Props To The AFC
By SPORTSBETTING.COM
The New England Patriots might have a 17-0 record straight up this season and they might be above the .500 mark against the spread but lately they haven?t been paying out at a rate to keep their backers smiling.
Against the spread, the Pats are only 10-7, but have only gone 2-6 ATS in their last eight starts, including last week?s ATS loss to the Jaguars, failing to cover as a 13?-point favorite in a 31-20 win.
Going into the AFC Final against San Diego, where New England is favored by 14-points at SPORTSBETTING.COM, the betting public?s love for the Pats seems to be waning as only 55% of the early action is tilted to QB Tom Brady and company. Bettors are moving cautiously, as the Pats have stung them recently?and San Diego?s impressive showing vs. Indy last week surely has many feeling they can keep this one close.
There?s also a whole other ?game within the game? wagering side to these Championship games, and that can be found on the list of prop bets.
Let?s have a look at a handful of the more popular prop plays for this matchup, and where the money is going on these plays.
1) Chargers vs. Patriots - Team to Score First
Chargers +180
Patriots -240
Even though there has been a noticeable decrease in the volume of bettors wagering on the Pats to cover the spread, the same can?t be said of the ?team to score first? prop. With the likes of Randy Moss, Donte? Stallworth and Laurence Maroney at Tom Brady?s disposal, it?s not surprising to see 80% of the bets at SPORTSBETTING.COM are coming in on New England.
2) Chargers vs. Patriots - Longest Touchdown of the Game
Longest TD - Over 42.5 yards (-115)
Longest TD - Under 42.5 yards (-115)
With the Pats and Chargers ranking first and fourth in yards per play amongst playoff teams and with Randy Moss and LaDainian Tomlinson on the field, the chances for high octane football are strong. It shouldn?t be surprising that we?re seeing the Over 42.5 yards option getting an 85% majority of the betting volume.
3) Chargers - Will They Ever Have the Lead vs. the Patriots
Yes - 115
No - 115
Conventional wisdom would say that the ?No? option would be getting a majority of the action, since the Pats are favored by so much, but strangely enough, both ?Yes? and ?No? are getting a near 50/50 split. This is probably due to the fact that the Pats haven?t been massacring teams right from the opening kick-off, as they were in the first half of the season. In fact, opponents have held leads on them in several games the last month and a half, and bettors feel San Diego has a decent chance of adding to that list.
4) Chargers - What Will They Throw First vs. Patriots
Touchdown Pass -130
Interception - Even
With Philip Rivers walking on a wounded knee, there is a chance that Billy Volek could be behind center, regardless, he still has a solid receiving corps with Vincent Jackson, Chris Chambers and hopefully Antonio Gates, so passing TDs aren?t out of the question.
It appears bettors still have confidence the Chargers are going to do a decent job of protecting the ball, regardless of their QB, as 70% like San Diego to throw a TD before a pick.
5) Chargers - Total Rushing Yards vs. Patriots
Rushing Yards - Over 94.5 (-115)
Rushing Yards - Under 94.5 (-115)
With LT?s injured knee it might be tempting to wager on the under but consider this. In Tomlinson?s absence against the Colts last week, Michael Turner racked up 71 yards on 17 carries and the Chargers also have speed bug Darren Sproles as well, who averaged 4.4 yards a carry during the regular season.
SPORTSBETTING.COM is seeing the Over getting 75% of the volume.
6) Tom Brady: Will He Throw an Interception
Yes - +110
No - -140
Tom Brady only threw 8 picks during the regular season and none so far in the playoffs, but despite this, 68% of the public is wagering on ?Yes?. Perhaps a tipped ball, or the fact the Chargers could get some pressure on the pocket makes the ?Yes? side attractive. .
7) Tom Brady: Total Completions
Completions - Over 25.5 (-120)
Completions - Under 25.5 (-120)
With passing options like Randy Moss and Wes Welker and completion percentages of 68.9% during the regular season and a sharp 92.9% in the postseason (yes, that?s right, over 90%) Tom Brady is really hitting his stride. A 65% majority are wagering on the Over.
8) Randy Moss: Total Receptions
Receptions - Over 5.5 (-115)
Receptions - Under 5.5 (-115)
Could Randy be distracted by this assault charge that came up this past week? Likely not, but he is coming off a game last week in which he had one catch for 14 yards. He?ll receive a ton of attention again from the Charger secondary, so it might be difficult to get him the ball. Whether it?s the abuse allegations on the minds of bettors, or the lack of production last week, either or, bettors are leaning more to the ?Under? (55%) with this prop.
And finally,
9) Player to score the first TD
Antonio Gates - 12 - 1
Chris Chambers - 12 - 1
Vincent Jackson - 12 - 1
Benjamin Watson - 10 - 1
LaDainian Tomlinson - 7 - 1
Wes Welker - 6 - 1
Laurence Maroney - 6 - 1
The Field - 5 - 1
Randy Moss - 4 ? 1
There are a lot of ways to go on this one. Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers both played well last week for San Diego and the Patriots have their usual arsenal but it?s January and the game is being played at Foxboro so chances are the weather is going to be inclement, making the ground game more important than ever.
Maybe that?s the reason the Pats? Laurence Maroney is starting to see a good chunk of the action on this one as the game gets closer.
Whether you?re betting the side, the total, money line, prop bets or whatever, enjoy the games this weekend.
Remember to visit SPORTSBETTING.COM and join the FREE $1 million ?Super Picks? contest. Simply pick winning plays on the NFL playoff games and you can win big money and great prizes.
By SPORTSBETTING.COM
The New England Patriots might have a 17-0 record straight up this season and they might be above the .500 mark against the spread but lately they haven?t been paying out at a rate to keep their backers smiling.
Against the spread, the Pats are only 10-7, but have only gone 2-6 ATS in their last eight starts, including last week?s ATS loss to the Jaguars, failing to cover as a 13?-point favorite in a 31-20 win.
Going into the AFC Final against San Diego, where New England is favored by 14-points at SPORTSBETTING.COM, the betting public?s love for the Pats seems to be waning as only 55% of the early action is tilted to QB Tom Brady and company. Bettors are moving cautiously, as the Pats have stung them recently?and San Diego?s impressive showing vs. Indy last week surely has many feeling they can keep this one close.
There?s also a whole other ?game within the game? wagering side to these Championship games, and that can be found on the list of prop bets.
Let?s have a look at a handful of the more popular prop plays for this matchup, and where the money is going on these plays.
1) Chargers vs. Patriots - Team to Score First
Chargers +180
Patriots -240
Even though there has been a noticeable decrease in the volume of bettors wagering on the Pats to cover the spread, the same can?t be said of the ?team to score first? prop. With the likes of Randy Moss, Donte? Stallworth and Laurence Maroney at Tom Brady?s disposal, it?s not surprising to see 80% of the bets at SPORTSBETTING.COM are coming in on New England.
2) Chargers vs. Patriots - Longest Touchdown of the Game
Longest TD - Over 42.5 yards (-115)
Longest TD - Under 42.5 yards (-115)
With the Pats and Chargers ranking first and fourth in yards per play amongst playoff teams and with Randy Moss and LaDainian Tomlinson on the field, the chances for high octane football are strong. It shouldn?t be surprising that we?re seeing the Over 42.5 yards option getting an 85% majority of the betting volume.
3) Chargers - Will They Ever Have the Lead vs. the Patriots
Yes - 115
No - 115
Conventional wisdom would say that the ?No? option would be getting a majority of the action, since the Pats are favored by so much, but strangely enough, both ?Yes? and ?No? are getting a near 50/50 split. This is probably due to the fact that the Pats haven?t been massacring teams right from the opening kick-off, as they were in the first half of the season. In fact, opponents have held leads on them in several games the last month and a half, and bettors feel San Diego has a decent chance of adding to that list.
4) Chargers - What Will They Throw First vs. Patriots
Touchdown Pass -130
Interception - Even
With Philip Rivers walking on a wounded knee, there is a chance that Billy Volek could be behind center, regardless, he still has a solid receiving corps with Vincent Jackson, Chris Chambers and hopefully Antonio Gates, so passing TDs aren?t out of the question.
It appears bettors still have confidence the Chargers are going to do a decent job of protecting the ball, regardless of their QB, as 70% like San Diego to throw a TD before a pick.
5) Chargers - Total Rushing Yards vs. Patriots
Rushing Yards - Over 94.5 (-115)
Rushing Yards - Under 94.5 (-115)
With LT?s injured knee it might be tempting to wager on the under but consider this. In Tomlinson?s absence against the Colts last week, Michael Turner racked up 71 yards on 17 carries and the Chargers also have speed bug Darren Sproles as well, who averaged 4.4 yards a carry during the regular season.
SPORTSBETTING.COM is seeing the Over getting 75% of the volume.
6) Tom Brady: Will He Throw an Interception
Yes - +110
No - -140
Tom Brady only threw 8 picks during the regular season and none so far in the playoffs, but despite this, 68% of the public is wagering on ?Yes?. Perhaps a tipped ball, or the fact the Chargers could get some pressure on the pocket makes the ?Yes? side attractive. .
7) Tom Brady: Total Completions
Completions - Over 25.5 (-120)
Completions - Under 25.5 (-120)
With passing options like Randy Moss and Wes Welker and completion percentages of 68.9% during the regular season and a sharp 92.9% in the postseason (yes, that?s right, over 90%) Tom Brady is really hitting his stride. A 65% majority are wagering on the Over.
8) Randy Moss: Total Receptions
Receptions - Over 5.5 (-115)
Receptions - Under 5.5 (-115)
Could Randy be distracted by this assault charge that came up this past week? Likely not, but he is coming off a game last week in which he had one catch for 14 yards. He?ll receive a ton of attention again from the Charger secondary, so it might be difficult to get him the ball. Whether it?s the abuse allegations on the minds of bettors, or the lack of production last week, either or, bettors are leaning more to the ?Under? (55%) with this prop.
And finally,
9) Player to score the first TD
Antonio Gates - 12 - 1
Chris Chambers - 12 - 1
Vincent Jackson - 12 - 1
Benjamin Watson - 10 - 1
LaDainian Tomlinson - 7 - 1
Wes Welker - 6 - 1
Laurence Maroney - 6 - 1
The Field - 5 - 1
Randy Moss - 4 ? 1
There are a lot of ways to go on this one. Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers both played well last week for San Diego and the Patriots have their usual arsenal but it?s January and the game is being played at Foxboro so chances are the weather is going to be inclement, making the ground game more important than ever.
Maybe that?s the reason the Pats? Laurence Maroney is starting to see a good chunk of the action on this one as the game gets closer.
Whether you?re betting the side, the total, money line, prop bets or whatever, enjoy the games this weekend.
Remember to visit SPORTSBETTING.COM and join the FREE $1 million ?Super Picks? contest. Simply pick winning plays on the NFL playoff games and you can win big money and great prizes.
