Providing...

K

katts

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Nov 12, 2000
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my own series lines. Yeah yeah... a phantom.. that's me. Like every year, I worked pretty hard on this and here they are. No comments. Just the frickin' lines. Yeah I must be a bit frustrated to use the word "frickin'" - don't ask why; you don't wanna know. Anyways.. not important. But I'm still wondering why we had over 200 posts/replies in the Baseball forum yesterday and barely just a dozen here (excluding Mr Mo's PODs) when the playoffs are knocking at our doors... The NHL is in real bad shape folks.. And that's probably the main reason why it is so hard to make money betting on it: few people bet on it, so the "public opinion", which will boost some of the lines in the NFL, NBA or MLB, has less impact in the NHL. Ok - next: You can often find some tremendous values in series lines. Just like standard regular games, looking for valuable dogs is the best approach IMO. This is *once again* likely gonna be my last post until round 2:

New Jersey -550
MPO: (Most probable outcome): New Jersey in 5

So here... I'll pass on New Jersey unless I find something weird like -350 or better. I'll bet on Carolina if I can find +650 or better (I have some serious doubts about that). the reason why I won't bet if I find, let's say, Carolina +600 or New Jersey -450 is quite simple: I always let myself a certain margin of error. In other words, I don't trust my own lines at 100%. Quite normal. Just don't bet on everything... Look for strong values. Period.

No need to explain my betting strategy for the rest, here are the home-made lines:


Ottawa -230
MPO: Ottawa in 5


Washington -105
MPO: Pittsburgh in 6

*here don't forget about the fact that Super Mario could be injured during this serie. His back is always a problem. I have considered this factor and that's probably the main reason why Washington has a very slight advantage; that plus the home-ice advantage of course.


Philadelphia -120
MPO: Philadelphia in 7


Colorado -550
MPO: Colorado in 5


Detroit -250
MPO: Detroit in 5

*Might be interesting for LA here... I expect to see Detroit -400 or something around. Detroit has always been a "public" team and this often means great value for the other team.


Dallas -240
MPO: Dallas in 5


St-Louis -190
MPO: St-Louis in 7


Looking at the matchups, the more it goes, the more it stays the same. Colorado is playing Vancouver this year instead of Phoenix, while New Jersey is playing Carolina instead of the Panthers. As for the rest, we're now in 2001... right?


Good luck in the first round.


[This message has been edited by katts (edited 04-09-2001).]
 
K

katts

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Forum Member
Nov 12, 2000
417
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So here are my picks for the series:

All the lines are from the so well appreciated sportsbook here at Madjack, Intertops:

Los Angeles +500

Monstruous value. The kind of bet that you win more than 25% of the time. And this is really all you need. LA has been playing very strong hockey in the last run of the season, and this includes some very strong starts from goalie Felix potvin, and as you know, a goaltender alone can make the difference in the playoffs.

LA is a respectable 5-5-2 on the road in their last 12 while they are a fabulous 9-1-2 at home in their last 13. Even if Detroit is unbeaten at home in 2001 (16-0-2) and 11-8-4 on the road during the same sequence (since Jan 1st 2001), this doesn't justify such a huge line. I must admit, Detroit's record and recent performances are quite impressive (especially at home), but as you know, anything can happen in the playoffs. The team which wins the serie isn't always the better team, it's sometimes the hotter team, and here, LA is hot.

Also, D-hockey is what it takes to win playoffs games, and LA seems to be well prepared here. An average of 2.00 ga/g on the raod in their last 9 and a ridiculous 1.60 ga/g in their last 10 homies (1.00 ga/g if you exclude that 7-goals blitz by Edmonton on March 21) means everything. Season record between the 2 teams is 1-1-1 and this includes a 6-3 knockout from LA in the last of those 3 games. *My* line is Detroit -250 here, so this means that I expect about 28% chance to win for LA:

0.28*5 - 0.72 = 0.68 = the heck of a value


Also playing the following, I might be back for write-ups when time permits:

San Jose +240
Edmonton +325
Vancouver +750(small shot)


And also... Carolina +500:

This is not a "smart" bet, I've been yelling all season long about betting on New Jersey to win the cup, at 6-1, 7-1 and even 8-1 (some books offered even more), now forget about it. You can't bet on New Jersey getting those odds anymore. I have above 10% of my bankroll on New Jersey to win the SCup (that and some shares at WSEX). Now it's time for the "safety" bets. I'll make money with New Jersey this year, no matter how good or bad they do. Futures have always been profitable for me... it just takes patience.


Good luck
 
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