Predicted Scores vs. Vegas Lines - Nov. 20 - 23

[djchad]

Here are the numbers for Nov. 20 - 23.

37 of 38 reporting, avg std dev of 3.96.

I'll update the lines on Thursday.

<pre>

Favors Line Avg Pred Diff Std Dev Play
Alabama -10.50 -13.03 2.53 2.84 -
Arkansas -12.00 -17.35 5.35 5.04 *
Ball St -16.50 -20.66 4.16 4.43 *
Baylor 29.00 22.68 6.32 7.87 **
Cal -11.00 -15.10 4.10 4.49 *
Cent Mich 2.50 -1.37 3.87 3.17 *
Indiana 22.00 18.86 3.14 4.39 *
Kent 8.00 2.75 5.25 3.31 *
Miami Ohio -3.50 -11.19 7.69 3.57 ***
Minnesota 7.00 4.05 2.95 2.90 -
ND -28.50 -37.84 9.34 9.04 **
North Tex -2.50 -7.05 4.55 3.21 *
North Ill -2.00 -5.94 3.94 3.13 *
Northwstn 14.00 9.67 4.33 5.87 *
Ohio St -3.50 -10.75 7.25 3.38 ***
SJ St 6.50 2.18 4.32 2.34 *
South Fla -14.00 -17.86 3.86 4.37 *
TCU -8.50 -14.78 6.28 4.43 **
UTEP 22.50 16.09 6.41 4.73 **
Vandy 19.00 15.40 3.60 3.77 *
Virginia 9.50 6.63 2.87 3.23 -
Wash St -8.00 -14.04 6.04 4.67 **


</pre>


For the conference championship games and the bowl season,
I am going to provide a prediction strength index.

For example, if 85% of the predictions are on one side of the line,
a line should probably be played.

GLTA

Chad

 

[genosays]

Ohio State as a 3* should stir some things up around here. Thanks for the post djchad. Good info.

 

[djchad]

I calculated the numbers on the Ohio State game myself and came up with some slightly different than the website. But still, it's a 3-star play.

And an interesting note. Every single prediction is on the Ohio State side of the line. The lowest prediction is -6.

 

[Joe De]

I've been looking for a trend on your system....Not 100% accurate but a good indication from previous analysis.....do not play any game that the diffence number is lower then the standard deviation...one game i really like following your system is washing state because the diff is above 6+ and the std dev is 4+ ...

 

[alliecat]

Thanks for the info dj, it is much appreciated

 

[And_One]

BUMP

 

[Unicorn]

Joe De-did you find any plays like Wyoming last week?

Djchad-thanks for the info. no bullsh*t, just info..again much appreciated

To add a little twist to the Miami O 3 star, what do you think Central Florida's players are going to think of the below freezing weather in Oxford, OH? I liked the play going into the week and your numbers make it stronger.

:bigun:

 

[Got5onIt]

Damn!
I wish I would've seen this earlier.
I played Central Florida +3.5 1 unit, & Michigan +3.5 2 units....
The 3 star plays have been VERY reliable, I hope the trend stops this week!

 

[Joe De]

well!,,,, the system above thread i posted didn't work.....will look at the trends monday...thx chad for the info posted

 

[djchad]

Final results:

<pre>
Favors Line Avg Pred Diff Std Dev Play Result Score
Alabama -10.50 -13.03 2.53 2.84 - - 7-17
Arkansas -12.00 -17.35 5.35 5.04 * L 26-19
Ball St -16.50 -20.66 4.16 4.43 * W 41-21
Baylor 29.00 22.68 6.32 7.87 ** L 28-63
Cal -11.00 -15.10 4.10 4.49 * W 30-7
Cent Mich 2.50 -1.37 3.87 3.17 * L 10-35
Indiana 22.00 18.86 3.14 4.39 * L 10-34
Kent 8.00 2.75 5.25 3.31 * L 10-48
Miami Ohio -3.50 -11.19 7.69 3.57 *** L 31-48
Minnesota 7.00 4.05 2.95 2.90 - - 31-49
ND -28.50 -37.84 9.34 9.04 ** W 42-0
North Tex -2.50 -7.05 4.55 3.21 * W 30-20
North Ill -2.00 -5.94 3.94 3.13 * L 30-33
Northwstn 14.00 9.67 4.33 5.87 * W 24-31
Ohio St -3.50 -10.75 7.25 3.38 *** W 14-9
SJ St 6.50 2.18 4.32 2.34 * W 16-19
South Fla -14.00 -17.86 3.86 4.37 * W 32-14
TCU -8.50 -14.78 6.28 4.43 ** L 28-31
UTEP 22.50 16.09 6.41 4.73 ** W 24-38
Vandy 19.00 15.40 3.60 3.77 * L 0-24
Virginia 9.50 6.63 2.87 3.23 - - 48-13
Wash St -8.00 -14.04 6.04 4.67 ** L 26-29


</pre>

Weekly Results
3-star, 1-1-0
2-star, 2-3-0
1-star, 6-6-0

Season Results
3-star 9-2-0, 81.8%
2-star 18-20-1, 47.4%
1-star 71-61-2, 53.8%

 

[pt1gard]

thanx for all your work

thanx for all your work

wa curious, after brialliant start to this system, 7-0 on 3*s, it seems to chugged to halt: 2-2 on 3*s and much worse on 2*s ... what is your opinion as of moment?

take care, gregg