Predicted Score vs. Vegas Line - Week 5

[djchad]

Here are the plays for Week 5.

My book does not have a line on the UCF/Kent game, but I see -15 is a popular line. If so, the system shows a big play going Kent's way. Not so sure I back that move though.

Favors	       Line    AvgPred	Delta  StdDev	Play

Iowa	      -6.50	-12.27	5.77	13.84	*
Texas Tech     2.00	-2.70	4.70	4.94	*
LSU	     -13.50	-24.73	11.23	10.88	**	+
Purdue	     -10.00	-14.95	4.95	9.54	*
NC State     -18.50	-23.53	5.03	7.64	*
Kent	      15.00	3.69	11.31	8.38	**	+
Louisville   -14.00	-17.44	3.44	9.66	*
Utah	       6.50	1.80	4.70	4.73	*
Stanford      13.50	5.91	7.59	9.07	**
Buffalo	      15.50	11.83	3.67	6.82	*
Eastern Mich  34.00	29.38			*
Toledo	       3.50	-1.68	5.18	4.57	*	+
Kansas	      10.00	6.58	3.42	9.35	*
Tulane	      29.50	23.59	5.91	7.91	**
Wyoming	      23.50	20.56	2.94	7.98	*
San Diego St  10.00	3.75	6.25	11.60	**
Connecticut   21.50	17.08	4.42	8.23	*



Season	W	L	T	%
***	2	0	0	1.000
**	15	8	0	0.652
*	32	30	0	0.516
+	16	6	0	0.727

 

[Joe De]

again we don't have any 3 stars...but have several on here i have played...thx for the info

 

[Callsport]

Thanks ...I wanted you to contact me to tell me a little about this setup on excel. I think this is awesome and I modified this version a little and came out nice like weekend. Keep it up !!

 

[ndlarryj]

awesome stuff chad.. a question, though.. which games have been 3 stars this year? The records listed indicate 2-0, but I can't remember seeing any so far.

Thanks.

 

[Venom boy]

Kent st.

Kent st.

Dj , I often have trouble capping college, but I like number systems. I went to the site and checked it out . it' cool !! I can't find a line higher than -9 . on the Kent game .Does that cancel that game out then ??? great work , so far

Venom Boy

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Thanks again for your work.

HORNS

 

[c20916]

djchad,

more numbers reported, I have iowa as a ***. I know you do something different to your numbers and it might not be a *** but it should be a **

 

[ussrv]

my numbers have iowa as a higher play as well. Good luck this weekend. thanks for the work.

 

[statedogg]

link for these numbers??

link for these numbers??

Last year I had the URL for the website that publishes the predicted scores. I have changed computers and sont have it anymore. Can someone help me out with finding the site again? Thanks

 

[Howie's Hot]

Here ya go Dogg....

How

http://tbeck.freeshell.org/fb/predncaa.html

 

[doubleon11]

Another winning week.......

Another winning week.......

for + plays 2--1 thanks for this info

 

[moleman]

2-1..very nice.

 

[djchad]

Results for Week 5:

Favors	       Line    AvgPred	Delta  StdDev	Play

Wake Forest    7.00	2.96	4.04	7.93	*		W
Ohio State   -20.00   -23.50	3.50	8.06	*		T
Iowa	      -6.50	-12.27	5.77	13.84	*		L
Texas Tech     2.00	-2.70	4.70	4.94	*		W
LSU	     -13.50	-24.73	11.23	10.88	**	+	W
Purdue	     -10.00	-14.95	4.95	9.54	*		W
NC State     -18.50	-23.53	5.03	7.64	*		L
Kent	      8.50	3.69	4.81	8.38	*		W
Louisville   -14.00	-17.44	3.44	9.66	*		L
Utah	       6.50	1.80	4.70	4.73	*		W
Stanford      13.50	5.91	7.59	9.07	**		W
Buffalo	      15.50	11.83	3.67	6.82	*		L
Eastern Mich  34.00	29.38	4.62	8.61	*		W
Toledo	       3.50	-1.68	5.18	4.57	*	+	L
Kansas	      10.00	6.58	3.42	9.35	*		W
Tulane	      29.50	23.59	5.91	7.91	**		L
Wyoming	      23.50	20.56	2.94	7.98	*		W
San Diego St  10.00	3.75	6.25	11.60	**		T
Connecticut   21.50	17.08	4.42	8.23	*		L


Weekly	W	L	T	%
***	0	0	0	-
**	2	1	1	0.667
*	8	6	1	0.571
+	1	1	0	0.500
				
				
				
Season	W	L	T	%
***	2	0	0	1.000
**	17	9	1	0.654
*	40	36	1	0.526
+	17	7	0	0.708

The first two plays listed are games I did not have lines for when I first posted the plays for the week.

The Kent line of 15 that first posted I got from vegasinsider, not my book. So the result is updated with the line I had. That also means the game did not have a (+) rating. Didn't matter anyway since Kent flat out won the game.

I'll be back on Tuesday for Week 6. And this time I will get around to updating on Thursday. Usually on Thursday, a few more services report their predictions, and it can alter a few games.

 

[djchad]

ndlarryj,

The (***) games were both in Week 1.

Fresno State +20.5 over Tennessee
Western Michigan +14 over Michigan State



Callsport,

I grab the prediction numbers from the site listed in this thread, then I do the standard deviation and average margin calculations in Excel. Pretty basic stuff. I don't rely on the calculations from the web page, because I have noticed they are off on more than a few games.

 

[jmizeus]

good job chad, but the (+) plays should be 2-1 not 1-1 toledo,kent and lsu gl next week

 

[Callsport]

Thanks alot.....this will work however I just wanted to know how you find your standard deviation since it differs from the one at the site. I see how you obtained the delta...I just wanted to know hoe to input the formula in the spreadsheet for the deviation result..Thanks.....does this work on NFL ????

 

[Howie's Hot]

JM...check out DJ's message under the updated numbers..he states that Kent turned out not to be a + play...

How:thumb:

 

[Joe De]

dj..when will you post your stats picks?????????????thx joe de

 

[bej0101]

great info..thanks