Predicted Scores vs. Vegas Lines - Nov. 14 - 16

[djchad]

Here are the numbers for this weekend.

34 of 38 prediction services reporting.
Avg std dev of 4.34.


<pre>

Favors Line Avg Pred Diff Std Dev Play
Air Force -6.00 -9.56 3.56 3.13 *
Ball St 3.50 0.14 3.36 2.60 *
BC -8.00 -13.04 5.04 3.78 *
Cal -15.50 -20.75 5.25 4.98 *
Colo St -12.50 -17.88 5.38 5.29 *
GT -16.50 -19.34 2.84 3.84 -
Kansas 22.00 16.62 5.38 5.56 *
Kansas St -10.50 -15.70 5.20 5.06 *
Kent 21.00 16.26 4.74 5.64 *
Kentucky -15.50 -20.79 5.29 3.68 *
LA-Monroe 15.00 9.31 5.69 7.00 *
Ohio St -8.50 -17.70 9.20 7.22 **
Oregon -7.00 -9.94 2.94 2.91 -
Sout Miss 1.50 -2.56 4.06 3.08 *
Temple -7.50 -11.75 4.25 5.55 *
Tennessee -7.00 -10.54 3.54 2.43 *
Tulane -19.00 -28.47 9.47 6.06 **
UConn -3.50 -6.52 3.02 3.59 *
UNC 32.00 27.63 4.37 5.55 *
USC -15.00 -18.82 3.82 3.75 *
Utah St 7.50 2.10 5.40 7.60 *
UTEP 6.00 -1.04 7.04 5.96 **
Wyoming 10.00 4.62 5.38 2.38 *



</pre>


Season Record:

3-star 8-1-0 , 88.9%
2-star 16-14-1 , 53.3%
1-star 53-49-2 , 52.0%

 

[ND2002HORNS]

bump

 

[ToddF76]

Dj Chad,
If you could, please explain to me why Utah State and LA-Monroe aren't two star plays. Also, thanks for posting this information east week.

 

[djchad]

Todd,

Please see my old post. The difference on both those games is less than 6 points, so the plays are only one-star.

I'll update the numbers tomorrow... too farking tired tonight to do it.

GLTA

chad

 

[heleanth]

Hey, djchad. Check out Boston College once more. The line has gone down to -7 (Pinnacle). That would bump it up to a 3* play, if I understand your system.

Again, thank you for taking the time.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

bump

 

[heleanth]

Updating as of Friday morning, it looks to me like there are no 3*. I see five 2*:

Ohio St.
SMU
Tulane
Kent
Kansas

Boston College fell below a 6 point difference between the updated line and the average prediction and therefore is a 1*, according to djchad's system.

 

[soulhat]

heleanth, take a look at the numbers for the UTEP/SMU game. it's actually showing a play on UTEP. that being said...no thanks. UTEP??? i'd rather throw a dart than put money on the Miners.

 

[heleanth]

You are correct, Soulhat. My mistake, thanks for catching it. I agree with you that it is probably a good game to stay away from anyway. There is no way I am going to bet on Kansas either.

I think I am going to place a nice size wager on Tulane, a small bet on Ohio St. and let the others slide.

Good luck to everyone.

 

[Master Capper]

Chad, are these the final results for this week or is there another update?

 

[soulhat]

With 37 of 38 reporting, my numbers show one 3 star play on Wyoming +11.5

Difference of 7.2
Std dev of 2.63
Avg std dev 4.35

2 star plays
Kent
Ohio State
Kansas
Utah State
Tulane
UTEP

Pass on the 2 star plays for me. GL

 

[Master Capper]

Soulhat, are you using the same formula as djchad?

 

[djchad]

soulhat was right... with the line move on the Wyoming game, it should have been a 3-star play. But, I didn't list it as such when the numbers came out, so I won't mark it as a 3-star play. Keeping an eye on those line movements can move a game from 1-star to 3-star.

final results:

<pre>
Favors Line Avg Pred Diff Std Dev Play Result Score
Air Force -6.00 -9.56 3.56 3.13 * W 49-32
Ball St 3.50 0.14 3.36 2.60 * W 38-21
BC -8.00 -13.04 5.04 3.78 * W 40-21
Cal -15.50 -20.75 5.25 4.98 * L 41-52
Colo St -12.50 -17.88 5.38 5.29 * W 49-21
Ga Tech -16.50 -19.34 2.84 3.84 - - 17-2
Kansas 22.00 16.62 5.38 5.56 * L 20-55
Kansas St -10.50 -15.70 5.20 5.06 * W 49-13
Kent 21.00 16.26 4.74 5.64 * L 6-32
Kentucky -15.50 -20.79 5.29 3.68 * W 41-21
LA-Monroe 15.00 9.31 5.69 7.00 * L 28-44
Ohio St -8.50 -17.70 9.20 7.22 ** L 23-16
Oregon -7.00 -9.94 2.94 2.91 - - 14-42
Sou Miss 1.50 -2.56 4.06 3.08 * L 17-20
Temple -7.50 -11.75 4.25 5.55 * L 20-17
Tennessee -7.00 -10.54 3.54 2.43 * W 35-17
Tulane -19.00 -28.47 9.47 6.06 ** L 10-14
UConn -3.50 -6.52 3.02 3.59 * W 38-0
UNC 32.00 27.63 4.37 5.55 * W 14-40
USC -15.00 -18.82 3.82 3.75 * W 34-13
Utah St 7.50 2.10 5.40 7.60 * W 19-16
UTEP 6.00 -1.04 7.04 5.96 ** L 35-42
Wyoming 10.00 4.62 5.38 2.38 * W 18-23



Weekly W L T %
*** 0 0 0 0
** 0 3 0 0.000
* 12 6 0 0.667


Season W L T %
*** 8 1 0 0.889
** 16 17 1 0.485
* 65 55 2 0.542



</pre>


The 2-star plays have gone to sh!t lately. 3-12 over the last three weeks.

I'm gonna revise the criteria during the offseason.

 

[Joe De]

the system has merit and i've played with these on and off...what i like playing are games that have a diff. of 5 or more and a std. dev. of under 3 ,,,,wyoming had a 5.38 dif and 2.38 std dev....i'll try this system again this week for strong picks and to lay the hammer on them..thx for info

 

[djchad]

I am thinking of ways to tweak my criteria on these plays for next season.

One thing of note, the standard deviations have gotten lower each week.

6.50, 6.01, 5.16, 4.82, 4.67, 4.68, 4.34, 3.96

So maybe the predictions are getting better, or the lines are more realistic, or both. I dunno. Stuff to think about in the offseason.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

bump

 

[Master Capper]

Is there a updated one for thiw week?

 

[ussrv]

bump

 

[ussrv]

Bump,

This is some good stuff from last year. Hope Chad comes back around.