I throw out prediction values that are either too far away from the mean or virtually impossible. Then I press a few buttons and ka-pow!
1 star rating (*)
The delta is greater than or equal to 2.85 and less than or equal to 5.85.
Simply put, the average prediction is about 3 to 6 points on one side of the line.
Ex. Line -27.5, Avg Pred -32.72, Delta 5.22
2 star rating (**)
The delta is greater than or equal to 5.85 and the std dev is more than 60% of the delta.
Simply put, the average prediction is at least 6 points on one side of the line, but the predictions are not very reliable.
Ex. Line -16, Avg Pred -22.83, Delta 6.83, Std Dev 5.81
3 star rating (***)
The delta is greater than or equal to 5.85 and the std dev is less than 60% of the delta.
Simply put, the average prediction is at least 6 points on one side of the line, and the predictions are fairly reliable.
Ex. Line 14, Avg Pred 6.50, Delta 8.50, Std Dev 3.22
Plus rating (+)
The standard deviation is less than the delta.
Simply put, at least 68% of the predictions are on one side of the line.
Ex. Line 14, Avg Pred 6.50, Delta 8.50, Std Dev 3.22
Standard Deviation
- http://www.neatideas.com/stdev.htm
Delta
- The difference between the line and the average prediction.
Average Prediction
- The mean of all predictions.
Now, with all that said, here are the numbers with 27 of 39 predictions reporting....
Week 2
Code:
Favors Line Avg PredDelta Std Dev Play
Fresno State 8.50 1.49 7.01 6.26 ** +
Iowa -37.00 -41.25 4.25 9.25 *
Wake Forest 8.00 3.14 4.86 7.97 *
Northwestern 8.00 2.30 5.70 6.24 **
Virginia -3.50 -8.29 4.79 10.40 *
Ball State 14.00 8.83 5.17 8.89 *
Marshall 19.00 10.10 8.90 6.66 ** +
Tulsa 38.00 32.61 5.39 6.58 *
Texas Tech -12.50 -15.57 3.07 5.10 *
Maryland 15.00 8.88 6.12 6.32 **
Alabama 7.00 3.96 3.04 5.69 *
USC -21.50 -27.91 6.41 9.75 **
Arizona 12.00 6.68 5.32 6.90 *
San Jose State 13.50 9.53 3.97 7.08 *
Utah State 32.00 25.32 6.68 6.55 ** +
Georgia -29.00 -35.48 6.47 9.08 **
Troy State 24.50 19.65 4.85 9.51 *
North Texas -15.00 -18.12 3.12 5.51 *
<br>
Season W L T %
*** 2 0 0 1.000
** 6 1 0 0.857
* 8 6 0 0.571
+ 8 4 0 0.667
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