Predicted Score vs. Vegas Line - Week 4

djchad

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Better late than never, eh ;)


Again, no (***) plays this week. Arizona shows up for the third week in a row. Even though they are a (*) play, I would lay off that game.

The system shows a few nice money line plays on Texas Tech, Georgia, Boise State, and Houston. Last week, the system picked Tulane to upset Miss State at home - can Houston do it as well?

I won't be around this weekend to update the numbers, so these are the final for the week.

GLTA


Code:
Favors	         Line	AvgPred	Delta  Std Dev Play	
Wake Forest	-19.00	-24.73	5.73	7.24	*	
Georgia Tech	-4.00	-9.22	5.22	5.67	*	
Florida	        -3.00	-6.44	3.44	9.96	*	
Colorado	19.00	14.87	4.13	5.39	*	
Arizona	        25.50	22.09	3.41	9.43	*	
Texas Tech	7.00	-1.79	8.79	8.19	**	+
Miami Ohio	6.50	3.06	3.44	9.88	*	
Cincinnati	-13.50	-18.82	5.32	5.49	*	
Toledo	        10.00	5.15	4.85	9.27	*	
South Carolina	-14.00	-18.03	4.03	6.52	*	
Northern Ill   14.00	9.19	4.81	8.60	*	
Georgia	        1.00	-3.27	4.27	3.17	*	+
Kansas State  -17.50	-23.49	5.99	7.26	**	
TCU	      -12.50	-18.32	5.82	8.31	*	
Boise State	6.50	-2.39	8.89	6.99	**	+
Iowa	       -8.00	-16.71	8.71	6.97	**	+
Houston	        4.00	-2.10	6.10	7.72	**	
SMU	       24.00	21.05	2.95	7.82	*	
Missouri	-20.50	-24.84	4.34	5.67	*	
Buffalo	       24.00	20.23	3.77	6.31	*	
LA-Lafayette	35.00	31.73	3.27	6.69	*
 

ussrv

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Good luck this week chad. Like all of the plays except for tech. I think the wolf pack rolls. Thanks again for the hard work. ;)
 

ajoytoy

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thx chad for doing this....great info....like ussrv said, hope its wrong bout the TTech/NCSU game!!:shrug: :eek:
 

crimson

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Can some one explain to me how to get anything out of this. LOoks like a good system.
 

buckeye fan

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Iowa.. I was afraid of that.. I know taht i have 6 units on ASU and a lot of other people on the site are on them as well. I was afraid that Iowa would get posted.. ???? what does anyone think about ASU now?
 

pt1gard

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well my 2 cents are

well my 2 cents are

I love Djs deal

however as BGold points out this is about impossible game to cap b/c of coaching philo. and injuries, DJs system tho awesome, is still incapable of sniffing out those variables

im riding asu with many

gl and thanx a ton djchad, hope U didnt think this was a put down b/c I think your system is great and much appreciated

take care
gregg
 

djchad

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Not a put down at all. I'll be the first to admit the system does not take into account all the variables - injuries, weather, etc. Sometimes a little common sense and a hunch will beat out the numbers ;)

crimson - Check out this post
 

jbbg

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pred scores vs vegas lines

pred scores vs vegas lines

djchad-

Read this post, you may find it interesting.

i just activated an account on madjack today. I like to read what people have to say on this forum just to see what people think about the games.

Last year when I read a thread about the pred scores I found them very interesting. This year I have looked into them in much greater detail.

I talked to a guy a couple of weeks ago who based his plays solely on whether the difference is greater than the std deviation. Last year for 7 weeks he picked the top 6 each week. Tracking these picks for 7 weeks, they went 33-8-1.

I caution you in how you make so many * and ** star plays. If you have a difference of say 4 for instance, you call it a * play. You need to pay more attention to the standard deviation. If the std dev of this is 10 or so, this is probably not the best move. Take, for example, the line is 7, pred 11, std dev 10. This means the team will win by somewhere in between 1 and 21. Here, even though most of the range is on one side of the line, there is no real consensus amongst the systems.

Some of the systems that are put together to calculate the average have not so good records. I have started to compose another list of the systems with the best records so far on the year (systems with 70+ wins, for example). I feel like the systems that have bad records are distorting the average and std deviat a little bit. I then took the average and std deviat of these systems, calculated the difference, and went through the same process. Find games with diff>std dev. Compare these to your * and ** plays.

I have tried different ways to manipulate the numbers and find the best picks based on all the numbers rather than just the average of all systems. I feel like this has a good shot at doing some good. I guess we will see this week.

I will post a list of the work I have done.

For all of those who think this sounds like a waste of time: Learn how to use Excel. It is not that difficult.
 

crimson

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crimson reply

crimson reply

If in doubt play the + plays,
they have dominated so far this year...
knock on wood

GL

:D :D :D

-DELLMONT
 

crimson

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crimson reply

crimson reply

If in doubt play the + plays,
they have dominated so far this year...
knock on wood

GL

:D :D :D

-DELLMONT
 

djv

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Excellent work. Always check it out. Dont change my plays but Im happier when they match. :)
 

stagger lee

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Thanks for all your hard work djchad

I'm mainly a numbers guy when it comes to capping and really appreciate your posts.
 

Callsport

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Chad ..will you please email me at [email edit out]
so i can discuss this spreadsheet with you...I think it is awesome


also djjb contact me also
 
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