Green Bay versus Rams
We have the Rams with 13th ranked passing and 10th ranked rushing offense versus the Packer with the 9th ranked passing defense and the 8th ranked rushing defense.
Going after the 8th ranked rushing defense doesn?t seem like a huge weakness. But I think the ranking is based more on their season rather than their strength.
Green Bay lead the NFC in scoring differential. So, what happens when you get ahead in the game? Your opponent abandons the run and starts to pass to try to catch up. This makes your defensive running numbers much better.
I lost going against their run defense with Henry in the Tennessee game. The big problem was Green Bay led 33-14 going into the fourth quarter and they abandoned the run. Henry had 98 yards with 10 minutes left in the game and didn?t have another carry.
I don?t think that will happen in this game. The Rams defense is for real and they are the best in the league. Tennessee?s defense was 29th against the pass and 19th against the run. This is a classic matchup of the best defense versus the highest scoring offense.
I think the Rams defense will keep the game close. On offense Cooper Kupp leads the team in receptions and is questionable. Goff is still recovering from a hand injury. I think they are not going to let an injured Goff be their main offense if they can run the ball. I think they run the ball and rely on the strength of their team which is the defense to keep the game close.
Living in Minnesota there are plenty of avid Packer fans. One of my coworkers is a huge fan. So, I want to go back to last year. The Packers finished 14-4 on the season and the Packer fans feel they are just one step from the Super Bowl. In the NFC title game San Fran went right after their weakness and ran the ball down their throat. Mosert rushed 29 times for 220 yards.
This should have not been a surprise because last year in 12 of 16 games the opponent rushed for over 100 yards. In 10 games they rushed for 120 yards and in 7 games they rushed for over 140.
Ok Packers fans think we are just a couple of pieces away from the Super Bowl. Beef up the defense and get Rodgers a wide receiver. Boy did I have fun on draft day. They move up to take a QB (who is their third string QB), the second round a running back. Arguably their two best position. No receivers and nothing for the defense. They basically did nothing to address their weakness.
This year they are ranked 11th in rush defense. Sounds good until you look a little deeper. Of their 14 games so far this year they have had 7 games against teams that are in the bottom 9 in rushing.
On the flip side they have has just 4 games against teams in the top 9 in rushing. Those games were the first game of the season against Minnesota and they jumped to a big lead and Minnesota abandoned the run. In the rematch Minnesota ran it down their throats. Cook went 30 rushes for 160 yards and 4 TD?s. I told my Packer friends that I thought they Packers were the only team in the league where the fans own the team ?? I guess I was wrong because Cook owned them. Their other games against a top rushing team were New Orleans in week 3. Kamara and Murray both had 12 carries for 58 yards. Then Henry rushed for 98 yards.
Their games against the weak rushing teams highlights their weakness even more. Four of those games look good from a stat point against the team?s top rusher. Houston 14 carries/42 yards, Detroit 7/41, 8/32 and Atlanta 16/57. Notice not very many attempts and teams that primarily pass the ball. Wait that is only 4 of the 7 games. The other 3 were a little different. Tampa Bay 23/113, Jacksonville 23/109 and Chicago 11/103. Last week against Chicago Montgomery rushed 22/69.
Their defense also ranks 21st in yards per attempt. Now that run defense isn?t looking so good.
This is a copycat league. Look at what other teams did successfully and try to repeat it. In their 3 losses this year it was MN 30/160, TB 23/113 and Indy 28/130. So, if I was the coach of Rams, I would run the ball down their throat, not rely on an injured Goff and keep the ball away from Rodgers.
The posted line for rushing attempts for Akers is 16.5 and 69.5 yards. In his last 5 games since he has averaged 22.8 carries and 94 yards a game.
With all of that said I am going to take my chances with Cam Akers Over 69.5 Rushing Yards
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
We have the Rams with 13th ranked passing and 10th ranked rushing offense versus the Packer with the 9th ranked passing defense and the 8th ranked rushing defense.
Going after the 8th ranked rushing defense doesn?t seem like a huge weakness. But I think the ranking is based more on their season rather than their strength.
Green Bay lead the NFC in scoring differential. So, what happens when you get ahead in the game? Your opponent abandons the run and starts to pass to try to catch up. This makes your defensive running numbers much better.
I lost going against their run defense with Henry in the Tennessee game. The big problem was Green Bay led 33-14 going into the fourth quarter and they abandoned the run. Henry had 98 yards with 10 minutes left in the game and didn?t have another carry.
I don?t think that will happen in this game. The Rams defense is for real and they are the best in the league. Tennessee?s defense was 29th against the pass and 19th against the run. This is a classic matchup of the best defense versus the highest scoring offense.
I think the Rams defense will keep the game close. On offense Cooper Kupp leads the team in receptions and is questionable. Goff is still recovering from a hand injury. I think they are not going to let an injured Goff be their main offense if they can run the ball. I think they run the ball and rely on the strength of their team which is the defense to keep the game close.
Living in Minnesota there are plenty of avid Packer fans. One of my coworkers is a huge fan. So, I want to go back to last year. The Packers finished 14-4 on the season and the Packer fans feel they are just one step from the Super Bowl. In the NFC title game San Fran went right after their weakness and ran the ball down their throat. Mosert rushed 29 times for 220 yards.
This should have not been a surprise because last year in 12 of 16 games the opponent rushed for over 100 yards. In 10 games they rushed for 120 yards and in 7 games they rushed for over 140.
Ok Packers fans think we are just a couple of pieces away from the Super Bowl. Beef up the defense and get Rodgers a wide receiver. Boy did I have fun on draft day. They move up to take a QB (who is their third string QB), the second round a running back. Arguably their two best position. No receivers and nothing for the defense. They basically did nothing to address their weakness.
This year they are ranked 11th in rush defense. Sounds good until you look a little deeper. Of their 14 games so far this year they have had 7 games against teams that are in the bottom 9 in rushing.
On the flip side they have has just 4 games against teams in the top 9 in rushing. Those games were the first game of the season against Minnesota and they jumped to a big lead and Minnesota abandoned the run. In the rematch Minnesota ran it down their throats. Cook went 30 rushes for 160 yards and 4 TD?s. I told my Packer friends that I thought they Packers were the only team in the league where the fans own the team ?? I guess I was wrong because Cook owned them. Their other games against a top rushing team were New Orleans in week 3. Kamara and Murray both had 12 carries for 58 yards. Then Henry rushed for 98 yards.
Their games against the weak rushing teams highlights their weakness even more. Four of those games look good from a stat point against the team?s top rusher. Houston 14 carries/42 yards, Detroit 7/41, 8/32 and Atlanta 16/57. Notice not very many attempts and teams that primarily pass the ball. Wait that is only 4 of the 7 games. The other 3 were a little different. Tampa Bay 23/113, Jacksonville 23/109 and Chicago 11/103. Last week against Chicago Montgomery rushed 22/69.
Their defense also ranks 21st in yards per attempt. Now that run defense isn?t looking so good.
This is a copycat league. Look at what other teams did successfully and try to repeat it. In their 3 losses this year it was MN 30/160, TB 23/113 and Indy 28/130. So, if I was the coach of Rams, I would run the ball down their throat, not rely on an injured Goff and keep the ball away from Rodgers.
The posted line for rushing attempts for Akers is 16.5 and 69.5 yards. In his last 5 games since he has averaged 22.8 carries and 94 yards a game.
With all of that said I am going to take my chances with Cam Akers Over 69.5 Rushing Yards
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
