Projected NHL Lines and Picks by Underdog Chance

[Underdog Chance]

I am new on forum, so before I start, I will say Hello to everyone.
I like statistics and sports, especially NHL and MLB and I want to share my projected lines with you.

1. My math model contain:
*overall & current form
*goalie performance (for this line, goalie must be the same as listed below, if not, line will change)
*Offensive strength (shots, efficiency & team skill, goals)
*Defensive strength (shots against, goals against, blocked shots)

2. My math model doesn't contain:
*injuries

It is possible, that I will not post projected lines every day, because I have full time job + family and sometimes simply can not find the time for it, but will try to post lines as much as possible.

I will use one topic for my projected lines until the end of the season.
I will also have baseball projected lines for upcoming MLB season.
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Staking:
100 units = 1% of starting bankroll
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THURSDAY - 24/3/2016

Florida -120 54.50% Roberto Luongo
Boston +120 45.47% Tuukka Rask


New Jersey +257 28.00% AVG
Pittsburgh -257 71.96% Marc-Andre Fleury


Carolina +104 48.92% Cam Ward
Columbus -104 51.05% Sergei Bobrovsky


Anaheim -135 57.37% John Gibson
Toronto +135 42.61% Garret Sparks


Montreal +183 35.40% Ben Scrivens
Detroit -183 64.55% Jimmy Howard


Los Angeles -143 58.80% Jonathan Quick
Winnipeg +143 41.18% Ondrej Pavelec


Calgary +131 43.34% AVG
Minnesota -131 56.64% Devan Dubnyk


Vancouver +211 32.20% Ryan Miller
Nashville -211 67.76% Pekka Rinne


Philadelphia -141 58.48% Steve Mason
Colorado +141 41.48% Semyon Varlamov


Dallas -137 57.80% Antti Niemi
Arizona +137 42.14% Mike Smith


Edmonton +198 33.53% Cam Talbot
San Jose -198 66.44% Martin Jones
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Florida Panthers +115 (150 Units) 5Dimes
Carolina Hurricanes +122 (70 Units) Pinnacle
Toronto Maple Leafs +165 (80 Units) Pinnacle
Calgary Flames +158 (70 Units) Pinnacle
Philadelphia Flyers -104 (150 Units) Pinnacle

Good Luck to all!

 

[Nose]

GL Dog!

Have some success

Season is almost over

 

[Underdog Chance]

GL Dog!

Have some success

Season is almost over

:toast:

 

[Underdog Chance]

Yesterday 4-1, +463.9

FRIDAY - 25/3/2016

Washington -144 59.07% Braden Holtby
New Jersey +144 40.93% AVG

NY Islanders +128 43.92% Thomas Greiss
Tampa Bay -128 56.07% Ben Bishop

Vancouver +243 29.19% Jacob Markstrom
St Louis -243 70.77% Brian Elliott
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St Louis (-1.5) +113 (50 Units)

Anyone interested in totals:
WSH @ NJD 4.56
NYI @ TB 4.94
VAN @ STL 4.97

 

[Underdog Chance]

SATURDAY - 26/3/2016

Winnipeg +119 45.75% Ondrej Pavelec
Buffalo -119 54.22% Chad Johnson


Pittsburgh -112 52.80% Marc-Andre Fleury
Detroit +112 47.18% Petr Mrazek


Minnesota -136 57.54% Devan Dubnyk
Colorado +136 42.43% Semyon Varlamov


Dallas +143 41.10% Antti Niemi
San Jose -143 58.86% Martin Jones


NY Islanders +112 47.06% Thomas Greiss
Carolina -112 52.92% Eddie Lack


St Louis +124 44.61% Jake Allen
Washington -124 55.37% Braden Holtby


Florida -102 50.45% Roberto Luongo
Tampa Bay +102 49.53% Andrei Vasilevskiy


Anaheim -143 58.80% John Gibson
Ottawa +143 41.15% Craig Anderson


NY Rangers -109 52.10% Antti Raanta
Montreal +109 47.88% Mike Condon


Boston +125 44.50% Tuukka Rask
Toronto -125 55.47% Jonathan Bernier


Columbus +159 38.59% Sergei Bobrovsky
Nashville -159 61.36% Pekka Rinne


Chicago +108 48.13% Scott Darling
Calgary -108 51.81% Jonas Hiller


Philadelphia -145 59.21% Steve Mason
Arizona +145 40.75% Mike Smith
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Florida Panthers +113 (60 Units)
Montreal Canadiens +130 (80 Units)
Torotno Maple Leafs +141 (240 Units)
Calgary Flames +138 (170 Units)

 

[Underdog Chance]

adding 2 plays:
Philadelphia Flyers -128 (70 Units)
Columbus Blue Jackets +168 (60 Units)

 

[Underdog Chance]

SUNDAY - 27/3/2016

New Jersey +126 44.25% AVG
Carolina -126 55.75% Cam Ward

Pittsburgh -129 56.35% Marc-Andre Fleury
NY Rangers +129 43.61% Henrik Lundqvist

Chicago -132 56.80% Scott Darling
Vancouver +132 43.18% Ryan Miller
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NY Rangers -128 (200 Units)
Comment: I am going against my numbers here, because I like Rangers here. They are playing better and better last couple of games and they are more rested for this game. Pittsburgh will play 3rd game in 4 nights, while Rangers beat Montreal yesterday, but before that game, they had 2 days off.
Pittsburg won yesterday, but Kunitz was injured and is questionable for todays game. With Malkin already out, Rangers must take an advantage. I don't like to go against my numbers, but I will go with my intuition here in this one.

Vancouver Canucks +149 (50 Units)

 

[Underdog Chance]

MONDAY - 28/3/2016

Winnipeg +179 35.78% Ondrej Pavelec
Philadelphia -179 64.18% Steve Mason

Columbus +185 35.14% Sergei Bobrovsky
Washington -185 64.83% Braden Holtby

Buffalo +143 41.21% Chad Johnson
Detroit -143 58.77% Petr Mrazek

Toronto +157 38.87% Jonathan Bernier
Tampa Bay -157 61.10% Ben Bishop

Colorado +215 31.79% Semyon Varlamov
Nashville -215 68.13% Pekka Rinne

Anaheim -150 59.94% Frederik Andersen
Edmonton +150 40.03% Cam Talbot

Calgary +117 46.15% Jonas Hiller
Arizona -117 53.80% Mike Smith

Los Angeles +108 48.05% Jonathan Quick
San Jose -108 51.94% Martin Jones
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Toronto Maple Leafs +218 (100 Units)

 

[Underdog Chance]

TUESDAY - 29/3/2016

Boston -104 51.04% Tuukka Rask
New Jersey +104 48.95% AVG

Carolina +144 40.95% Cam Ward
NY Islanders -144 59.03% Thomas Greiss

Buffalo +248 28.75% Chad Johnson
Pittsburgh -248 71.18% Marc-Andre Fleury

Detroit -142 58.71% Petr Mrazek
Montreal +142 41.25% Mike Condon

Toronto +162 38.20% Jonathan Bernier
Florida -162 61.77% Roberto Luongo

Chicago +148 40.31% Scott Darling
Minnesota -148 59.66% Devan Dubnyk

Colorado +236 29.75% Semyon Varlamov
St Louis -236 70.19% Brian Elliott

Nashville +113 46.87% Pekka Rinne
Dallas -113 53.08% Antti Niemi

San Jose -178 63.97% Martin Jones
Vancouver +178 36.01% Ryan Miller
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New Jersey Devils +139 (120 Units)
Toronto Maple Leafs +218 (100 Units)
Minnesota Wild -115 (130 Units)
Nashville Predators +135 (75 Units)

 

[Underdog Chance]

WEDNESDAY - 30/3/2016

Ottawa +123 44.81% Andrew Hammond
Winnipeg -123 55.16% Ondrej Pavelec


Washington +128 43.82% Braden Holtby
Philadelphia -128 56.17% Steve Mason


Calgary +222 31.09% Jonas Hiller
Anaheim -222 68.79% John Gibson
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Picks later....

 

[Underdog Chance]

THURSDAY - 31/3/2016

Toronto +111 47.40% Jonathan Bernier 5.18
Buffalo -111 52.59% Chad Johnson

Columbus +178 36.01% Sergei Bobrovsky 5.31
NY Islanders -178 63.95% Thomas Greiss

Nashville +171 36.93% Pekka Rinne 5.66
Pittsburgh -171 63.01% Marc-Andre Fleury

NY Rangers +111 47.31% Henrik Lundqvist 5.06
Carolina -111 52.67% Cam Ward

New Jersey +190 34.43% AVG 4.79
Florida -190 65.55% Roberto Luongo

Montreal +245 28.98% Mike Condon 5.64
Tampa Bay -245 70.92% Ben Bishop

Ottawa +175 36.32% Craig Anderson 5.50
Minnesota -175 63.63% Devan Dubnyk

Arizona +194 34.00% Mike Smith 5.79
Dallas -194 65.92% Kari Lehtonen

Calgary +192 34.28% Joni Ortio 5.37
Los Angeles -192 65.68% Jonathan Quick

Vancouver +287 25.82% Ryan Miller 4.94
San Jose -287 74.14% Martin Jones
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Pittsburgh Penguins -135 (130 Units)
Carolina Hurricanes +122 (140 Units)
Calgary Flames +235 (60 Units)
San Jose Sharks (-1.5) +125 (60 Units)

 

[Underdog Chance]

adding:
Florida Panthers (-1.5) +165 (100 Units)

 

[Underdog Chance]

FRIDAY - 1/4/2016

Minnesota +101 49.64% Devan Dubnyk (5.33)
Detroit -101 50.34% Jimmy Howard

Boston +182 35.42% Tuukka Rask (5.34)
St Louis -182 64.53% Brian Elliott

Chicago +105 48.88% Scott Darling (5.27)
Winnipeg -105 51.10% Ondrej Pavelec

Washington -139 58.13% Braden Holtby (5.06)
Colorado +139 41.85% Semyon Varlamov

Vancouver +375 21.04% Ryan Miller (5.37)
Anaheim -375 78.85% John Gibson
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St Louis Blues -162 (70 Units)
Winnipeg Jets +134 (140 Units)
Anaheim Ducks (-1.5) +102 (160 Units)

 

[Underdog Chance]

SATURDAY - 2/4/2016

Columbus +130 43.53% Joonas Korpisalo
Carolina -130 56.45% Eddie Lack

Buffalo +117 46.17% Chad Johnson
NY Rangers -117 53.81% Henrik Lundqvist

Montreal +225 30.79% Mike Condon
Florida -225 69.12% Roberto Luongo

New Jersey +186 34.95% Cory Schneider
Tampa Bay -186 65.04% Ben Bishop

Detroit +112 47.13% Jimmy Howard
Toronto -112 52.84% Garret Sparks

San Jose +109 47.94% James Reimer
Nashville -109 52.05% Carter Hutton

Calgary +109 47.89% Joni Ortio
Edmonton -109 52.09% Cam Talbot

Washington -121 54.83% Philipp Grubauer
Arizona +121 45.16% Mike Smith
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Toronto Maple Leafs +126 (150 Units)
NY Rangers (-1.5) +140 (70 Units)
Florida Panthers (-1.5) +148 (70 Units)

 

[Underdog Chance]

Major mistake with Rangers yesterday. My model suggested me to take Buffalo for 250 units, which would be the biggest play, but I went with intuition and I lost another bet. This was the second bet I went against my math model. The first one was also with Rangers, when model suggested to go with Pittsburgh and i took Rangers. So it is more than 500 units of difference with both plays. I have to be more disciplined and stay away from intuition games.

SUNDAY - 3/4/2016

Boston +119 45.59% Tuukka Rask 5.73
Chicago -119 54.37% Scott Darling

Philadelphia +189 34.59% Steve Mason 5.38
Pittsburgh -189 65.37% Matthew Murray

Minnesota -121 54.78% Devan Dubnyk 5.09
Winnipeg +121 45.20% Ondrej Pavelec

St Louis -146 59.34% Jake Allen 5.64
Colorado +146 40.61% Semyon Varlamov

Dallas +175 36.37% Kari Lehtonen 5.87
Anaheim -175 63.56% John Gibson
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Pittsburgh Penguins -141 (265 Units = 2.5%)
Anaheim Ducks -148 (160 Units = 1.5%)

 

[Underdog Chance]

MONDAY - 4/4/2016

Tampa Bay -103 50.74% Ben Bishop 4.97
NY Islanders +103 49.25% Thomas Greiss

NY Rangers -101 50.34% Henrik Lundqvist 5.36
Columbus +101 49.64% Sergei Bobrovsky

Florida -108 51.87% Roberto Luongo 5.08
Toronto +108 48.12% Jonathan Bernier

Arizona +201 33.20% Mike Smith 5.39
St Louis -201 66.74% Brian Elliott

Los Angeles -186 65.00% Jonathan Quick 4.87
Vancouver +186 34.98% Ryan Miller
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Picks maybe later. No odds yet on Pinnacle.

 

[Underdog Chance]

TUESDAY - 5/4/2016

Carolina +136 42.43% Cam Ward 5.51
Boston -136 57.54% Tuukka Rask

Buffalo -107 51.73% Chad Johnson 4.53
New Jersey +107 48.27% Cory Schneider

NY Islanders +145 40.76% Thomas Greiss 4.85
Washington -145 59.23% Braden Holtby

Pittsburgh -198 66.39% Matt Murray 5.53
Ottawa +198 33.55% Craig Anderson

Florida -147 59.46% Roberto Luongo 5.51
Montreal +147 40.50% Mike Condon

Tampa Bay -109 52.03% Ben Bishop 5.23
NY Rangers +109 47.96% Henrik Lundqvist

Colorado +197 33.71% Semyon Varlamov 5.75
Nashville -197 66.21% Pekka Rinne

San Jose +105 48.77% James Reimer 4.95
Minnesota -105 51.21% Devan Dubnyk

Arizona +156 39.03% Mike Smith 5.49
Chicago -156 60.93% Scott Darling

Los Angeles -103 50.77% Jonathan Quick 5.17
Calgary +103 49.21% Joni Ortio

Winnipeg +215 31.74% Ondrej Pavelec 5.41
Anaheim -215 68.20% John Gibson
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Carolina Hurricanes +178 (170 Units = 1.52%)
Buffalo Sabres +121 (200 Units = 1.79%)
NY Islanders +162 (70 Units = 0.63%)
Pittsburgh Penguins -159 (220 Units = 1.97%)

 

[Underdog Chance]

4-0 yesterday


WEDNESDAY - 6/4/2016

Columbus +128 43.79% Sergei Bobrovsky 5.43
Toronto -128 56.18% Garret Sparks

Philadelphia +100 49.94% Steve Mason 5.41
Detroit -100 50.03% Jimmy Howard

Vancouver +148 40.26% Ryan Miller 4.79
Edmonton -148 59.72% Cam Talbot
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Toronto Maple Leafs -110 (135 Units = 1.19%)
Philadelphia Flyers +109 (70 Units = 0.62%)