- Mar 24, 2016
- 360
- 3
- 0
Starting Bankroll (20.10.2016): 1000
Last Picks: 1-0, +40.32
Profit: +110.47
Yield: +3.15%
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6/12/2016
Game NHL - NY Rangers @ NY Islanders
Bet #197NY Rangers @1.83
Risk 22.20
Game NHL - Calgary @ Dallas
Bet #198Calgary @2.18
Risk 33.30
Projected:
EDM -157
BUF 157
FLA 163
PHI -163
NYR -155
NYI 155
VAN 140
NJD -140
MTL 119
STL -119
COL 224
NSH -224
DET 131
WPG -131
CGY -135
DAL 135
ARI 149
CHI -149
Preview for Calgary @ Dallas
[FONT="]My Projected Lines and the odds[/FONT]
[FONT="]Bookmakers opened odds on Calgary at around 2.30 or close to this number and odds dropped on them, despite most of the public will be against Calgary and will back Dallas. My projected numbers put Dallas as underdog, because my model gives Dallas around 42.6% of chance winning this game. Calgary on other side should be based on my model favourite with 57.4% of chance and with that odds of around 1.74. I expect, that bookmakers pay me at least 0.74 of profit if I bet on Calgary and they win. They give me much more, they will pay me around 1.25 if Calgary win, which is around 0.50 more, that I expect and because of that Calgary is value play for me. [/FONT]
[FONT="]
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Match Up[/FONT]
[FONT="]Calgary just beat Anaheim at home by 8-3. They are already playing better, but with come back of their best offensive player Gaudreau, they are also much better in offence. In last 3 games, they won all three and they outscored other teams by 14-5 in goals. Chad Johnson will start for them and he is their first goalie right now, because Elliott is struggling and yes, is doing really well. SV% of 92.8%. Good both at home and on the road, on the road little bit better (93.8%). Dallas on other side was dealing with couple of injuries during the season and when couple of players came back, here we go again. They are again without Sharp, Hemsky, Janmark and Hudler. They lost 4 of last 5 games and 4 of last 6. Their goalies are not playing well and Niemi is playing better in last games, but they will not start with him, but with Lehtonen, based on my latest information. Lehtonen SV% is 86.7% in last 4 games and his record is 5-9 to the season. [/FONT]
[FONT="]
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Reason for pick[/FONT]
[FONT="]Calgary lost the last game against Dallas at home, but since then a lot of things changed. They are playing better and it looks like Dallas will have bad season. This is their revenge game and they are coming to this game with good form of three straight wins, especailly the last one, when they beat strong Anaheim by 8-3. I will go with better team for plus money. Note also that road team is 7-2 in last 9 meetings between those two teams. [/FONT]
[FONT="]Play Calgary[/FONT]
Last Picks: 1-0, +40.32
Profit: +110.47
Yield: +3.15%
----------------
6/12/2016
Game NHL - NY Rangers @ NY Islanders
Bet #197NY Rangers @1.83
Risk 22.20
Game NHL - Calgary @ Dallas
Bet #198Calgary @2.18
Risk 33.30
Projected:
EDM -157
BUF 157
FLA 163
PHI -163
NYR -155
NYI 155
VAN 140
NJD -140
MTL 119
STL -119
COL 224
NSH -224
DET 131
WPG -131
CGY -135
DAL 135
ARI 149
CHI -149
Preview for Calgary @ Dallas
[FONT="]My Projected Lines and the odds[/FONT]
[FONT="]Bookmakers opened odds on Calgary at around 2.30 or close to this number and odds dropped on them, despite most of the public will be against Calgary and will back Dallas. My projected numbers put Dallas as underdog, because my model gives Dallas around 42.6% of chance winning this game. Calgary on other side should be based on my model favourite with 57.4% of chance and with that odds of around 1.74. I expect, that bookmakers pay me at least 0.74 of profit if I bet on Calgary and they win. They give me much more, they will pay me around 1.25 if Calgary win, which is around 0.50 more, that I expect and because of that Calgary is value play for me. [/FONT]
[FONT="]
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Match Up[/FONT]
[FONT="]Calgary just beat Anaheim at home by 8-3. They are already playing better, but with come back of their best offensive player Gaudreau, they are also much better in offence. In last 3 games, they won all three and they outscored other teams by 14-5 in goals. Chad Johnson will start for them and he is their first goalie right now, because Elliott is struggling and yes, is doing really well. SV% of 92.8%. Good both at home and on the road, on the road little bit better (93.8%). Dallas on other side was dealing with couple of injuries during the season and when couple of players came back, here we go again. They are again without Sharp, Hemsky, Janmark and Hudler. They lost 4 of last 5 games and 4 of last 6. Their goalies are not playing well and Niemi is playing better in last games, but they will not start with him, but with Lehtonen, based on my latest information. Lehtonen SV% is 86.7% in last 4 games and his record is 5-9 to the season. [/FONT]
[FONT="]
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Reason for pick[/FONT]
[FONT="]Calgary lost the last game against Dallas at home, but since then a lot of things changed. They are playing better and it looks like Dallas will have bad season. This is their revenge game and they are coming to this game with good form of three straight wins, especailly the last one, when they beat strong Anaheim by 8-3. I will go with better team for plus money. Note also that road team is 7-2 in last 9 meetings between those two teams. [/FONT]
[FONT="]Play Calgary[/FONT]
