Pride Bushido 8 17/07/05

[sen]

POD
Kimo over Minowa +170 1u
- If Kimo is not taking a dive, he'll win this one pretty easily imo. Kimo is a HW with decent all round skills. Minowa is tough , but Kimo is way too big. Only chance is via leglock, but I don't see that happening either since Kimo is a bjj blackbelt and will be expecting them. Seriously good odds for the matchup.. worried bout it being a work though

Acacio over Misaki -170 1u
- Misaki is a tough good all-round fighter, rarely gets finished and did enough to win against Macaco. Acacio is much better than Macaco standup wise imo. Absolutely destroyed Takase in his debut. Don't think he'll have much trouble on the ground as he trains with CB and has beaten some BJJ bb's. Close fight to call if it goes to Dec.

Chonan over Baroni -185 2u
Baroni has a puncher's chance, but he'll gas out late and be finished or lose by Dec. Chonan is on a roll and a hometown fav.

others too close/bad odds to call.
Thompson over Miller -150
Miller was submitted by Giant Silva of all ppl awhile back. Thompson is no ground wiz himself but if it hits the ground, look for Thompson by sub/tko. Standup both are pretty even imo, either could get knocked out.
Gomi should win easy over Silva -700
Hansen should win over Imanari, too big and too strong. -700
Kang over Semenov -205. First fight was apparently a BS hometown draw that Kang won.
Kawajiri over Firmino by Dec -400 Should be a close fight. Expect Kawajiri to lay on Firmino for hometown Dec.
Nakao over Aurelio +155, I think home town bias and that Nakao is pretty good will get him a possible Dec. Could go either way.
Josh Thompson over Amazon - no odds up yet.

all lines thx to betodessa.com, hope they have more mma/k-1 lines up in the future.

MMA Record this year is 78% on plays so far (18/23). Didn't track the units but was up about 300% until I got bored waiting for MMA/boxing fights and started on baseball....

Also easy money for the odds on fighter NOT to win Pride GP 28/8/05
Overeem -550
He'll be facing either of the CB guys (Silva or Shogun, both favs to win the whole thing).

Whoever he'll be facing in the 1st fight aren't bad bets either.
Rua over Overeem -130 or
Silva over Overeem -155

 

[sen]

looks like Kimo will be fighting at 205, still not a prob imo. He'll be roided up and rdy to go. Lines continue to go apeshit on Thompson, now -210.

 

[Hoops]

If the fight goes past five minutes, I don't think Kimo has any chance of winning. Cardio has always been a problem for him and I don't see him stopping Minowa that early.

 

[sen]

hard to say imo, last few fights were pretty short. Against Royster who is 6'8" 300+ lbs he did gas though, but damn that guy is huge! Don't see Minowa really stopping Kimo unless he gets himself DQ'd (headbutt) or gets a boring decision. Kimo is no longer the big brute with little skills/gas, in this fight he won't be as big but is still a good grappler/decent striker with pop imo. Might be a little old at 40-41, but he's got some crazy tattoos

gl though, no really clear picks for me in this event hence the minor betting stakes. Everyone seems to be jumping on Thompson/Miller, but I haven't seen much of Thompson to be sure. If only they had MMA props, it would be an easy under.

Last few events, Arlovski, Diaz were easy pickings at -400, same with Arona at -200 and Chonan -200? (forgot). hope the odds get better with the K-1 Hawaii event.

 

[Theboundbook]

Have Kimo for 1/2 unit myself.

 

[Hoops]

I agree with the Chonan pick.

Wouldn't lay 2-1 with Kang though. Semenov is a very skilled fighter...I wouldn't make him that large of a dog except against the elite in his weight class, which I don't think Kang is right now.

Good luck with your plays.

 

[sen]

yea, those were non-play picks. Kang's ground skills are v good, little worried bout his standup, but seems to be improving. He was KTFO in K-1 against Kaoklai, totally flattened in that fight. S Korea is a big market so I think he'll get the dec adv. Kang by sub. Would be a play if it was -100-120 or so.

Bushido press conf pics at mmaweekly.com
Baroni looks ripped as usual, but he always gasses out unfortunately.

 

[sen]

wrap
Night of the mostly fav's. Minus Chonan and Miller, all fav's won.

plays 1-2 (-2.5) (Overall 19/26 - 73% -2.5)
fun picks 6-1

* Gomi over Silva Dec
* Baroni over Chonan by KO punch early in 1st rnd. Lost money but glad Baroni gets the win after some tough breaks in the UFC.
* Minowa over Kimo Sub - leglock. Everyone expects it, but he still pulls it off, hats off to him. Hope it wasn't a work
* Kawajiri over Buscape Dec
* Acacio over Misaki Dec
* Josh Thompson over Amazon Sub
* Maximus over Nakao Dec
* Hansen over Imanari KO
* Kang over Semenov Dec
* James Thompson over Miller KO

 

[Hoops]

When Kimo is up against a modern day, decent MMA fighter, he doesn't stand much of a chance. He just isn't that skilled, and as I stated (though it didn't come into play), his cardio sucks.

Baroni always has a punchers chance, but am still surprised he caught Chonan. Should be interesting to see him up against the elite 185-205 fighters now that he has two quality wins in Pride under his belt.

 

[sen]

don't know man, just saw the fight and felt he was worth a gamble for the odds. Kimo had the takedown, top posi in hg, was reversed and Minowa was quick with the straight ankle. Kimo was slow to roll and trapped down so it was torqu'in his knee/leg. Not a heel hook, just a straight ankle in a weird position. I thought I heard Joe Moreira in the background yelling to watch for the leg lmao.

Baroni stands no chance at 205, love the guy, fights with so much emotion but he's little undersized for 205. Chonan is himself a little undersized, used to be around 170 iirc. ** div in MMA is kinda thin atm, Pride ** GP is 205 so most of the top guys move up there. Same with the UFC I suppose with Couture and Chuck etc. Hopefully the lighterweight GP's will change that.

Don't see Baroni having much chance against the likes of Busta, Hendo, Kondo, Paulao who have moved up from 185's to 205. Still plenty of 185ers that will give Baroni a run, like A Silva, Acacio, R Gracie, Crosley etc. Pride will probably put another Japanese fighter with some decent striking skills like Gono, Misaki or even Kondo to fight Baroni next.

 

[Hoops]

I don't think Baroni has much of a chance against any of the top name 205 fighters either. My comment was more along the lines of it would be interesting to see if Pride possibly moves him up to the 'big' show to fight one of the 'name' middleweights, as there really isn't that much to choose from in the 185 division. Except maybe some like Kondo, who you mentioned, as he's in that Baroni weight area..not 205, but really not 185 either. Baroni could certainly make 205 though if he wanted to.

That knee Hansen connected on was pretty brutal.