2002 predictions some were dead on and some were terrible. so a quick review.
1. Natural gas falls from $2.47 perphaps even below $2. However by this time next year
Natural gas recovers and trades in the $3-$4 range.
correct: natural gas prices were weak but have recovered and are now even higher, trading over $5. supply is not keeping up with the growing demand, will weaken in the spring but $4-$5 prices will be the standard.
2. Inflation stays below 2.5%.
coorect: it did, in fact there was fears of deflation which will not happen. that prediction though is for 2003
3. Gold stays below $310. currently trading at $278.50, not a gold bug but eventually
gold will trade up to around $325-$350, just not this year.
almost: well looking back when gold was trading at $250 stated gold would go up just like I did in 2002 from $278.50, just did not believe it would hit $350 in 2002. would hit these numbers in 2003. the gold move is been stronger and faster than I thought. if it can go to $400 moose pasture with a story may be worth millions.
4. Hedge funds, everyone is talking about them, a book about picking a good hedge fund
made the top 10 (business/investments) books sold. Brokers are pushing them and many
people believe there is reduced risk. some do have reduced risks but many do not, this
time next year there will be several horror stories of large losses by people who invested in hedge funds. As ussual some of these funds that are created and sold are just disasters waiting to happen.
wrong: Hedge funds for the most part had a good year, still there will be some big blow ups, just a matter of time.
5. Car predictions: The best US car company in terms of its prospects will be GM. GM will
continue strong truck sales and will also have every car model redesigned in three years. You must do this in 3-5 years or sales fall off a cliff.
correct: GM was the strongest US automobile company.
The greatest turnaround in ages continues, as Nissan increases sales and profits.
correct: Nissan keeps on producing increases in revenues and profits. hope for any car company near death.
Big three change the 5 years 0%, they have to as they have lost millions by bascially
losing money on every car they sell with this option. instead they will offer rebates
sometimes very large ones on selected models and offer the zero financing only for short
periods of time and only on 1-3 years. Most consumers choose 5 years even if they have
to pay interest since payments are lower.
wrong: the US automobile companies offered 0% throughout the year, and the rebates were kept throughout much the year. hard to make profits when you offer 0%, or high cash rebates for the whole year. Consumers seem to be demanding them so sales would tank it they got rid of them, not a good sign...for the car companies.
Finally Car sales in the US fall from last years level.
held up very well.
6. Russia : I heard in 1999 that Russia was no longer a superpower. lets see 2nd largest
producer of oil, large military (even though it is in shambles) when was it not in disarray).
Large amounts of forgein debt will be forgiven (which always help). Also Russia has
strong connections with the Northern Alliance which now control (if anyone does)
Afganistan, when the US moves on Russia will have a great deal of control in the country. So after 2002 they are a superpower, the media will even say so.
correct: Northern Alliance controls about 70% of the government (government posts) and their main ally is Russia. Oil production and the economy is growing and the military is not quite in the same mess as it was. Russia is a super power.
7. The Euro will rise against the US dollar, tried this one last year, so it has to be correct one of these years.
correct: the US dollar fell in 2002 and the trend continues in 2003.
8. Nasdaq breaks over 2400 (2044) probably higer but let us keep it there for now.
Dow over 11,000 (10,172) and TSE increases over 8800 from 7774.2
wrong: terrible: wrong: wrong: not even close: no more market predictions for the year. okay 2003 market will go up, on year in the past 3 it has to be correct........sure.......
9. Enron investigations by the government continue along with recommendations, and will
get to hear that it will never happen again with; may bring in some rules. Nothing will
change, nothing.
correct: well there was Tyco, Worldcom, and about a dozen others also Williams management showed how you could destroy shareholder value 91% by just being stupid. sometimes you wish the company was run by a four year old....in some cases a great improvement.
as for the new laws and regulations, nothing changes, nothing, the same thing will happen at the end of the next bull market. nothing changes. not as if dozens will be going to jail......it will not change.
10. Cdn dollar moves above .65 stay below .70.
wrong: close it is at .64 should rally one of these years to around .68.......one of these years....
11. Air Canada goes bankrupt.
wrong: well should have mentioned some US carriers as it was a terrible time to the airline carriers with some going bankrupt and others on life support. Air Canada will survive for now it has a monopoly on many of the routes it flys. done a good job breaking the company up into different divisions. which can be in part later sold to the public.
12. Amazon makes a quarterly operating profit, who says accounting is not a (art form)
correct: Amazon is a dot com that will survive; like to bash the stock but it will survive however at the end of the day it is still an expensive retailer.
Stocks
1. XIT $10.50 (TSE) an index of Canadian Tech companies will move higher.
wrong : $4.25
2. QQQs $41.50 if XIT move higher so will QQQs.
wrong: $25.68 no tech rebound may take a while but when there is these indexes should rebound sharply.
3. Nortel ($13.32 cdn)/Cisco $20.76 both move higher, they are fully valued and are not
cheap but they are well off their lows and any news even of weak revenue seems to
push the shares higher. both move up.
wrong: Wrong: next time I say a stock is fully valued will not list it just because I think techs will rebound. saying that Cisco held up fairly well compared to other stocks. Nortel would state it was sell, should not have been on this list. Nortel was more hope....mistake.
4. Saputo $26.75 cdn (TSE) would buy below $24.50. Good Cheese and Diary company good everyone needs their calcium. anyways good cashflow and well run.
correct: the stock hit a high of $34.25 now trades at $25.65. still the stock had a good run in a bad year for the markets. good company.
5. Nexfor last years idiot selection made over 13% in a down market, so it will be back
this year. currently at $7.40 cdn TSE would buy below $7.
2001 idiot selection was worth sticking with, trades at $8.36 with a high of $9.70. also 4% yield...what is not to like.
6. TD $41.46 cdn, own TD bank and believe it can break above over $45 with the div a decent return. Not cheap but a good long term holding.
wrong: TD lost money this year, that is hard to do for a cdn. bank but have to quarters of massive writedowns in telecom and US utilities and these things happen. TD management also claimed some of these problems got worse just a weeks before they warned. Garbage; most were basket cases, TD also loaned out more money to them, yikes...... still new CEO will take them back to retail banking. good long term buy.
7. CP rail$33.05 if they can improve their railway and be as effient as CNR (CNI) then this stock moves higher. CNR (CNI) and CP are two good Cdn. Railways worth tracking.
CP is at $31.99 and CNR $66.84 both railways held up well in this terrible market. like both stocks.
soon 2003 predictions.
thanks
selkirk
1. Natural gas falls from $2.47 perphaps even below $2. However by this time next year
Natural gas recovers and trades in the $3-$4 range.
correct: natural gas prices were weak but have recovered and are now even higher, trading over $5. supply is not keeping up with the growing demand, will weaken in the spring but $4-$5 prices will be the standard.
2. Inflation stays below 2.5%.
coorect: it did, in fact there was fears of deflation which will not happen. that prediction though is for 2003
3. Gold stays below $310. currently trading at $278.50, not a gold bug but eventually
gold will trade up to around $325-$350, just not this year.
almost: well looking back when gold was trading at $250 stated gold would go up just like I did in 2002 from $278.50, just did not believe it would hit $350 in 2002. would hit these numbers in 2003. the gold move is been stronger and faster than I thought. if it can go to $400 moose pasture with a story may be worth millions.
4. Hedge funds, everyone is talking about them, a book about picking a good hedge fund
made the top 10 (business/investments) books sold. Brokers are pushing them and many
people believe there is reduced risk. some do have reduced risks but many do not, this
time next year there will be several horror stories of large losses by people who invested in hedge funds. As ussual some of these funds that are created and sold are just disasters waiting to happen.
wrong: Hedge funds for the most part had a good year, still there will be some big blow ups, just a matter of time.
5. Car predictions: The best US car company in terms of its prospects will be GM. GM will
continue strong truck sales and will also have every car model redesigned in three years. You must do this in 3-5 years or sales fall off a cliff.
correct: GM was the strongest US automobile company.
The greatest turnaround in ages continues, as Nissan increases sales and profits.
correct: Nissan keeps on producing increases in revenues and profits. hope for any car company near death.
Big three change the 5 years 0%, they have to as they have lost millions by bascially
losing money on every car they sell with this option. instead they will offer rebates
sometimes very large ones on selected models and offer the zero financing only for short
periods of time and only on 1-3 years. Most consumers choose 5 years even if they have
to pay interest since payments are lower.
wrong: the US automobile companies offered 0% throughout the year, and the rebates were kept throughout much the year. hard to make profits when you offer 0%, or high cash rebates for the whole year. Consumers seem to be demanding them so sales would tank it they got rid of them, not a good sign...for the car companies.
Finally Car sales in the US fall from last years level.
held up very well.
6. Russia : I heard in 1999 that Russia was no longer a superpower. lets see 2nd largest
producer of oil, large military (even though it is in shambles) when was it not in disarray).
Large amounts of forgein debt will be forgiven (which always help). Also Russia has
strong connections with the Northern Alliance which now control (if anyone does)
Afganistan, when the US moves on Russia will have a great deal of control in the country. So after 2002 they are a superpower, the media will even say so.
correct: Northern Alliance controls about 70% of the government (government posts) and their main ally is Russia. Oil production and the economy is growing and the military is not quite in the same mess as it was. Russia is a super power.
7. The Euro will rise against the US dollar, tried this one last year, so it has to be correct one of these years.
correct: the US dollar fell in 2002 and the trend continues in 2003.
8. Nasdaq breaks over 2400 (2044) probably higer but let us keep it there for now.
Dow over 11,000 (10,172) and TSE increases over 8800 from 7774.2
wrong: terrible: wrong: wrong: not even close: no more market predictions for the year. okay 2003 market will go up, on year in the past 3 it has to be correct........sure.......
9. Enron investigations by the government continue along with recommendations, and will
get to hear that it will never happen again with; may bring in some rules. Nothing will
change, nothing.
correct: well there was Tyco, Worldcom, and about a dozen others also Williams management showed how you could destroy shareholder value 91% by just being stupid. sometimes you wish the company was run by a four year old....in some cases a great improvement.
as for the new laws and regulations, nothing changes, nothing, the same thing will happen at the end of the next bull market. nothing changes. not as if dozens will be going to jail......it will not change.
10. Cdn dollar moves above .65 stay below .70.
wrong: close it is at .64 should rally one of these years to around .68.......one of these years....
11. Air Canada goes bankrupt.
wrong: well should have mentioned some US carriers as it was a terrible time to the airline carriers with some going bankrupt and others on life support. Air Canada will survive for now it has a monopoly on many of the routes it flys. done a good job breaking the company up into different divisions. which can be in part later sold to the public.
12. Amazon makes a quarterly operating profit, who says accounting is not a (art form)
correct: Amazon is a dot com that will survive; like to bash the stock but it will survive however at the end of the day it is still an expensive retailer.
Stocks
1. XIT $10.50 (TSE) an index of Canadian Tech companies will move higher.
wrong : $4.25
2. QQQs $41.50 if XIT move higher so will QQQs.
wrong: $25.68 no tech rebound may take a while but when there is these indexes should rebound sharply.
3. Nortel ($13.32 cdn)/Cisco $20.76 both move higher, they are fully valued and are not
cheap but they are well off their lows and any news even of weak revenue seems to
push the shares higher. both move up.
wrong: Wrong: next time I say a stock is fully valued will not list it just because I think techs will rebound. saying that Cisco held up fairly well compared to other stocks. Nortel would state it was sell, should not have been on this list. Nortel was more hope....mistake.
4. Saputo $26.75 cdn (TSE) would buy below $24.50. Good Cheese and Diary company good everyone needs their calcium. anyways good cashflow and well run.
correct: the stock hit a high of $34.25 now trades at $25.65. still the stock had a good run in a bad year for the markets. good company.
5. Nexfor last years idiot selection made over 13% in a down market, so it will be back
this year. currently at $7.40 cdn TSE would buy below $7.
2001 idiot selection was worth sticking with, trades at $8.36 with a high of $9.70. also 4% yield...what is not to like.
6. TD $41.46 cdn, own TD bank and believe it can break above over $45 with the div a decent return. Not cheap but a good long term holding.
wrong: TD lost money this year, that is hard to do for a cdn. bank but have to quarters of massive writedowns in telecom and US utilities and these things happen. TD management also claimed some of these problems got worse just a weeks before they warned. Garbage; most were basket cases, TD also loaned out more money to them, yikes...... still new CEO will take them back to retail banking. good long term buy.
7. CP rail$33.05 if they can improve their railway and be as effient as CNR (CNI) then this stock moves higher. CNR (CNI) and CP are two good Cdn. Railways worth tracking.
CP is at $31.99 and CNR $66.84 both railways held up well in this terrible market. like both stocks.
soon 2003 predictions.
thanks
selkirk
