Predicted Score vs. Vegas Line - Week 6

[djchad]

Here are the early plays for Week 6. I'll update these for sure later this week. Only 20 of the 39 services accounted for, so tread a bit lightly. Still missing a few lines for this week too.

A few ML picks by the system: Penn State, Fresno State, Iowa, San Jose State, San Diego State, and Temple

Fresno State is 3-0 on system plays this year. Iowa has been a system play every week this year (4-1).

Again, no (***) so far, but the Fresno game is pretty damn close.

Favors	         Line  AvgPred	Delta  Std Dev	Play	
Houston	         -2.00	-6.62	4.62	9.39	*	
Rutgers	         24.50	20.20	4.30	6.53	*	
Clemson	          6.50	3.35	3.15	6.30	*	
Penn State	  1.50	-2.60	4.10	5.16	*	
Michigan State	-15.00	-19.70	4.70	7.81	*	
Virginia	 -7.00	-11.75	4.75	8.28	*	
Tennessee	  0.00	-7.12	7.12	8.56	**	
Eastern Mich	 16.00	12.28	3.72	3.67	*	+
Miami Ohio	-19.50	-22.97	3.47	5.68	*	
Memphis	         -9.00	-13.79	4.79	6.85	*	
Fresno State	  6.50	-3.20	9.70	5.21	**	+
Iowa	          3.00	-2.86	5.86	6.17	**	
Florida	        -13.00	-18.81	5.81	7.99	*	
Purdue	        -14.00	-20.77	6.77	6.80	**	
Washington St	-27.50	-31.69	4.19	8.49	*	
Cincinnati	 -7.50	-13.02	5.52	7.61	*	
Northern Ill	-21.50	-27.35	5.85	5.67	*	
UTEP	         11.50	4.61	6.89	7.07	**	
San Diego State	  1.00	-3.92	4.92	5.43	*	
Troy State	 27.50	24.58	2.92	6.54	*	
UL-Lafayette	 36.00	31.12	4.88	6.39	*	
Temple	          4.00	-0.36	4.36	6.24	*	


Season	W	L	T	%
***	2	0	0	1.000
**	17	9	1	0.654
*	41	36	1	0.532
+	17	7	0	0.708

GLTA

 

[Master Capper]

Appreciate the info, thanks!

 

[JEFF]

Man, is there an embargo on *** plays?

Thanks for posting and doing all the work Chad. I know I always take a look.

 

[hellah10]

Man, is there an embargo on *** plays?

Thanks for posting and doing all the work Chad. I know I always take a look.

thats what Iam saying!!!

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Thanks again and GL!

HORNS

 

[ndlarryj]

chad - appreciate the hard work.

are your stats up to date? 3-star game YTD record lists 2-0... though i am fairly certain that none have been 3 stars yet. am i mistaken?

 

[mademan]

the *** star games came in the week prior to him posting this thread.

 

[djchad]

mademan is correct. Both (***) plays were in Week 1, and I didn't post the plays for Week 1. I am starting to wonder if we will see another (***) this year. Maybe during the bowl games. I still think the best plays are the (+) plays. I'll be back in a couple hours to update the numbers.

Oh, and thank you to everyone who checks out my threads. I do this for my own effort, to aid in my weekly capping. So, I hope you all make a few bones off me this season

 

[wcb4]

appreciate the work brotha

 

[djchad]

Final numbers for Week 6. Quite a few line changes and a bunch of new numbers made quite a few changes.

GLTA

Favors		Line   AvgPred	Delta	StdDev	Play		
Houston		-2.00	-6.79	4.79	9.13	*		W
Rutgers		26.50	19.88	6.62	6.11	**	+	
Clemson		7.50	3.26	4.24	5.93	*		
Michigan State	-15.50	-21.05	5.55	8.39	*		
Virginia	-8.00	-11.59	3.59	10.55	*		
Tennessee	1.50	-6.40	7.90	9.09	**		
Eastern Mich	16.00	9.26	6.74	11.69	**		
Miami Ohio	-16.00	-22.89	6.89	5.72	**	+	
Memphis		-9.50	-14.41	4.91	6.13	*		
Fresno State	5.00	-3.08	8.08	5.09	**	+	
Iowa		3.00	-2.28	5.28	5.61	*		
Florida		-12.50	-17.64	5.14	7.54	*		
Washington	-1.00	-4.28	3.28	8.19	*		
Purdue		-14.00	-20.60	6.60	6.45	**	+	
Tulsa		9.50	3.83	5.67	7.87	*		
Northern Ill	-21.50	-27.71	6.21	5.44	**      +		
San Jose State	3.50	-0.01	3.51	4.61	*		
Troy State	27.50	22.93	4.57	9.03	*		
UL-Lafayette	35.00	30.09	4.91	9.26	*		
Temple		3.00	-0.19	3.19	6.63	*		
Arkansas State	-7.00	-11.22	4.22	8.84	*		
Utah State	14.00	10.36	3.64	7.97	*

 

[djv]

Thks again every thing helps. This is better then most like this I ever seen. I have seen differant tries at this last 25 to 30 years. None did this well. I know time will tell it always does. If a pattern is there after 2 to 3 even 4 years. Well then you really get excited. I believe last year had positive results to. And everyone here should take a look at this.

 

[bej0101]

thanks for all the hard work

 

[hornsfan2]

i know i have always looked at these. really appreciate the info. and love to see that some of my stat work may come back and be helpful to me sometime down the road

 

[goldcupsports]

I am a die hard line watcher and this thing gives you some real gems as in Value plays.... But remember do not use this as a crutch use it as a tool.

 

[Callsport]

My numbers are slightly lower than your delta and your avg prediction but all in all you are awesome...I could have really used you on Houston ....how early do u usually post in the week?

 

[yak merchant]

If I can be nosy, I'd like to know how you come up with these numbers, it's scary how many match my computers picks. I'm on atleast 10 of these.

 

[yak merchant]

Never mind, read all of your old posts. Still scary how many of my computer picks are matching. Good luck.

 

[treynolds]

bump

 

[RAZ]

thanks man, nice info , appreciate it

 

[sportsnut13]

thanks for the hard work.