Psychology of 6.5 line..Nolan? or Anyone?

[Houston]

I was reading on here earlier (maybe it was a different forum, cant remember) about the psychology of the 6.5 line. The poster was talking about how he thought teams favored by 6 or 6.5 rarely covered. It seems the money would go on the favorite in this situation since people would think "I just have to win by a TD", while people would shy away from the dog not wanting to lose by half a point. Since the books are obviously making money, I wondered if this perception was accurate and perhaps betting on 6 point underdogs would be profitable over the long run. I'd like to hear what people think about this. Does anyone have the record of how teams favored by 6 or 6.5 have done?

Thanks and good luck today

 

[Cash & Carry]

Houston , don't have the stats, but the #6.5 should belong to the dogs, along with 9.5. Some believe you should also look at where their playing at home or on the road. I think nolan has a article on his page re: key numbers thats great reading.. vegas I believe sets these # according to public perception.good luck

 

[phoenix566]

I am a big 'believer' in this as well, but I believe the 'key' number to be 2.5 for a road favorite. I believe a great % of these games go to the dogs outright.

There is also an old 'handicappers fable' that when a line starts at 7, if it moves to 7.5 bet the fav, if it moves to 6.5, bet the dog. I don't have stats on this, but i believe this is a high % play.

Don't really know how much 'water' these hold in this 'new' age of the internet and information overload.....

On another note, since playoffs are coming up, consider this:

It has been debated here to just pick the winner on MNF and forget about spread as it rarely comes into play (ie - fav wins they cover, dog covers they win outright). This is very true for the playoffs. What I am getting at is if you like the dog, seriously consider ML plays as you will make much more profit.

 

[Nolan Dalla]

QUESTION: I was reading on here earlier about the psychology of the 6.5 line. The poster was talking about how he thought teams favored by 6 or 6.5 rarely covered. It seems the money would go on the favorite in this situation since people would think "I just have to win by a TD", while people would shy away from the dog not wanting to lose by half a point. Since the books are obviously making money, I wondered if this perception was accurate and perhaps betting on 6 point underdogs would be profitable over the long run. I'd like to hear what people think about this. Does anyone have the record of how teams favored by 6 or 6.5 have done?

REPLY:

We must remember that the objective of linesmakers is to maximize profits for the sportsbook. Oddmakers DO know that som lines (such as 6.5 or 7.5) will get excess action on one side. Oddsmakers try to set these lines so as to attract extra traffic from te squares -- so he point is.....when you see a line at -6.5, it should be a red flag that the dog is the prefered team for the sportsbooks.

Statistics since 1985 (the Wong database) prove your theory about +6.5 teams being traps. Home teams laying -6.5 are only 71-91 ATS in the last 16 years. Visiting teams laying -6.5 are 33-34 ATS.

As a curiousity, I decided to look at home teams getting +7.5 (the hook seems so tempting). They are only 9-17 ATS againt that number.

Conclusion: Your fears about knee-jerking a play on those teams based on "half-points" are well founded. The books know very well where the public money will go and a line of +6.5 cries for serious consideration on the dog.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[Kidd's Korner]

From my personal experiences in the past 5 years, I take almost any team with a closing line (as close to kick off as possible) of +2.5 or +6.5. Sometimes, of course, it means passing on a game because I have already placed a wager on the other side of the game. But, in my 5 years of tracking this, I have seen a +39 unit profit just by taking a team in college or pro based on the +2.5 or +6.5.

 

[Double Two]

This is why I love 6PT-Teasers in the NFL. The team favored by 6.5 can be teased down to -.5 so then all they have to do is win. Good example is the Bills-Jets game today. I think the Jets will win so by teasing them from -6.5 down to -.5 that's all they have to do. Of course you must pick an other team in a 6-Pointer but usually in half the NFL games played either side wins on a 6PT-Teaser. Good Luck!!

 

[phoenix566]

until the dog wins outright.....

 

[Houston]

Originally posted by Double Two:
This is why I love 6PT-Teasers in the NFL. The team favored by 6.5 can be teased down to -.5 so then all they have to do is win. Good example is the Bills-Jets game today. I think the Jets will win so by teasing them from -6.5 down to -.5 that's all they have to do. Of course you must pick an other team in a 6-Pointer but usually in half the NFL games played either side wins on a 6PT-Teaser. Good Luck!!

I think the tease on this type of reasoning would be to tease the other way...and give the dog +12.5. Thanks for everyone's input though...it's scary putting money on Buffalo, Cleveland, and Dallas. Good luck to everyone!

 

[Houston]

Originally posted by Houston:
...it's scary putting money on Buffalo, Cleveland, and Dallas. Good luck to everyone!

Yea and it would have been a nice 3-0 day...straight up even. Instead I'm getting my ass handed to me... reduced to rooting for a push in the Miami game. Damn this sucks.