Predicted Score vs. Vegas Line - Week 7

[djchad]

Here are the plays for Week 7. These should be the final numbers for the week, as almost all the predictions are in.

A note from the guy who compiles the predictions:

"I am adding several systems to the predictions this week in both NCAA and NFL. At this point in the season this is likely going to make the estimate of the average a little shakey and the standard deviation a little large. It's always a judgment call about when to start including systems that are based completely on the current season because it takes a while for them to become zoned in. "


This week's numbers are based on 37 prediction services - the most I have used this season. We'll see how well the numbers react to more predictions. It may end up throwing the (**) plays off a bit. Of course, a better way to run the numbers would be to have a weighted system based on the most reliable prediction services, but I really don't have the time for all that crap

Favors		Line	AvgPred	Delta	StdDev	Play	
South Carolina	-7.50	-14.65	7.15	6.24	**	+
Minnesota	0.00	-6.16	6.16	6.09	**	+
Rutgers		18.00	7.21	10.79	12.10	**	
Northwestern	-3.50	-8.45	4.95	7.25	*	
Oklahoma State	2.50	-2.96	5.46	6.88	*	
Syracuse	18.00	14.99	3.01	4.68	*	
Northern Ill	-17.00	-22.87	5.87	5.91	**	
Purdue		-13.00	-16.08	3.08	4.28	*	
Michigan State	-3.50	-14.21	10.71	10.72	**	
Navy		5.00	-4.49	9.49	8.42	**	+
Nebraska	-7.00	-12.51	5.51	6.02	*	
Arkansas	-6.00	-13.96	7.96	9.63	**	
Memphis		5.00	-0.11	5.11	6.68	*	
Kansas		6.50	-2.07	8.57	9.84	**	
UNLV		7.00	3.16	3.84	4.61	*	
Kent		20.00	14.49	5.51	7.88	*	
Baylor		20.50	13.90	6.60	6.05	**	+
Iowa State	16.00	13.11	2.89	5.98	*	
LSU		-10.00	-17.67	7.67	7.45	**	+
Tulsa		23.50	15.15	8.35	7.83	**	+
Ohio State	-2.50	-8.26	5.76	4.65	*	+
Oregon		-2.00	-5.40	3.40	5.48	*	
Stanford	21.50	17.05	4.45	6.77	*	
Connecticut	16.00	10.88	5.12	4.48	*	+
North Texas	-7.00	-11.05	4.05	6.18	*	
UL-Lafayette	-4.00	-9.25	5.25	6.31	*	


Season	W	L	T	%
***	2	0	0	1.000
**	20	13	1	0.606
*	47	45	1	0.511
+	20	9	0	0.690

 

[onetrickpony]

djchad, do you include "system average" in your numbers? I remember you saying last year that they were not a prediction service similar to Dunkel or Sagarin but rather an average of the numbers posted. Is that correct?

 

[djchad]

No, I do not include system average.

 

[Rebel21]

DJ, thanks alot for these numbers every week. They have been a big help. GL this weekend...

 

[Joe De]

thx ..Ive been waiting to confirm some plays..you got most of them ist as 2 stars..

 

[onetrickpony]

Check your numbers on the Oklahoma game with current line at 5.5

Think you may be missing that game.

 

[jbbg]

chad,

what exactly do you do to your numbers before you post them. Every week I put the numbers into an excel spreadsheet but you always have more "+" plays than I do because your delta is different than mine. What is it that you do and do you think that is more effective than just using the Prediction Average.?

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Thanks again.

HORNS

 

[djchad]

onetrickpony,

This is what I have for the OU game:

Oklahoma -5.50 -8.26 2.76 4.65 -


If the line moves down any, the game will be a (*).

 

[djchad]

jbbg,

See this post.

Also, if you are pulling the averages and standard deviations from the website itself, you will notice a difference. I don't know how the other site comes up with those numbers, but mine are based on all predictions available.

 

[onetrickpony]

onetrickpony,

This is what I have for the OU game:

Oklahoma -5.50 -8.26 2.76 4.65 -


If the line moves down any, the game will be a (*).

djchad, your avgpred for the Oklahoma game appears to be way off. I went back through the numbers again and still get 11.97

 

[djchad]

You are right. I found the problem. On the prediction site, Texas is listed as the away team, whereas my book has Texas as the home team.

So, the correct line for the OU/UT game is:

Oklahoma	   -5.50	-12.21	6.71	4.53	**	+

 

[bej0101]

thanks

 

[nole47]

does that factor in the navy let down factor after beating aforce. i love the letdown factor. big time inplay on the ole miss-ark st game. i took vandy-5 and ark st+25 purely on these factors

 

[onetrickpony]

The home team threw me for a short time also.

Heads up on Haw/Fresno State. Looks like a 3* play for the boys from the Valley.

 

[moleman]

thanks for posting dj.

 

[Franky Wright]

dj

dj

Thanks for all this

 

[djchad]

Adding this play:

Fresno State	3.50	-4.23	7.73	4.22	**	+

 

[Buttermaker]

Bump

 

[moleman]

4-6 for the + plays