Projected lines/totals Basketball Thursday

[Fast Eddie]

Here are my basketball numbers for thursday, NBA is below.

I'm also looking for some help on strength of schedule. That is most important component for the sides and I need to look into other options.

Does anyone use a site or have their own created for that. I've tried Ken Pomeroy's but his strength of schedule is not the answer. It seems when the numbers are off on the sides, I go back and look at strength of schedule and THAT is where I see the problem may lie in my calculations.

The totals have been good leading me to a lot of successful plays moreso than the sides. If I can tweak the s.o.s I'd feel a little better about the sides in college basketball.

Location Predicted Line
at Villanova Villanova 70.0 Saint Josephs 56.0 -14.0
Neutral Villanova 69.0 Saint Josephs 57.0 -12.0
at Saint Josephs Villanova 67.0 Saint Josephs 59.0 -8.0


Average Pace of Game 126.0
Away Team Controls Pace 124.0
Home Team Controls Pace 128.0

Location Predicted Line
at Miami OH Miami OH 72.0 Wisconsin Milwaukee 57.0 -15.0
Neutral Miami OH 70.0 Wisconsin Milwaukee 59.0 -11.0
at Wisconsin Milwaukee Miami OH 69.0 Wisconsin Milwaukee 60.0 -9.0


Average Pace of Game 129.0
Away Team Controls Pace 134.7
Home Team Controls Pace 123.3

Location Predicted Line
at Kansas St. Kansas St. 74.0 Southern Mississippi 62.0 -12.0
Neutral Kansas St. 72.0 Southern Mississippi 64.0 -8.0
at Southern Mississippi Kansas St. 71.0 Southern Mississippi 65.0 -6.0


Average Pace of Game 135.9
Away Team Controls Pace 127.9
Home Team Controls Pace 144.1

Location Predicted Line
at Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee 87.0 Troy 72.0 -15.0
Neutral Middle Tennessee 85.0 Troy 74.0 -11.0
at Troy Middle Tennessee 84.0 Troy 75.0 -9.0


Average Pace of Game 159.2
Away Team Controls Pace 162.6
Home Team Controls Pace 155.7

Location Predicted Line
at Fordham Fairfield 74.0 Fordham 62.0 -12.0
Neutral Fairfield 76.0 Fordham 60.0 -16.0
at Fairfield Fairfield 77.0 Fordham 59.0 -18.0


Average Pace of Game 136.0
Away Team Controls Pace 138.8
Home Team Controls Pace 133.3

Location Predicted Line
at Weber St. Long Beach St. 72.0 Weber St. 64.0 -8.0
Neutral Long Beach St. 74.0 Weber St. 63.0 -11.0
at Long Beach St. Long Beach St. 75.0 Weber St. 61.0 -14.0


Average Pace of Game 136.9
Away Team Controls Pace 136.5
Home Team Controls Pace 137.2

Location Predicted Line
at Wisconsin Green Bay Wisconsin Green Bay 66.0 Idaho St. 53.0 -13.0
Neutral Wisconsin Green Bay 64.0 Idaho St. 55.0 -9.0
at Idaho St. Wisconsin Green Bay 63.0 Idaho St. 56.0 -7.0


Average Pace of Game 118.8
Away Team Controls Pace 117.3
Home Team Controls Pace 120.4

Location Predicted Line
at New Mexico St. New Mexico St. 81.0 Sacramento St. 59.0 -22.0
Neutral New Mexico St. 80.0 Sacramento St. 60.0 -20.0
at Sacramento St. New Mexico St. 78.0 Sacramento St. 62.0 -16.0


Average Pace of Game 140.1
Away Team Controls Pace 128.8
Home Team Controls Pace 152.0

Location Predicted Line
at Washington Wizards Boston Celtics 102.0 Washington Wizards 92.0 -10.0
Neutral Boston Celtics 104.0 Washington Wizards 91.0 -13.0
at Boston Celtics Boston Celtics 105.0 Washington Wizards 89.0 -16.0


Average Pace of Game 194.4
Away Team Controls Pace 195.1
Home Team Controls Pace 193.8

Location Predicted Line
at Dallas Mavericks Dallas Mavericks 97.0 Charlotte Bobcats 88.0 -9.0
Neutral Dallas Mavericks 95.0 Charlotte Bobcats 89.0 -6.0
at Charlotte Bobcats Dallas Mavericks 94.0 Charlotte Bobcats 91.0 -3.0


Average Pace of Game 184.8
Away Team Controls Pace 179.0
Home Team Controls Pace 190.7

Location Predicted Line
at Utah Jazz Utah Jazz 98.0 Portland Trail Blazers 95.0 -3.0
Neutral Portland Trail Blazers 96.0 Utah Jazz 96.0 0.0
at Portland Trail Blazers Portland Trail Blazers 98.0 Utah Jazz 95.0 -3.0


Average Pace of Game 192.6
Away Team Controls Pace 185.9
Home Team Controls Pace 199.3

 

[Mr. Poon]

I just learned Pomeroy isn't listing RPI info anymore. The SOS on his Pomeroy ratings I believe is different than the SOS used in RPI. Not sure if that could be the cause or not.

 

[Mr. Poon]

Ever use Basketball State? Pretty good sight for stats.

 

[Fast Eddie]

No, I'll check that site out.

The problem is that I need more consistency from the sides, and I know that is largely due to the s.o.s

A game like last night where the lines maker had Mississippi St -7.5, my numbers showed -13 and they get beat outright.

When looking at their schedules Charlotte played a hell of lot tougher teams than Mississippi St leading into the game. I'm not allowing enough for that component on certain teams/games.

I'm not going crazy playing sides when the numbers are different from the actual line, I just may look into a game a bit further than I normally would. thanks