Predicted Score vs. Vegas Line - Week 3

[djchad]

Here are the plays so far for Week 3. I'll update again either Thursday or Friday evening.

No 3 star games again, but the GA Tech game is close to a 3 star.


29 of 39 predictions

Favors	          Line	Avg Pred Delta	Std Dev	Play	
California	2.00	-3.10	5.10	5.45	*	
Ball State	31.00	24.96	6.04	8.46	**	
Louisiana Tech	11.00	8.04	2.96	5.60	*	
Northwestern	3.00	0.07	2.93	5.67	*	
Wake Forest	-1.50	-7.47	5.97	7.73	**	
Texas	      -13.00	-17.10	4.10	5.72	*	
Iowa	        -4.00	-7.70	3.70	7.37	*	
Georgia	      -13.50	-17.47	3.97	8.03	*	
Ohio	       19.50	15.68	3.82	5.60	*	
USC	      -21.00	-25.33	4.33	6.63	*	
Eastern Mich    19.50	13.39	6.11	6.07	**	+
Alabama	      -14.00	-19.03	5.03	5.32	*	
Fresno State	29.00	24.19	4.81	6.70	*	
Georgia Tech	24.50	18.06	6.44	4.41	**	+
Tulane	         3.00	-4.75	7.75	6.50	**	+
Penn State	10.00	5.73	4.27	7.13	*	
New Mexico	3.00	-0.46	3.46	6.14	*	
Arizona	       11.50	7.68	3.82	5.93	*	
Boston College	-4.50	-7.89	3.39	3.50	*	
Boise State	-21.00	-25.36	4.36	7.04	*	
LA-Monroe	27.50	23.44	4.06	5.32	*

GLTA

 

[Joe De]

looking forward to a properous year..and you analysis....
Do you have anything on the MTSU/Clemson stats???

 

[ndlarryj]

Awesome stuff chad!

 

[acehistr8]

Thanks a bunch dj, can you post the link again to the page this comes from?

 

[onetrickpony]

NCAA

Don't forget to make a donation, the guy does this on his own time

Paypal

 

[djchad]

Final numbers for the week.

Changes:

- Northwestern and New Mexico dropped - no play
- Marshall, Louisville, Troy State, and Utah State added
- Boston College adds a (+)

Favors	          Line	Avg Pred Delta	Std Dev	Play	
California	2.00	-3.18	5.18	5.38	*	
Marshall	-6.50	-10.80	4.30	6.51	*	
Louisville	3.50	0.31	3.19	5.05	*	
Ball State	31.00	25.20	5.80	8.41	*	
Louisiana Tech	11.50	8.10	3.40	5.52	*	
Wake Forest	0.00	-7.61	7.61	7.63	**	
Texas	      -13.00	-17.00	4.00	5.64	*	
Iowa	        -4.00	-7.82	3.82	7.27	*	
Georgia	      -13.50	-17.49	3.99	7.89	*	
Ohio	       19.50	15.93	3.57	5.66	*	
USC	      -21.00	-25.30	4.30	6.52	*	
Eastern Mich  19.50	13.25	6.25	6.02	**	+
Alabama	      -14.00	-19.24	5.24	5.34	*	
Fresno State	28.50	24.14	4.36	6.59	*	
Georgia Tech	24.50	18.08	6.42	4.34	**	+
Tulane	         3.00	-4.85	7.85	6.41	**	+
Penn State	10.00	5.82	4.18	7.03	*	
Arizona	       11.50	7.84	3.66	5.90	*	
Boston College	-4.50	-7.97	3.47	3.46	*	+
Boise State	-21.50	-25.51	4.01	6.97	*	
Troy State	11.50	8.39	3.11	5.45	*	
LA-Monroe	27.50	23.43	4.07	5.23	*	
Utah State	27.00	23.08	3.92	7.78	*

 

[blowin mud]

Chad why is Ball State a "**"? I thought the criteria was adelta greater than or equal to 5.85. Not being critical just trying to learn. Thanks!

 

[djchad]

Yep, you are right. That was a mistake on my part. I've edited the post above to reflect that Ball State is a *.

 

[K-LINE]

Chad thanks for the work you do keep them coming.

 

[acehistr8]

Thanks for the additional info man, great work. The only thing that confuses me is how you use (-) for the favorite but that page uses the positive number, I looked at the BC game at first and said chit the line changed! Great work though, keep it up!

 

[doubleon11]

Thanks for the great info.......

Thanks for the great info.......

What was the record last year for pre scores vs vegas lines??? esp. 2 * and 3*?? thanks

 

[c20916]

acehistr8,

The site lists the line based on the home team. If the home team is favored it uses a + line, if the visitor is favored it uses a - line.

 

[acehistr8]

c yeah I know thanks, I'm saying its reversed here thats all. Marshall on this chart its -10, on that page its 10. Same info no big deal just took me a minute to catch on

 

[ussrv]

good luck chad

thanx for you work.

 

[jmizeus]

chad good job. but i was wondering have u kept track of the plays ats? wondering what record the stars are hitting thx again,

 

[ussrv]

//www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=108445&highlight=dj+chad

 

[jmizeus]

thx ussrv great stuff

 

[ussrv]

no problem good luck on your plays

 

[onetrickpony]

Barring a huge turnaround by Tulane or Fla St looks like the top rated plays go 3-1.

Yet ANOTHER winning weekend by djchad. Great job.

 

[onetrickpony]

Spoke early...

4-0 after Tulane comeback!!!

Amazing work djchad!