Not sure I?m doing this right but thought I?d give it a go since I haven?t seen DJchad around. My apologies to DJchad for ?stealing/borrowing? what he came up with.
This was his explanation from either last season or 2 seasons ago.
3 star play = The predicted score is at least 6.00 above the posted line AND the std. deviation of the predicted scores is less than the avg of the std dev's.
2 star play = The predicted score is at least 6.00 above the posted line AND the std. deviation of the predicted scores is greater than the avg of the std dev's.
1 star play = The predicted score is at least 3.00 above the posted line but less than 6.00 above the posted line.
In simple terms, if the predicted margin of victory is much higher than the posted line, in this case 6 pts, then you should play the game (2 star). Also, if the predicted margin of victory is over 6 pts, and most of the predictions are fairly close (a low std. deviation), then you should really play the game (3 star)
Also, since this is only the 2nd week not sure how reliabe the numbers are.
And my formatting somewhat sucks but I hope it?s readable. The picks are in brackets.
I found the average standard deviation to be 5.6 this week.
Home..........Away..........Open..........Curr..........Pred..........Std Dev
**..........Alabama..........(Mississippi)..........10..........11..........3.4..........6.34
***..........(Arkansas)..........Texas..........-10..........-11..........-4.8..........5.19
***..........(Bost Coll)..........Penn St...........1..........-2.5..........5.61..........4.85
**..........Cincinnati..........(Miami Oh)..........-2.5..........-3.5..........-11.52..........5.86
**..........Texas A&M..........(Wyoming)..........9.5..........11.5..........5.53..........6.52
*..........Utah St...........(Idaho)..........10.5..........11..........6.54..........4.22
***..........(Wash St)..........Colorado..........3..........3..........10.38..........4.81
This was his explanation from either last season or 2 seasons ago.
3 star play = The predicted score is at least 6.00 above the posted line AND the std. deviation of the predicted scores is less than the avg of the std dev's.
2 star play = The predicted score is at least 6.00 above the posted line AND the std. deviation of the predicted scores is greater than the avg of the std dev's.
1 star play = The predicted score is at least 3.00 above the posted line but less than 6.00 above the posted line.
In simple terms, if the predicted margin of victory is much higher than the posted line, in this case 6 pts, then you should play the game (2 star). Also, if the predicted margin of victory is over 6 pts, and most of the predictions are fairly close (a low std. deviation), then you should really play the game (3 star)
Also, since this is only the 2nd week not sure how reliabe the numbers are.
And my formatting somewhat sucks but I hope it?s readable. The picks are in brackets.
I found the average standard deviation to be 5.6 this week.
Home..........Away..........Open..........Curr..........Pred..........Std Dev
**..........Alabama..........(Mississippi)..........10..........11..........3.4..........6.34
***..........(Arkansas)..........Texas..........-10..........-11..........-4.8..........5.19
***..........(Bost Coll)..........Penn St...........1..........-2.5..........5.61..........4.85
**..........Cincinnati..........(Miami Oh)..........-2.5..........-3.5..........-11.52..........5.86
**..........Texas A&M..........(Wyoming)..........9.5..........11.5..........5.53..........6.52
*..........Utah St...........(Idaho)..........10.5..........11..........6.54..........4.22
***..........(Wash St)..........Colorado..........3..........3..........10.38..........4.81
