updated comments are in brackets.
2011
1. oil is going higher, if the economy slowly grows then oil should do just fine, there is a good list of oil companies that are great as long as oil stays above 80.
oil is at 91 and should head higher along with a growing economy though slowly, and concern over the us and euro.
Correct (oil went up and down but at the end of the year was at $100, so this worked out well, the supply is limited. so as long as the economy limps forward oil stays high)
my biggest position is cnq canadian natural resources avg. cost high 30s 35-37cdn. now at 44.. if oil stays here cnq should make 15-20%
(Wrong: CNQ had an accident and over half the year their oil sand project was off line, it happened in March, but at the end did not effect the stock that much, CNQ, Cenvous, Suncor did nothing this year, these stocks are cheap and have rallied since early december, CNQ 39.33 cdn. 38.64US it is cheap. but most oil sands plays are.)
2. natutal gas has lagged and is not as good however at 4.50 like it to go higher and move up with oil....should hold at 4, and over time go to 5.50 - 6.
(Wrong: Many companies cannot produce natural gas, not a raging bull on nat gas, but at below $4. most are losing money producing, also a mild winter has not been good, this is not rally in the near future.)
3. gold last year thought it would be in a range of 900-1200 and liked the sector though was always scared of a correction...and did not think it would hit 1400 but qe2 sealed that.....
not a gold bug but would have some exposure to the sector, it is doing well.
(correct: okay did not give a target, but the sector has done okay, odd that gold has performed much better than the sr. gold companies. gold companies will do fine, and will still have holdings in gold)
4. as I wirte this believe the US economy will grow at 2-4%, and unemployment will decline but slowly, so the world wide economy should do fine, and the emerging markets will double the performance from the US and europe.
(wrong/correct : the US did have growth but it was less that 2% for most of the year, and 4% was to high, should have said 1-3%, the world wide economy did experience growth but much smaller, also emerging markets growth is much higher than the US and especially eurpope which was basically flat to negative, depends on the nation.)
5. cdn. dollar goes to par and above, the fiscal situration is better, and if world markets hit silly season then people will not run to the US dollar. Cdn. dollar is a play on the resources, the cdn. dollar goes to 1.05, the only thing that may stop this is an election, which if it happen probably happen in the spring.
(Correct : the dollar went above par and 1.05 was basically the high, 1.04 and change, believe it was there for a day, the election did happen and the conservatives won a majority, ndp opposition, and liberals were destoryed, but they will come back...)
6. here is a list of things that might blow up worldwide economy not counting war, terrorism, the usual.
a elections in germany at the state level and large losses by the ruling party.
b portugal blows up.
c greece see b
d spain see b and c, actually they are in better shape and only about 30-40% chance this happens but if it does, much worse than b+C, much worse.
(Correct : Europe is a mess, even more than I thought but it did not absolutely disappear, or was not destroyed. see 2012 predictions)
7. the US can kick the debt problem down the road for some time years and years, and years, as long as the economy grows they will have time to fix the problems....if the economy were to contract by -5% then it wiould be big problems that would have to be faced.....this does not happen....not fun if it does...
(correct: no real movement on the US debt problem and it is pushed down the road, until they have to face up to the probelm.)
stocks
1. trp 37.99cdn.
transcanada trades in the us and canada talked about it for quite some time, yields 4.21%
july 36 1.03 1.13P
july 38 1.81 1.98 p
july 38 1.55call
so would just hold it as a buy and hold but the top two are options so the person would pay you 1.03 to 1.13 to sell you trp at 36 cdn. or high for a 38.
the july 38 is a covered call and should beat the bonds, on a shorter term, which get you less than 2%.
note trp stays flat or goes down if we enter into silly season and you will have a great chance to buy...
(Correct : this trade basically worked, and is nice and confusing, the covered calls or puts worked nice on the stock throughout the year the low was 36.10 cdn. and closed at 43.95 today,
anways if you just bought and sold just under a 20% gain counting div...and that works out just fine.
any pipeline worked out enb, did miss out on the smaller pipelines only had small positions, but these did 25-40%., should have seen that coming.)
2. afl 56.43 2.14% yield
I am buying the duck, more later, some things concern me with this play but I like the small yield and cheap valuation...small play.
WRONG 44.86 hit a low of 31.25 the Japaneese natural disaster killed the stock, it still is cheap.
counting div loss -19.18%
3. nick 10.24
hope this has 15-20% in this stock, like the stock still and the valuation, note: this is higher risk reward, still, US financials have higher risk and higher reward than cdn. banks.
(Correct : 12.85 this returned over 28% counting the div., should point out that was first selected in 2010 at 6.95. will stick with it, yes scares me, and will take some off the table but still like it, note: 20% stop loss. but will hopefully have this for a while....)
4. CBR 20.80 bought currently at 22.87
trades on toronto, is the claymore broad commodity etf, .80% believe this might be a good way to play commodities without the equtiy risk.
will talk about this more going forward.
looking for 10-15% with large amount of volatility, long term holding.
(---- basically did better than the market, was flat but thats it, hit a high of 27 but went to 22.24 and closed at 22.72 for a slight loss 0.6%, should have played something better for resources.)
5. CNQ 44.35
trades in Canada and the US, this a is large oil sands play, and is a large holding for me in the mid high 30s, like the company, and at 90 oil this will have great cash flow.
aug 48 call 2.31 2.46
have covered calls most are shorter but put this one because on of the longer ones in the predition thread.
(-5.25% if you count the money from the option that expired worthless and the small div, lost 5.25%, they were down for over half the year, the stock is decent value.)
6. facebook goes public near the end of 2011, but probably in 2012, along with groupon, silly season may start and these are the sign and the valuations, especially groupon. the better they do....the better prices you will get on great boring div stocks....
(Facebook will try to go public in 2012 and groupon, silly season was short this year, by the way group on is a train wreck, stay clear.......)
7. if you are in long term bonds and preferred prep,.....reduce....rates are going to start going up slowy.
maybe more later...
(Wrong : rates went down, did not think they would rise rapidly, well some debt in the world went up but in Cdn. and the US rates went down., the advice was correct though be careful of long term debt, stay to the short term rates.)
(not bad the stocks had a good return biggest winner nick, biggest loss afl, also TRP was a good winner. on avearage the stock were up, so not a bad year....dumbest move was thinking nat gas, and rates would go up. most of the rest worked out.)
thanks
selkirk
2011
1. oil is going higher, if the economy slowly grows then oil should do just fine, there is a good list of oil companies that are great as long as oil stays above 80.
oil is at 91 and should head higher along with a growing economy though slowly, and concern over the us and euro.
Correct (oil went up and down but at the end of the year was at $100, so this worked out well, the supply is limited. so as long as the economy limps forward oil stays high)
my biggest position is cnq canadian natural resources avg. cost high 30s 35-37cdn. now at 44.. if oil stays here cnq should make 15-20%
(Wrong: CNQ had an accident and over half the year their oil sand project was off line, it happened in March, but at the end did not effect the stock that much, CNQ, Cenvous, Suncor did nothing this year, these stocks are cheap and have rallied since early december, CNQ 39.33 cdn. 38.64US it is cheap. but most oil sands plays are.)
2. natutal gas has lagged and is not as good however at 4.50 like it to go higher and move up with oil....should hold at 4, and over time go to 5.50 - 6.
(Wrong: Many companies cannot produce natural gas, not a raging bull on nat gas, but at below $4. most are losing money producing, also a mild winter has not been good, this is not rally in the near future.)
3. gold last year thought it would be in a range of 900-1200 and liked the sector though was always scared of a correction...and did not think it would hit 1400 but qe2 sealed that.....
not a gold bug but would have some exposure to the sector, it is doing well.
(correct: okay did not give a target, but the sector has done okay, odd that gold has performed much better than the sr. gold companies. gold companies will do fine, and will still have holdings in gold)
4. as I wirte this believe the US economy will grow at 2-4%, and unemployment will decline but slowly, so the world wide economy should do fine, and the emerging markets will double the performance from the US and europe.
(wrong/correct : the US did have growth but it was less that 2% for most of the year, and 4% was to high, should have said 1-3%, the world wide economy did experience growth but much smaller, also emerging markets growth is much higher than the US and especially eurpope which was basically flat to negative, depends on the nation.)
5. cdn. dollar goes to par and above, the fiscal situration is better, and if world markets hit silly season then people will not run to the US dollar. Cdn. dollar is a play on the resources, the cdn. dollar goes to 1.05, the only thing that may stop this is an election, which if it happen probably happen in the spring.
(Correct : the dollar went above par and 1.05 was basically the high, 1.04 and change, believe it was there for a day, the election did happen and the conservatives won a majority, ndp opposition, and liberals were destoryed, but they will come back...)
6. here is a list of things that might blow up worldwide economy not counting war, terrorism, the usual.
a elections in germany at the state level and large losses by the ruling party.
b portugal blows up.
c greece see b
d spain see b and c, actually they are in better shape and only about 30-40% chance this happens but if it does, much worse than b+C, much worse.
(Correct : Europe is a mess, even more than I thought but it did not absolutely disappear, or was not destroyed. see 2012 predictions)
7. the US can kick the debt problem down the road for some time years and years, and years, as long as the economy grows they will have time to fix the problems....if the economy were to contract by -5% then it wiould be big problems that would have to be faced.....this does not happen....not fun if it does...
(correct: no real movement on the US debt problem and it is pushed down the road, until they have to face up to the probelm.)
stocks
1. trp 37.99cdn.
transcanada trades in the us and canada talked about it for quite some time, yields 4.21%
july 36 1.03 1.13P
july 38 1.81 1.98 p
july 38 1.55call
so would just hold it as a buy and hold but the top two are options so the person would pay you 1.03 to 1.13 to sell you trp at 36 cdn. or high for a 38.
the july 38 is a covered call and should beat the bonds, on a shorter term, which get you less than 2%.
note trp stays flat or goes down if we enter into silly season and you will have a great chance to buy...
(Correct : this trade basically worked, and is nice and confusing, the covered calls or puts worked nice on the stock throughout the year the low was 36.10 cdn. and closed at 43.95 today,
anways if you just bought and sold just under a 20% gain counting div...and that works out just fine.
any pipeline worked out enb, did miss out on the smaller pipelines only had small positions, but these did 25-40%., should have seen that coming.)
2. afl 56.43 2.14% yield
I am buying the duck, more later, some things concern me with this play but I like the small yield and cheap valuation...small play.
WRONG 44.86 hit a low of 31.25 the Japaneese natural disaster killed the stock, it still is cheap.
counting div loss -19.18%
3. nick 10.24
hope this has 15-20% in this stock, like the stock still and the valuation, note: this is higher risk reward, still, US financials have higher risk and higher reward than cdn. banks.
(Correct : 12.85 this returned over 28% counting the div., should point out that was first selected in 2010 at 6.95. will stick with it, yes scares me, and will take some off the table but still like it, note: 20% stop loss. but will hopefully have this for a while....)
4. CBR 20.80 bought currently at 22.87
trades on toronto, is the claymore broad commodity etf, .80% believe this might be a good way to play commodities without the equtiy risk.
will talk about this more going forward.
looking for 10-15% with large amount of volatility, long term holding.
(---- basically did better than the market, was flat but thats it, hit a high of 27 but went to 22.24 and closed at 22.72 for a slight loss 0.6%, should have played something better for resources.)
5. CNQ 44.35
trades in Canada and the US, this a is large oil sands play, and is a large holding for me in the mid high 30s, like the company, and at 90 oil this will have great cash flow.
aug 48 call 2.31 2.46
have covered calls most are shorter but put this one because on of the longer ones in the predition thread.
(-5.25% if you count the money from the option that expired worthless and the small div, lost 5.25%, they were down for over half the year, the stock is decent value.)
6. facebook goes public near the end of 2011, but probably in 2012, along with groupon, silly season may start and these are the sign and the valuations, especially groupon. the better they do....the better prices you will get on great boring div stocks....
(Facebook will try to go public in 2012 and groupon, silly season was short this year, by the way group on is a train wreck, stay clear.......)
7. if you are in long term bonds and preferred prep,.....reduce....rates are going to start going up slowy.
maybe more later...
(Wrong : rates went down, did not think they would rise rapidly, well some debt in the world went up but in Cdn. and the US rates went down., the advice was correct though be careful of long term debt, stay to the short term rates.)
(not bad the stocks had a good return biggest winner nick, biggest loss afl, also TRP was a good winner. on avearage the stock were up, so not a bad year....dumbest move was thinking nat gas, and rates would go up. most of the rest worked out.)
thanks
selkirk
