Predicted Score vs. Vegas Line - Week 8

[djchad]

Here are the plays for Week 8:

Favors		Line	AvgPred	Delta	StdDev	Play	
Clemson		5.00	0.62	4.38	4.37	*	+
Air Force	5.50	0.11	5.39	6.46	*	
UL-Lafayette	7.00	2.26	4.74	4.82	*	
Rutgers		15.50	8.29	7.21	5.57	**	+
Army		5.50	0.66	4.84	5.13	*	
Buffalo		29.50	23.76	5.74	6.28	*	
Wake Forest	-10.00	-13.61	3.61	4.84	*	
Georgia		-25.00	-32.75	7.75	5.08	**	+
Alabama		3.50	-1.34	4.84	5.64	*	
Louisiana Tech	1.00	-2.14	3.14	3.91	*	
Tulsa		0.00	-3.50	3.50	5.33	*	
Navy		-3.50	-11.40	7.90	6.80	**	+
Boise State	-23.00	-28.89	5.89	5.57	**	+
Arizona State	-6.00	-9.17	3.17	4.26	*	
Northern Ill	-12.00	-18.10	6.10	5.40	**	+
Oregon State	-10.00	-16.09	6.09	4.66	**	+
Washington St	-10.00	-13.05	3.05	3.25	*	
Akron		-5.00	-10.84	5.84	5.67	*	+
Iowa State	16.00	11.39	4.61	5.11	*	
Ohio		16.50	9.73	6.77	5.69	**	+
Colorado	18.00	11.35	6.65	10.88	**	
TCU		-10.50	-14.37	3.87	4.72	*	
Houston		-5.00	-9.85	4.85	4.57	*	+
Kent		12.00	8.61	3.39	4.98	*	
North Texas	-14.00	-17.63	3.63	3.86	**

 

[bej0101]

thanks

 

[Joe De]

looks good for the chalk teams this week as expected

thank you

 

[usbbroker]

DJ
I was wondering at this point in the season what is the difference on the amount of 3* so far this year and the amount that there were at this point last year?? If you get a free minute to take a look, I would love to know. Thanks for taking the time to post this every week.

 

[mademan]

nice work djchad.

 

[djchad]

Line dipped .5 on the UF/Ark game, so I am adding this play:

Arkansas	-4.50	-7.77	3.27	7.24	*

 

[djchad]

usbbroker,

I calculate the 3 stars different this year than last year. Search my old posts and you can see how I do it. I honestly don't think we will see another 3 star game until bowl season But as I have said earlier, I think the (+) rated games are the best plays.

- Chad

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Thanks for all your work!

HORNS

 

[bej0101]

thanks for the update and info

 

[Buttermaker]

:bump:

Thanks djchad for the info

 

[doubleon11]

Good week + plays 6-4

Good week + plays 6-4

 

[djv]

Better then many in here this week.

 

[djchad]

Results from Week 8.

Favors		Line	AvgPred	Delta	StdDev	Play		
Clemson		5.00	0.62	4.38	4.37	*	+	W
Air Force	5.50	0.11	5.39	6.46	*		L
UL-Lafayette	7.00	2.26	4.74	4.82	*		W
Rutgers		15.50	8.29	7.21	5.57	**	+	W
Army		5.50	0.66	4.84	5.13	*		L
Buffalo		29.50	23.76	5.74	6.28	*		W
Wake Forest	-10.00	-13.61	3.61	4.84	*		W
Georgia		-25.00	-32.75	7.75	5.08	**	+	L
Alabama		3.50	-1.34	4.84	5.64	*		L
Arkansas	-4.50	-7.77	3.27	7.24	*		L
Louisiana Tech	1.00	-2.14	3.14	3.91	*		L
Tulsa		0.00	-3.50	3.50	5.33	*		L
Navy		-3.50	-11.40	7.90	6.80	**	+	W
Boise State	-23.00	-28.89	5.89	5.57	**	+	W
Arizona State	-6.00	-9.17	3.17	4.26	*		L
Northern Ill	-12.00	-18.10	6.10	5.40	**	+	W
Oregon State	-10.00	-16.09	6.09	4.66	**	+	L
Washington St	-10.00	-13.05	3.05	3.25	*		T
Akron		-5.00	-10.84	5.84	5.67	*	+	W
Iowa State	16.50	11.39	5.11	5.11	*		L
Ohio		16.50	9.73	6.77	5.69	**	+	L
Colorado	18.00	11.35	6.65	10.88	**		L
TCU		-10.50	-14.37	3.87	4.72	*		L
Houston		-5.00	-9.85	4.85	4.57	*	+	L
Kent		12.00	8.61	3.39	4.98	*		W
North Texas	-14.00	-17.63	3.63	3.86	**		L

Weekly	W	L	T	%
***	0	0	0	#DIV/0!
**	4	5	0	0.444
*	6	10	0	0.375
+	6	4	0	0.600
				
				
				
Season	W	L	T	%
***	2	0	0	1.000
**	30	25	1	0.545
*	59	64	1	0.480
+	30	19	0	0.612

 

[c20916]

Hey djchad, question for you, I was looking back at my data from the previous weeks and I want to compare it with yours. I know you adjust your numbers, but I looked at the predictions with the two lowest std. deviations just to see how they were preforming ytd, and I was surprised that they were like 3-13 ats You will obviously have different games than mine due to your changes, but I was just wondering if you found similar results.

example this past week my two lowest std dev were SDST v. New Mexico; and Stanford v. Wash St. and it predicted that SDST and Wash St would cover and they did not. Just thought it might be another angle to add.

 

[bej0101]

thanks for the hard work