Projected lines/totals Basketball Thursday

[Fast Eddie]

Here are today's numbers, NBA is below.

Location Predicted Line
at Cincinnati Cincinnati 70.0 Mississippi St. 62.0 -8.0
Neutral Cincinnati 68.0 Mississippi St. 64.0 -4.0
at Mississippi St. Cincinnati 67.0 Mississippi St. 65.0 -2.0


Average Pace of Game 132.0
Away Team Controls Pace 136.0
Home Team Controls Pace 128.1

Location Predicted Line
at North Carolina North Carolina 89.0 Evansville 70.0 -19.0
Neutral North Carolina 87.0 Evansville 71.0 -16.0
at Evansville North Carolina 86.0 Evansville 73.0 -13.0


Average Pace of Game 158.1
Away Team Controls Pace 147.6
Home Team Controls Pace 169.1

Location Predicted Line
at Troy Florida Atlantic 78.0 Troy 76.0 -2.0
Neutral Florida Atlantic 79.0 Troy 75.0 -4.0
at Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic 81.0 Troy 73.0 -8.0


Average Pace of Game 154.2
Away Team Controls Pace 145.6
Home Team Controls Pace 163.0

Location Predicted Line
at Arkansas St. Arkansas St. 57.0 Florida International 48.0 -9.0
Neutral Arkansas St. 56.0 Florida International 49.0 -7.0
at Florida International Arkansas St. 54.0 Florida International 51.0 -3.0


Average Pace of Game 105.0
Away Team Controls Pace 106.7
Home Team Controls Pace 103.3

Location Predicted Line
at South Alabama South Alabama 73.0 Western Kentucky 72.0 -1.0
Neutral Western Kentucky 73.0 South Alabama 72.0 -1.0
at Western Kentucky Western Kentucky 75.0 South Alabama 70.0 -5.0


Average Pace of Game 145.3
Away Team Controls Pace 143.5
Home Team Controls Pace 147.1

Location Predicted Line
at Louisiana Lafayette North Texas 75.0 Louisiana Lafayette 72.0 -3.0
Neutral North Texas 76.0 Louisiana Lafayette 70.0 -6.0
at North Texas North Texas 78.0 Louisiana Lafayette 69.0 -9.0


Average Pace of Game 146.5
Away Team Controls Pace 152.3
Home Team Controls Pace 140.8

Location Predicted Line
at Louisville Louisville 85.0 Mississippi 64.0 -21.0
Neutral Louisville 83.0 Mississippi 65.0 -18.0
at Mississippi Louisville 82.0 Mississippi 67.0 -15.0


Average Pace of Game 148.9
Away Team Controls Pace 145.7
Home Team Controls Pace 152.1

Location Predicted Line
at Cal St. Northridge Cal St. Northridge 80.0 Pepperdine 65.0 -15.0
Neutral Cal St. Northridge 78.0 Pepperdine 67.0 -11.0
at Pepperdine Cal St. Northridge 77.0 Pepperdine 68.0 -9.0


Average Pace of Game 144.6
Away Team Controls Pace 139.8
Home Team Controls Pace 149.6

Location Predicted Line
at Morehead St. James Madison 72.0 Morehead St. 70.0 -2.0
Neutral James Madison 74.0 Morehead St. 68.0 -6.0
at James Madison James Madison 75.0 Morehead St. 67.0 -8.0


Average Pace of Game 141.7
Away Team Controls Pace 139.3
Home Team Controls Pace 144.1

Location Predicted Line
at Drexel Niagara 67.0 Drexel 59.0 -8.0
Neutral Niagara 68.0 Drexel 57.0 -11.0
at Niagara Niagara 70.0 Drexel 56.0 -14.0


Average Pace of Game 125.6
Away Team Controls Pace 130.1
Home Team Controls Pace 121.1

Location Predicted Line
at Kent St. Kent St. 82.0 NC Greensboro 55.0 -27.0
Neutral Kent St. 80.0 NC Greensboro 57.0 -23.0
at NC Greensboro Kent St. 79.0 NC Greensboro 58.0 -21.0


Average Pace of Game 137.1
Away Team Controls Pace 135.4
Home Team Controls Pace 138.8

Location Predicted Line
at Samford Louisiana Tech 56.0 Samford 53.0 -3.0
Neutral Louisiana Tech 58.0 Samford 52.0 -6.0
at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech 59.0 Samford 50.0 -9.0


Average Pace of Game 109.4
Away Team Controls Pace 114.4
Home Team Controls Pace 104.6

Location Predicted Line
at Western Michigan Iona 62.0 Western Michigan 57.0 -5.0
Neutral Iona 64.0 Western Michigan 56.0 -8.0
at Iona Iona 65.0 Western Michigan 54.0 -11.0


Average Pace of Game 119.7
Away Team Controls Pace 119.9
Home Team Controls Pace 119.4

Location Predicted Line
at UC Riverside UC Riverside 59.0 Montana 54.0 -5.0
Neutral UC Riverside 57.0 Montana 56.0 -1.0
at Montana Montana 57.0 UC Riverside 56.0 -1.0


Average Pace of Game 113.1
Away Team Controls Pace 116.4
Home Team Controls Pace 109.8

Location Predicted Line
at Fresno St. Fresno St. 76.0 Northern Colorado 75.0 -1.0
Neutral Northern Colorado 76.0 Fresno St. 74.0 -2.0
at Northern Colorado Northern Colorado 78.0 Fresno St. 73.0 -5.0


Average Pace of Game 150.5
Away Team Controls Pace 152.3
Home Team Controls Pace 148.8

Location Predicted Line
at Orlando Magic Orlando Magic 97.0 San Antonio Spurs 92.0 -5.0
Neutral Orlando Magic 95.0 San Antonio Spurs 93.0 -2.0
at San Antonio Spurs San Antonio Spurs 95.0 Orlando Magic 94.0 -1.0


Average Pace of Game 188.2
Away Team Controls Pace 182.8
Home Team Controls Pace 193.6

Location Predicted Line
at Portland Trail Blazers Portland Trail Blazers 103.0 Phoenix Suns 96.0 -7.0
Neutral Portland Trail Blazers 102.0 Phoenix Suns 98.0 -4.0
at Phoenix Suns Portland Trail Blazers 100.0 Phoenix Suns 99.0 -1.0


Average Pace of Game 199.6
Away Team Controls Pace 207.0
Home Team Controls Pace 192.3

 

[Fast Eddie]

A couple observations on the numbers so far.

The NBA sides seem more consitant than college. It makes sense because basically the NBA teams difference in strength of schedule is minimal at best, there is a much wider margin of error with NCAA teams. I hope once conference play starts for the colleges the sides will be better.

The totals have been the best and most profitable for me so far. I'm taking the totals that are closest together by home/away pace and playing them accordingly. I have the cutoff range at about 5 points from home/away pace before I even look into a total play. I had the cutoff too low previously and was missing opportunities on plays.

Basically the smaller standard deviation is with the totals the more likely a play. That means both teams are playing at roughly the same pace and it's easier to judge.