some were good, the stock section did fairly well, when compared to the index. also one small penny stock picked a few years back, will pick another one or two for this year. here is a recap of last year. any comments are welcomed.
2007 predictions
Jan 3, 2007.
1. the cdn. government (conservatives) minority. will fall in 2007. will be replaced by a liberal minority, outside shot at a majority.
Wrong: (the government never fell, because the liberal leader did not have a good year, however their will be an election this year. will be either a liberal or conservative minority...to close to call.)
2. cdn. dollar does not go to par, like some experts were calling for, trades in a range .82-.90. will not break over .90 US
Wrong: (the dollar hit 1.10 probably that is overshot where it should be, however at around .94-.95 to par is probably the new range. federal govt. books are in surplus and the resource boom helps the currency...for the most part bullish on cnd. dollar, just did not think it would move so quick so fast.)
3. bearish on energy short term, bullish long term. will see if opec can support the prices. oil trades 55-65. and may even go to 48-55.
natural gas also weak trading around 5.50-7.
Wrong/Correct : Wrong on oii price, have been bullish but had some concern of a pullback. truth is the cost of production has risen so oil should remain higher,...than we are used to..../natural gas has stayed below $7 for much of year, which means misery for cdn. and most US natural gas producers.
April, May may be a good time to add to your energy portfolio.
4. base metal stocks flat to down. look these stocks are dirt cheap and the etf in Canada was up over 80%. still these stocks will be flat to down for 2007. people will leave these stocks, may provide a chance to get in 3-6 months.
Correct: most of the base metal (cdn. ) companies I follow are down, or close to their lows, hbm close 19.50 (29-18), TCK.b 53.35-33.03 close 35.43. Zinc will have another tough year, also nickel, and copper so 2008 will be treding water.
5. book to Avoid
Why We want you to be Rich by Kiyosaki, Trump.
only read four chapters, however will not read the rest. also basing the opinion on WSJ review, which panned the book. There is little, well no detailed info. also do not like this qoute
"In many ways that will be explained later in this book, both Donald and I can beat Warren?s rates of returns on investment. He may be richer, but we can get richer faster using our own methods and use less money."
now Kiyosaki take this shot at a great investor, that most anyone has heard of, it is great marketing, but is also BS.
Buffet has made incredible returns over time, currently would rate berkshire a hold. it is just hard to make 10% on a company that size. almost worth owning the stock to get the annual report. now that is worth about 10X this book. waste of paper....
6. Canada economy will grow 1-3% probably on the low end.
(Correct: just over 3%,...close enough.... )
7. US will grow around 1-2.5%, the economy will slow but still have positive growth.
(correct: once the numbers are revised downward, you will overall growth for the year just below 3%.)
8. US housing will not cause a blow up in the economy, though it is a concern in some regions, the story on a nationwide basis is overblown.
WRONG!!WRONG!!, okay now the US did not enter into a recession on the housing but may not be the case in 08, and caused plenty of pain, actually the paper and just trying to find, who owns what mortgages, has been a mess.
time to hire more acountant to sift through the mess. the problem reaches its peak in February/early March. then the reset rate will no longer be a problem.... if the Fed drop 50-75 basis points in the first quarter problem will pass......)well...
9. last year talked about buying a gold fund. would take those gains, 50-80% in many cases off the table. would keep the orginal invesments.
(Correct: was a good suggestion to money off the table, as for your orginal investment these gold funds gained 2.4-8% so not bad, did not beat Toronto 7%, 9.2 counting divs. still there is a chance gold breaks out, so would keep a small portion in invesments like these.
last year you make 50-80% and this year more like 5%. that is how volatile these returns can be.... do not be overwieght.)
some cdn. funds in Canada Dynamic, BMo, Royal, TD, CIBC, these have low min 1000-500. all no load except dynmic (buy through discount or good broker). gold share etf though underperformed these has low mer .55. not diverisfied though.
10. final facts/thoughts
- avg. family of four produces 20lbs more garbage than 30 years ago. maybe garbage business.
- most people who pay for Christmas gifts on Credit card end up paying 45% more in interest before the bill is paid off.
- bacteria ranks the top 3 behind cancer heart diesease. maybe more but at least top 3. in North America.
- Wrap accounts should be avoided for the most part.
11. investors every year run into similar people:
1. client complains about her poor returns, her brokerage account (full service) went up 17%. she wants a higher return with out any risk.
2. met 3 people this year, invest in penny stock, stocks are down 30-80%. they have not sold and are happy, because they can now buy even more.
this end up 90% of the time a money pit.
(every year I hear, or know of 2-3 sometimes more, who put everything in a stock that just keeps losing money....breaks a rule...never break the rules.)
(sad during every bull market people try to borrow)
3. met two people that were going to borrow 100K, to 300,000. and invest this money in the market. these people are describe themselves as long term investors.
they are not. if the market drops 20% with 8% loan, they will worry about losing their home.
if you want to borrow to invest start with small amounts. like 10,000 or less. so many people during a bull market put their house on the line.
STOCKS did not perform badly these were mostly index plays.
Stocks
will list more later, these are more long term in nature.
US
EEB (interesting index way of playing emerging markets.)
(high 58.0469 low 14.1169 close 53.39)
bought 31.57
EEB return 69.88%( counts .24312 div)
cnd.
CBQ (same as EEB in US)
bought 25.89
return 64.83% (counting div)
CRQ (div, index fund.)
bought $11
return 8.6% (counting div)
added in the same post later
SNP.u
bought 5.06
return 8.89% should state this did hit $7 this is a levergage etf on health care, when it runs up take profits. took most off the table at $6.50. using closing price of $5.45. be carefull when trading, large spreads sometimes between bid/ask.
BSC (leverage play on BNS)
bought 15.60
return counting div. -4.38%
small loss hit a high of 16.99 low 13.06, closed at 14.57. BNS held up well considering the blood bath most financials had.....would be a long term holding.
Small cap
QC bought 3.30
closed $2.70 high 3.51 low 1.88
return -15.15% (counting div)
overall
4 winnner and two loser, and the worse loss was my small cap -15.15%, by the way one small cap I mentioned in the predictions thread went from 2-21.
so some times these take time...Quest will be a tax loss, may re-enter the stock later....upside and downside are limited in this finance company.
overall return(all 6) +22.11%
by the way would have been better to own BNS, as the dividend is higher than this split share....own both.
thanks
selkirk
2007 predictions
Jan 3, 2007.
1. the cdn. government (conservatives) minority. will fall in 2007. will be replaced by a liberal minority, outside shot at a majority.
Wrong: (the government never fell, because the liberal leader did not have a good year, however their will be an election this year. will be either a liberal or conservative minority...to close to call.)
2. cdn. dollar does not go to par, like some experts were calling for, trades in a range .82-.90. will not break over .90 US
Wrong: (the dollar hit 1.10 probably that is overshot where it should be, however at around .94-.95 to par is probably the new range. federal govt. books are in surplus and the resource boom helps the currency...for the most part bullish on cnd. dollar, just did not think it would move so quick so fast.)
3. bearish on energy short term, bullish long term. will see if opec can support the prices. oil trades 55-65. and may even go to 48-55.
natural gas also weak trading around 5.50-7.
Wrong/Correct : Wrong on oii price, have been bullish but had some concern of a pullback. truth is the cost of production has risen so oil should remain higher,...than we are used to..../natural gas has stayed below $7 for much of year, which means misery for cdn. and most US natural gas producers.
April, May may be a good time to add to your energy portfolio.
4. base metal stocks flat to down. look these stocks are dirt cheap and the etf in Canada was up over 80%. still these stocks will be flat to down for 2007. people will leave these stocks, may provide a chance to get in 3-6 months.
Correct: most of the base metal (cdn. ) companies I follow are down, or close to their lows, hbm close 19.50 (29-18), TCK.b 53.35-33.03 close 35.43. Zinc will have another tough year, also nickel, and copper so 2008 will be treding water.
5. book to Avoid
Why We want you to be Rich by Kiyosaki, Trump.
only read four chapters, however will not read the rest. also basing the opinion on WSJ review, which panned the book. There is little, well no detailed info. also do not like this qoute
"In many ways that will be explained later in this book, both Donald and I can beat Warren?s rates of returns on investment. He may be richer, but we can get richer faster using our own methods and use less money."
now Kiyosaki take this shot at a great investor, that most anyone has heard of, it is great marketing, but is also BS.
Buffet has made incredible returns over time, currently would rate berkshire a hold. it is just hard to make 10% on a company that size. almost worth owning the stock to get the annual report. now that is worth about 10X this book. waste of paper....
6. Canada economy will grow 1-3% probably on the low end.
(Correct: just over 3%,...close enough.... )
7. US will grow around 1-2.5%, the economy will slow but still have positive growth.
(correct: once the numbers are revised downward, you will overall growth for the year just below 3%.)
8. US housing will not cause a blow up in the economy, though it is a concern in some regions, the story on a nationwide basis is overblown.
WRONG!!WRONG!!, okay now the US did not enter into a recession on the housing but may not be the case in 08, and caused plenty of pain, actually the paper and just trying to find, who owns what mortgages, has been a mess.
time to hire more acountant to sift through the mess. the problem reaches its peak in February/early March. then the reset rate will no longer be a problem.... if the Fed drop 50-75 basis points in the first quarter problem will pass......)well...
9. last year talked about buying a gold fund. would take those gains, 50-80% in many cases off the table. would keep the orginal invesments.
(Correct: was a good suggestion to money off the table, as for your orginal investment these gold funds gained 2.4-8% so not bad, did not beat Toronto 7%, 9.2 counting divs. still there is a chance gold breaks out, so would keep a small portion in invesments like these.
last year you make 50-80% and this year more like 5%. that is how volatile these returns can be.... do not be overwieght.)
some cdn. funds in Canada Dynamic, BMo, Royal, TD, CIBC, these have low min 1000-500. all no load except dynmic (buy through discount or good broker). gold share etf though underperformed these has low mer .55. not diverisfied though.
10. final facts/thoughts
- avg. family of four produces 20lbs more garbage than 30 years ago. maybe garbage business.
- most people who pay for Christmas gifts on Credit card end up paying 45% more in interest before the bill is paid off.
- bacteria ranks the top 3 behind cancer heart diesease. maybe more but at least top 3. in North America.
- Wrap accounts should be avoided for the most part.
11. investors every year run into similar people:
1. client complains about her poor returns, her brokerage account (full service) went up 17%. she wants a higher return with out any risk.
2. met 3 people this year, invest in penny stock, stocks are down 30-80%. they have not sold and are happy, because they can now buy even more.
this end up 90% of the time a money pit.
(every year I hear, or know of 2-3 sometimes more, who put everything in a stock that just keeps losing money....breaks a rule...never break the rules.)
(sad during every bull market people try to borrow)
3. met two people that were going to borrow 100K, to 300,000. and invest this money in the market. these people are describe themselves as long term investors.
they are not. if the market drops 20% with 8% loan, they will worry about losing their home.
if you want to borrow to invest start with small amounts. like 10,000 or less. so many people during a bull market put their house on the line.
STOCKS did not perform badly these were mostly index plays.
Stocks
will list more later, these are more long term in nature.
US
EEB (interesting index way of playing emerging markets.)
(high 58.0469 low 14.1169 close 53.39)
bought 31.57
EEB return 69.88%( counts .24312 div)
cnd.
CBQ (same as EEB in US)
bought 25.89
return 64.83% (counting div)
CRQ (div, index fund.)
bought $11
return 8.6% (counting div)
added in the same post later
SNP.u
bought 5.06
return 8.89% should state this did hit $7 this is a levergage etf on health care, when it runs up take profits. took most off the table at $6.50. using closing price of $5.45. be carefull when trading, large spreads sometimes between bid/ask.
BSC (leverage play on BNS)
bought 15.60
return counting div. -4.38%
small loss hit a high of 16.99 low 13.06, closed at 14.57. BNS held up well considering the blood bath most financials had.....would be a long term holding.
Small cap
QC bought 3.30
closed $2.70 high 3.51 low 1.88
return -15.15% (counting div)
overall
4 winnner and two loser, and the worse loss was my small cap -15.15%, by the way one small cap I mentioned in the predictions thread went from 2-21.
so some times these take time...Quest will be a tax loss, may re-enter the stock later....upside and downside are limited in this finance company.overall return(all 6) +22.11%
by the way would have been better to own BNS, as the dividend is higher than this split share....own both.
thanks
selkirk
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