Pretty close to as it should be

[Natural Selection]

Let me see if I have this straight. Meatman is 10-0 on his POD's. I was wondering how the statisitcs of large numbers bears out. Now, I'm doing this strictly as a mathematical exercise. I'm not slighting anyone's abilties or for that matter, extolling them.

Meatman is up 10.7 units for 10 selections. So he has been taking plays which are slight dogs. Assuming 50-50 chance winning:

2 to the tenth power equals 1024.

One chance in 1024 selections

How many selections have been made? There are 206 players averaging around 5 plays each (rough estimate). So that's about 1030 total selections.

Pretty close to as it should be.

Natural Slection

The process in nature by which only the organisms best adapted to their environment tend to survive and transmit their genetic characters in increasing numbers to succeeding generations while those less adapted tend to be eliminated.

Or to put in terms more relevant to MadJack brethren--

The process in wagering by which only the handicappers best adapted to evaluate a proposition tend to survive and transmit their bankroll in increasing numbers to succeeding propositions while those less adapted tend to go mad.

Instead of going mad... I like to go to MadJacks to learn from all the 'cappers. A symbiotic realtionship much like parasite to host.

 

[KotysDad]

Natural,

Actually, what Meatman is doing is not what you would expect from a mathematical point of view. Given the assumptions that I am about to make, the probabability of at least one person starting 10-0 is at most approximately 0.178 Here is how I arrive at that number.

Lets assume that there are 200 people in the pool and each person has picked 10 games.

Just for clarity, in case people arent used to the notation: x^y means x raised to the power of y.

Prob(at least one person starts 10-0)
=1-Pr(no one starts 10-0)
=1-[Pr(person x does not go 10-0)]^200
=1-[1-Pr(person x does go 10-0)]^200
=1-[1 - 1/1024]^200
=1-[1023/1024]^200
=1-.822 = .178

Of course I am also assuming independence between players.

Now I stated that this is an upper bound given my assumptions. In reality, there are 206 people in the pool and not all of them are picking 10 games ...which in essence will bring this probability down a bit. If only half have picked 10 games, then the probability comes down close to 0.10

If anyone has studied college math and statistics, they will tell you that a probability of .10 for this event is not an anomaly, but is still nonetheless impressive.

Meat, keep up the good work!!

 

[yyz]

Fk me!

 

[yyz]

(I meant that in an astounded sort of way.)

------------------
May your bookies children go hungry!

 

[fletcher]

was having an ok night till i see the word stats,my most hated class in college and right behind that was intro to research while working on ms.

 

[Natural Selection]

Koty, thanks for for the input. I got a *C* in stats class, and that was a while ago. Some old nueral pathways fired up and burned off the cob webs after reading your analysis.

I agree... Meatman deserves a hearty congrats!

I think I'll dust off my old text book.

Fletch... you said "stats,my most hated class in college and right behind that was intro to research while working on ms" What is ms?

 

[KotysDad]

You hated probability and statistics, and I hated everything that wasnt prob and stat. 8 years of undergrad and graduate degrees and I totally stayed away from pure/theoretical mathematics. Loved the applied math though. Gamblers should love probablility. Its what makes the world go 'round.

(Spoken like a true math geek)

lol (I love this smiley legend).

 

[Skinar]

Well, the math crowd is heard from. I did poorly in statistics, but loved calculus, partial differentials, topology, complex variables, operations research, and abstract algebra. I totally sucked at number theory though.

My personal favorite remains topology. If I could ever return to school for a Masters I would concentrate there, hopefully working into the math aspects of string theory.

Nice post KotysDad. Burned some dust out of my head also, which has a nice effect.

Skinar

 

[djv]

Ok for a some what old guy. Does 1 + 1 still = 2. After reading the above I just want to make sure before I jump.

 

[Natural Selection]

Does 1 + 1 still = 2. After reading the above I just want to make sure before I jump.


It does if you're using the decimal system. But since we're all using computers I think binary would be more appropriate.

In that case: 1+1=10

 

[Gatorbait]

djv...don't jump