Predicted Score vs. Vegas Line - Week 9

[djchad]

Here are the plays for Week 9. I'll try and update these later this week when a couple more numbers are in.

Favors		Line	AvgPred	Delta	StdDev	Play	
Virginia Tech	-13.00	-16.36	3.36	7.09	*	
Syracuse	7.00	2.80	4.20	4.51	*	
Rutgers		4.50	-1.59	6.09	6.64	**	
Purdue		5.00	1.95	3.05	3.78	*	
Ohio State	-20.50	-25.78	5.28	7.18	*	
Minnesota	-14.00	-18.82	4.82	6.31	*	
South Carolina	-17.00	-20.83	3.83	4.39	*	
Ball State	12.50	8.46	4.04	3.45	*	+
Miami Ohio	-21.50	-25.29	3.79	4.85	*	
Iowa		-10.50	-18.34	7.84	5.82	**	+
Louisville	-16.50	-22.50	6.00	6.51	**	
Kansas		21.00	10.40	10.60	10.69	**	
Tulane		4.50	1.56	2.94	3.42	*	
Tulsa		-17.50	-22.55	5.05	6.06	*	
Baylor		33.00	22.38	10.62	8.73	**	+
Clemson		-13.50	-18.43	4.93	4.08	*	+
USC		-10.00	-13.10	3.10	3.92	*	
Central Mich	7.00	2.11	4.89	4.41	*	+
Washington St	-8.00	-11.37	3.37	2.66	*	+
Utah		-9.00	-12.74	3.74	7.14	*	
UNLV		-3.50	-9.27	5.77	5.81	*	
LSU		-3.50	-6.85	3.35	4.44	*	
TCU		-6.00	-9.96	3.96	3.36	*	+
Wyoming		3.50	-0.12	3.62	4.19	*	
UTEP		27.00	23.41	3.59	4.51	*	
UCLA		-3.00	-7.76	4.76	4.38	*	+
Troy State	21.50	15.46	6.04	8.37	**	
UL-Monroe	3.50	-0.72	4.22	6.71	*

Now, I did something extra for this week to see if I can find some decent games in the system. I took only the predictions from the services that have performed the best against the spread over the whole season.

So I'll call these my "modified" picks - picks done by taking the best 9 services' predictions. Also, I'm just listing the (**) plays and the (+) plays. We'll see if these perform any better than the normal picks.

The modified picks highlight two plays not found in the normal picks - Northern Illinois and Oklahoma.

Favors		Line	AvgPred	Delta	StdDev	Play
Purdue		5.00	1.14	3.86	3.51	*	+
Ohio State	-20.50	-27.66	7.16	10.33	**	
Miami Ohio	-21.50	-26.11	4.61	2.94	*	+
Iowa		-10.50	-18.20	7.70	7.48	**	+
Kansas		21.00	12.14	8.86	12.72	**	
Baylor		33.00	26.29	6.71	8.70	**	
Central Mich	7.00	1.46	5.54	3.48	*	+
TCU		-6.00	-10.48	4.48	3.27	*	+
UTEP		27.00	21.60	5.40	3.58	*	+
UCLA		-3.00	-7.90	4.90	4.53	*	+
Northern Ill	3.50	-1.08	4.58	3.45	*	+
Oklahoma	-25.00	-30.94	5.94	6.93	**

 

[Joe De]

thx for the info ..you just run me off of texas

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Great stuff!

HORNS

 

[c20916]

I posted this in your other thread don't know if you saw it:

Hey djchad, question for you, I was looking back at my data from the previous weeks and I want to compare it with yours. I know you adjust your numbers, but I looked at the predictions with the two lowest std. deviations just to see how they were preforming ytd, and I was surprised that they were like 3-13 ats You will obviously have different games than mine due to your changes, but I was just wondering if you found similar results.

example this past week my two lowest std dev were SDST v. New Mexico; and Stanford v. Wash St. and it predicted that SDST and Wash St would cover and they did not. Just thought it might be another angle to add.

 

[bej0101]

great info..thanks

 

[Venom boy]

Best 9

Best 9

Hey DJ , been doing this number system this year . Was wondering how you can tell which systems have preformed better than others ?? I would like to WEED out the bad ones compared to the good ones!! If there is no way could you please list the best reporting servics ???


Thanks for all the hard work


Venom

 

[jbbg]

best systems

best systems

Chad,

I follow these numbers pretty religiously. Earlier in the year I tried the same thing (using the systems with the best records ATS) and it did not work out like I thought it would. I did not play every game thank goodness. The plays I selected from like the top ten or so went 2-4 or something.

Maybe, being later in the year, this will work better than it did for me. I thought about it, and looked at the records of the systems last year. All of the systems were around 50% for the year. I feel like if there was a system that NEEDED to be weeded out to help the prediction, it would have already been done. I caution you on playing all the games the best systems pick. By the end of the year, most of the systems will be 50/50, so don't count out the ones with the bad records. They will have their day eventually.

 

[bcoogda1]

bump!


is this week 9 or 10?

 

[djv]

I find the second list just about right in numbers. 12 games. This way a 15% player per week can play all 12. And even a couple at 2 units. A person can stay with in there M/M. I think till we have a good feal direction is right. But Maybe a unit per play might be safe way to go. Thks for all your work. I find this interesting each week.